Real Estate Information Archive

When trying to gain insight into a market, it is important to parse what people do as much as what they say. The stock market is often a good starting point to parse what people are doing as opposed to what they are saying.

We think three particular stock investments offer insight into what investors are doing with their money regarding housing: the iShares FTSE NARIET Residential Plus Capped Index (REZ), the iShares Dow Jones U.S. Home Construction ETF (ITB), and the SPDR S&P Home builders ETF (XHB). These investments cover homebuilders, home improvement stores, construction material, furnishings, and other ancillary businesses attached to the housing market.

For most of the year, these investments have been mostly flat to slightly down, but have been rallying over the past month. What we find most telling, though, is the short interest – a measure of the number of investors who bet these shares will fall. Short interest is extremely low, and has been falling. This tidbit of information suggests to us that fewer investors are bearish on housing in general, and that many more investors (compared to last year) believe the worst is behind us.

Courtesy of Jessica Regan.

Search all Harrisburg PA homes for sale.

When you are buying or selling property in today's Harrisburg PA real estate market, it's important to have confidence in your real estate professional. Don’s commitment as your Harrisburg PA REALTOR® is to provide you with the specialized real estate service you deserve.

When you are an informed buyer or seller, you'll make the best decisions for the most important purchase or sale in your lifetime. That's why Don’s goal is to keep you informed on trends in Harrisburg PA real estate. With property values continuing to rise, real estate is a sound investment for now and for the future.

As a local area expert with knowledge of Harrisburg PA area communities, Don’s objective is to work diligently to assist you in meeting your real estate goals.

If you are considering buying or selling a home or would just like to have additional information about real estate in your area, please don't hesitate to call me at (717) 657-8700, complete my online form, or e-mail me at don@donroth.com.

Popular financial media can be a good contrarian indicator. When headlines scream one thing, the opposite is more likely to follow.

We see the phenomenon repeatedly. After an extended stock-market rally, a slew of business stories arise to explain why the stock market has likely hit a permanent high. After the stock market has undergone an extended decline, multitudes of stories arise to question the sustainability of capitalism.But as predictably as day follows night, the trends these articles ride soon reach an apex, and markets move in the opposite direction.

Over the past two years, a slew of articles have lambasted homeownership. Many of these articles centered on why we would become a renter society or why homeownership was a relic of the twentieth century.

These anti-ownership writers were emboldened by the drop in homeownership rates, which had been pushed up to 70 percent during the height of the boom. The percentage rate had recently dropped to 66. Now it appears to be reversing. The Census Bureau reports that the nation's seasonally adjusted homeownership rate rose to 66.1 percent, suggesting the decline has abated, if not reversed.

A drop in the homeowner percentage was to be expected: Homeownership has hovered around the mid-60s for decades, so the decline was a matter of returning to the mean. That said, it was unlikely to go down any further. Most of us overwhelmingly prefer to own than to rent, and most of us (especially those with children) prefer the suburbs to the city.

We suspect more people will want to own when they are convinced price declines are over. On that front, Clear Capital reports that home prices increased again at a 0.6 percent rate in October. Year-over-year, though, Clear Capital reports a 2.8 percent decline.

We are always quick to point out that all real estate is local, and many local markets are showing significant improvement. Home prices in Cleveland increased 6.2 percent in September; Texas (which technically isn't local, but the news is encouraging nonetheless) saw housing starts jump 24.2 percent in September; Miami saw existing home sales hit a five-year high, surging 15.1 percent in September.

In other words, markets continue to clear, and we find it encouraging not only that lower prices have promoted more home buying in many markets, but also that firming prices suggest the worst of the discounting is over. This process should stimulate even more buyers to step forward.If it does, buyers are hitting the mortgage market at the right time. The European Union's continued travails with Greek debt have created a surge in U.S. Treasury security buying, which has helped lower mortgage rates over the past week.

However, this, too, could easily pass. Payrolls have been firming over the past couple months, which points to a strengthening economy. What's more, financial crises, like the one in Europe , that seem intractable often turn out to be quite ephemeral instead. Therefore, we still think it's risky to wait and hope for much lower mortgage rates.  

Courtesy of Jessica Regan.

Search all Harrisburg PA homes for sale.

When you are buying or selling property in today's Harrisburg PA real estate market, it's important to have confidence in your real estate professional. Don’s commitment as your Harrisburg PA REALTOR® is to provide you with the specialized real estate service you deserve.

When you are an informed buyer or seller, you'll make the best decisions for the most important purchase or sale in your lifetime. That's why Don’s goal is to keep you informed on trends in Harrisburg PA real estate. With property values continuing to rise, real estate is a sound investment for now and for the future.

As a local area expert with knowledge of Harrisburg PA area communities, Don’s objective is to work diligently to assist you in meeting your real estate goals.

If you are considering buying or selling a home or would just like to have additional information about real estate in your area, please don't hesitate to call me at (717) 657-8700, complete my online form, or e-mail me at don@donroth.com.

Rismedia.com reports there are various signals that the real estate market is on the rise. They have recently reported statistics pointing to an industry turnaround, including a 15 percent rise in housing starts in September; a surge in builder confidence in October, an increase in mortgage applications and a slew of regional market improvements across the country.

A recent Marketwatch story written by Amy Hoak points out that housing markets in the Great Plains, including those in North and South Dakota, Texas, Wyoming, Nebraska, Louisiana and Iowa, are showing the most signs of strength these days, according to a recent report from Veros, a risk management and valuation services firm.

Hoak notes that Bismarck, North Dakota., is expected to be the strongest market in the country in the year ahead, with housing values appreciating at a 5.6% clip, according to Veros. Our Harrisburg/Carlisle market is projected to be among the strongest to rebound in 2012 making now a great time to buy!! Get your dream home now before prices start to go up.

Search all Harrisburg PA homes for sale.

When you are buying or selling property in today's Harrisburg PA real estate market, it's important to have confidence in your real estate professional. Don’s commitment as your Harrisburg PA REALTOR® is to provide you with the specialized real estate service you deserve.

When you are an informed buyer or seller, you'll make the best decisions for the most important purchase or sale in your lifetime. That's why Don’s goal is to keep you informed on trends in Harrisburg PA real estate. With property values continuing to rise, real estate is a sound investment for now and for the future.

As a local area expert with knowledge of Harrisburg PA area communities, Don’s objective is to work diligently to assist you in meeting your real estate goals.

If you are considering buying or selling a home or would just like to have additional information about real estate in your area, please don't hesitate to call me at (717) 657-8700, complete my online form, or e-mail me at don@donroth.com.

You've likely heard the new rules on HARP, the government's Home Affordable Refinance Program, on refinancing underwater loans for borrowers who are current. Credit Suisse estimates that roughly 720,000 borrowers will be able to refinance, resulting in $2 to 3 billion in interest savings annually.

The devil is in the details, and lenders won't be able to adopt the new HARP guidelines until regulators provide more details, which are forthcoming in two weeks. We are keeping our fingers crossed that the new guidelines will be favorable to borrowers desperate to refinance their loans.

We bring up HARP because it could have an impact on the supply-and-demand dynamic and mortgage rates. We expect refinances will accelerate as more details are released. If the details are more favorable than the market expects, that could produce a surge in refinance demand, which could move rates higher.

In short, we don't think now is the time to wait on refinancing. Not only could a surge in mortgage demand move rates higher, but so could continued improvement in the world's economies. The stock market is a useful gauge in measuring optimism and economic outlook. Over the past three weeks, all the major stock-market barometers have been on an upward tear, suggesting more people are becoming more optimistic each day.

Courtesy of Jessica Regan.

Search all Harrisburg PA homes for sale.

When you are buying or selling property in today's Harrisburg PA real estate market, it's important to have confidence in your real estate professional. Don’s commitment as your Harrisburg PA REALTOR® is to provide you with the specialized real estate service you deserve.

When you are an informed buyer or seller, you'll make the best decisions for the most important purchase or sale in your lifetime. That's why Don’s goal is to keep you informed on trends in Harrisburg PA real estate. With property values continuing to rise, real estate is a sound investment for now and for the future.

As a local area expert with knowledge of Harrisburg PA area communities, Don’s objective is to work diligently to assist you in meeting your real estate goals.

If you are considering buying or selling a home or would just like to have additional information about real estate in your area, please don't hesitate to call me at (717) 657-8700, complete my online form, or e-mail me at don@donroth.com.

It might be a little stale, but data from S&P/Case-Shiller show home prices continue to stabilize across the nation. Specifically, Case-Shiller's August home price index shows no change. That said, the index points to a slight price contraction going forward. But this really isn't news; recent data from Clear Capital, Zillow, and other data aggregators already show some price weakness in September.

The pricing weakness is likely due in part to aggressive discounting by homebuilders trying to spur demand. The strategy appears to be working. Sales of new homes jumped 5.7 percent in September to an annual rate of 313,000 units. This rise in sales volume, in turn, pushed down supply to 6.2 months at the current sales rate –the lowest supply level in 18 months.

That's the good news. The bad news for homebuilders is that the median national home price is down 3.1 percent to $204,400, posting a third-consecutive monthly decline. What's more, year-over-year price contraction is 9.9 percent –the steepest yearly decline since the recession.

Some of the sting on new home prices is mitigated by the fact that most of the discounting occurred in the West and South: in other words, in the overbuilt regions in Florida, Arizona , and California . It is still possible these regions will continue to skew price data into 2012.

That said, we remain convinced that prices and sales in many parts of the nation will continue to claw forward. Our conviction is bolstered by news on gross domestic product, which improved to an annual growth rate of 2.5 percent in the third quarter. We were particularly encouraged to see more business investment lead by durable goods orders. We mentioned in a previous edition that business investment is just as important as consumer spending to sustained economic growth. The consumer recovered long ago, and now it appears the business investor is recovering as well.

We think this is good news for housing heading into 2012. More economic spending and investing will mean more jobs and less unemployment. Employment, more than anything, is what's needed to pull us out of our doldrums.

What does this encouraging news on GDP growth mean for mortgage rates? An improving economy will mean more demand for loanable funds and possibly rising consumer prices. Admittedly, the economy has improved slower than most (including us) believed it would. But recent events in Europe suggest the Greek debt crisis won't destroy Europe 's banks and the surge in stock market activity points to more risk taking and more economic activity down the road.

In short, the market is leaning toward higher mortgage rates. Next week's data on employment will be key to getting a better idea on where rates are headed.

Courtesy of Jessica Regan.

Search all Harrisburg PA homes for sale.

When you are buying or selling property in today's Harrisburg PA real estate market, it's important to have confidence in your real estate professional. Don’s commitment as your Harrisburg PA REALTOR® is to provide you with the specialized real estate service you deserve.

When you are an informed buyer or seller, you'll make the best decisions for the most important purchase or sale in your lifetime. That's why Don’s goal is to keep you informed on trends in Harrisburg PA real estate. With property values continuing to rise, real estate is a sound investment for now and for the future.

As a local area expert with knowledge of Harrisburg PA area communities, Don’s objective is to work diligently to assist you in meeting your real estate goals.

If you are considering buying or selling a home or would just like to have additional information about real estate in your area, please don't hesitate to call me at (717) 657-8700, complete my online form, or e-mail me at don@donroth.com.

One of our recurring themes over the past year has been that the laws of supply and demand are infallible: lower prices drive demand, which, in turn, lower supply and help prices recover.

The process is working before our eyes. REMAX reports that home sales prices are down 3.3 percent from a year ago (though prices have risen in recent months), and at the same time national home sales and median prices are up.

You can most clearly see this law of supply and demand at work in the hardest hit home markets. REMAX data shows that Florida has seen significant reductions in inventories as well as rising median list prices. In fact, Miami had the largest inventory reduction year-over-year at 49.3 percent, while the median list price in Fort Myers-Cape Coral, Fla. , was up 34.4 percent – the highest increase in the nation.

Some other hard hit areas, Las Vegas most noticeably, are still searching for a bottom. We suspect, though, that these areas are close to finding one (housing will not be depressed forever). Our chief complaint is that this bottom-and-recover process would likely occur at a faster pace if we could get more mortgage funds to more creditworthy customers.

Courtesy of Jessica Regan.

Search all Harrisburg PA homes for sale.

When you are buying or selling property in today's Harrisburg PA real estate market, it's important to have confidence in your real estate professional. Don’s commitment as your Harrisburg PA REALTOR® is to provide you with the specialized real estate service you deserve.

When you are an informed buyer or seller, you'll make the best decisions for the most important purchase or sale in your lifetime. That's why Don’s goal is to keep you informed on trends in Harrisburg PA real estate. With property values continuing to rise, real estate is a sound investment for now and for the future.

As a local area expert with knowledge of Harrisburg PA area communities, Don’s objective is to work diligently to assist you in meeting your real estate goals.

If you are considering buying or selling a home or would just like to have additional information about real estate in your area, please don't hesitate to call me at (717) 657-8700, complete my online form, or e-mail me at don@donroth.com.

What a difference a month makes. In September, homebuilder mood was in the doldrums, where it has been for most of the year. In October, that mood turned noticeably positive, with the homebuilder index jumping four points to 18 – the highest posting in nearly 18 months.

There is still a long way to go before homebuilders approach the heady days of a few years ago, but at least the market is progressing. Builders began work on an annual rate of 658,000 houses in September, a 15-percent increase over August's starts and the most since April 2010. Much of the increased activity was centered on multifamily homes, which surged 51.3 percent. However, work on single-family homes also increased, 1.7 percent, to an annual rate of 425,000 units.

The National Association of Home Builders, which compiles data for the homebuilder index, warns that builders face pricing pressure from foreclosed properties. The good news is that foreclosures appear less onerous than they did a year ago. At the same time, homebuilders are adding to supply at a record low rate. In other words, the economics of home building are much more encouraging than they were earlier in the year.

The economics of the existing-home market continue to adhere to the recent past. Total inventory declined 2 percent to 3.48 million homes at the end of September, with the sales rate declining 3 percent to 4.91 million units. This came as no surprise; August's sales were exceptionally strong and a slight drop off in the sales pace was expected.

Homes that were purchased over the past two months have been financed with mortgage rates that were prevalent during the youth of the purchaser's parents. In the past couple weeks, though, rates have been trending higher and are up around a quarter percentage point from where they were a fortnight ago. That said, mortgage financing is still a very good deal.

But will mortgage financing become a better deal? Many in the industry think so. We are less sure, especially when factoring in growing price inflation. Overall producer prices are up nearly 7 percent this year, while the core rate, which excludes energy and food, is up 2.5 percent. On the consumer side, overall prices are up 3.9 percent, while core prices are up 2 percent.

The Federal Reserve is trying to hold mortgage rates low by buying longer-term Treasury and mortgage-agency debt. Problem is, the market has been pushing back in recent weeks, as evinced by the spike in 10-year U.S. Treasury note yields. Bottom line, the falling mortgage-rate trend is much less a sure thing than it was a month ago.

Courtesy of Jessica Regan.

Search all Harrisburg PA homes for sale.

When you are buying or selling property in today's Harrisburg PA real estate market, it's important to have confidence in your real estate professional. Don’s commitment as your Harrisburg PA REALTOR® is to provide you with the specialized real estate service you deserve.

When you are an informed buyer or seller, you'll make the best decisions for the most important purchase or sale in your lifetime. That's why Don’s goal is to keep you informed on trends in Harrisburg PA real estate. With property values continuing to rise, real estate is a sound investment for now and for the future.

As a local area expert with knowledge of Harrisburg PA area communities, Don’s objective is to work diligently to assist you in meeting your real estate goals.

If you are considering buying or selling a home or would just like to have additional information about real estate in your area, please don't hesitate to call me at (717) 657-8700, complete my online form, or e-mail me at don@donroth.com.

We've reported frequently on the encouraging data on home prices. The most recent encouraging data comes courtesy of Zillow, which shows that home prices inched 0.1 percent higher in August, with the average home price moving to $172,600. Zillow's data also show that the national foreclosure rate dropped to 9.2 homes out of every 10,000 homes, down from 10.9 homes out of every 10,000 in 2010.

Unfortunately, the good vibes on pricing and foreclosures were tempered by a warning that foreclosures will accelerate once the controversial robo-signing imbroglio passes. In fact, Zillow believes foreclosure inventory will pressure home prices and that prices won't bottom until 2012 “at the earliest.”It's possible we could see national average and median home prices fall. Locally, prices could just as easily fall, stagnate, or rise. In fact, a rise might be more in the offing for many local markets. After all, national data is skewed by a few regions – Nevada , Arizona , Central Florida and Central California . Overall, we still see prices firming and rising in many markets, though that trend might not be reflected in national numbers.

As for mortgage rates, we can say categorically that they have been rising nationally and locally since last Friday, thanks in part to an employment report that showed the economy created more jobs in September than most economists had expected. In many markets, rates were up 20 basis points on the 30-year fixed-rate loan. This shouldn't come as a surprise; the yield on the 10-year US Treasury note – the foundation for long-term mortgages – has risen 35 basis-points over the past 10 days.

To be sure, mortgage rates could reverse course and return to the long-term down trend, but there is a real danger to a strategy predicated on returning to the long-term trend in a market that has been trending higher; that is the obvious: the short-term trend might not reverse.

Another danger is supply and demand. Falling mortgage rates do stimulate demand, but if supply isn't rising at an accommodating pace, there is no guarantee that an ultra-low mortgage rate will be filled. Loans, like all good and services, are rationed by price. If you can get a higher price for your product, you get it.In short, if someone is satisfied with his rate, the best strategy is to ignore the daily vicissitudes and lock. Regret is a tough emotion to overcome, particularly in a market that is showing signs of wanting to move higher.

Courtesy of Jessica Regan.

Search all Harrisburg PA homes for sale.

When you are buying or selling property in today's Harrisburg PA real estate market, it's important to have confidence in your real estate professional. Don’s commitment as your Harrisburg PA REALTOR® is to provide you with the specialized real estate service you deserve.

When you are an informed buyer or seller, you'll make the best decisions for the most important purchase or sale in your lifetime. That's why Don’s goal is to keep you informed on trends in Harrisburg PA real estate. With property values continuing to rise, real estate is a sound investment for now and for the future.

As a local area expert with knowledge of Harrisburg PA area communities, Don’s objective is to work diligently to assist you in meeting your real estate goals.

If you are considering buying or selling a home or would just like to have additional information about real estate in your area, please don't hesitate to call me at (717) 657-8700, complete my online form, or e-mail me at don@donroth.com.

Mortgage Matters

Have the real estate prices in the Greater Harrisburg market begun to stabilize? The answer right now looks that we, as I have been saying, are getting close; but my only concern is that we need one or two more months of validation. When comparing the number of homes sold in June 2009 vs June 2010, there was a 3% increase in the numbers and a 7% increase in the average sales price to $200,419. The average sales price did increase from previous months average that had been in the $180’s, so we just want to be sure that this is not an anomaly.

There are three primary reasons that one may say caused the gain; 1) the effects and benefit of the Home Buyer Tax Credit; 2) there are perceived values in the market and; 3) mortgage interest rates remain extremely low, such as 4.75% for a thirty year fixed rate mortgage. But something else occurred, the higher end (homes that sold in excess of $300,000) of the market improved substantially and the number of homes over $400,000 had a more dramatic increase on a year over year basis, consisting of 14% of the number of sales in 2010. So one month does not make a trend, but there are positives that are beginning to appear. I will keep updating the movement of the market and if you have any specific real estate questions, please contact me at Don@DonRoth.com. Enjoy your summer.

When reviewing the yearly comparisons between years for different school districts, there is usually a relatively small number of homes sold and when you have a few higher priced home sell, the month to month variance can be greatly exaggerated, up or down. Again, if you have any questions, please contact me at your convenience.