Real Estate Information Archive

There is some good real estate news to report in the Harrisburg PA real estate. Really!! The number of homes sold in January increased slightly when compared to January 2011. And the number of homes that are under contract, but not sold, increased by approximately 10% over the end of 2011. Yes, when you review the selected numbers below you can see that not every area had an increase in the average sales price compared to 2011 and yes the days on market increased slightly in some areas. And I also know that one month is not a trend but I do see some improvement in our local market. When you see an increase in the monthly sales numbers, year over year and especially in January, you should take that as an indication of something good occurring. Also, since the beginning of February and totally unscientific I observed an impressive number of new listings go under contract within two weeks of being introduced to the market. Additionally, in conversation with Realtors® and mortgage lenders there appears an increase in buyer and seller activity.

Does this mean that we should have a party celebrating the return of the real estate market in our area? Not quite. There is much more to accomplish such as consumers having faith in the economy, homeowners believing that they can sell their homes, even with less than what they paid for it a few years ago, and believe that the next real estate purchase will be more equitable in the long run.  In my opinion we will experience some two steps forward and the one step back but in my 20 years we have had challenges before in real estate and we will see some more but if you look back ten years and what positives happened to real estate values we will see a much more positive market ahead. Examples I can point to are the historically low interest rate environment and the large inventory of homes to choose from.

The below examples of pricing encompass a large geographic area and if you are looking for some type of report that is more specific please let me know and I will initiate a Neighborhood Area Report for you which can be both more property and price specific. Please drop me a note at Don@DonRoth.com and request the report. Or you may search at your own convenience by logging on to, www.DonRoth.com and click on the search listings tab to see what is currently for sale in all neighborhoods of the Harrisburg area.

West Shore

School District

School                       2011                          2012              Days on Market

Camp Hill                    $149,850                     $225,733         56/61

Carlisle                        $195,349                     $148,285         124/142

Cumberland Valley    $242,919                     $248,766         97/110

East Pennsboro          $158,393                     $141,413         126/130

Mechanicsburg          $193,322                     $171,100         111/232

Northern York             $228,238                     $164,137         129/183                      

West Shore                $231,313                     $144,299         119/124

East Shore

School District

School                       2011                          2012              Days on Market

Central Dauphin        $178,259                     $165,859         132/129

Derry Township         $193,822                     $219,950         106/118

Harrisburg                  $ 44,505                      $ 46,022          115/141

Lower Dauphin          $230,865                     $186,973         154/112

Middletown               $143,675                     $186,973         112/166

Steel High                   $ 48,750                      $ 28,066          95/124

Susquehanna Twp     $158,634                     $142,427         115/104

The data on housing were mixed this past week, but we would say that, for the most part, they listed more positively than negatively.

Last Friday, the NAR reported sales of existing homes rose 5 percent to an annual rate of 4.61 units in December. This marked the third-consecutive month of sales growth. This latest increase helped reduce inventory to 2.38 million units, the equivalent of a 6.2 month supply at December's sales pace.

Pricing was the one bugaboo in the NAR's data. The median price for an existing home was $166,100 for 2011, a 2.5 percent drop from 2010 and the lowest median price since 2002. This is a disappointment, but hardly a disaster. We’ve said many times that national numbers usually lack a meaningful connection to local markets.

The news on distressed properties was a little more encouraging. RealtyTrac reports that homes in some stage of foreclosure dropped 11 percent in the third quarter of 2011 compared to the previous quarter. Of course, part of the improvement is due to the ongoing matter of banks working through last year's auto-signing imbroglio. That said, our own anecdotal evidence suggests an improving distressed-property market.

The new-home market is also improving, just not so obviously. New home sales eased 2.2 percent to an annual rate of 307,000 units in December, which pushed inventory up to a 6.1 month supply. Like existing-home prices, new-home prices were also pressured for the month, with the national median price dropping to $210,300.

Recent new-home data suggest that December's numbers might just be a hiccup: Homebuilder sentiment has improved markedly in recent months, as has the longer-term sales trend.

Speaking of trends, the trend in mortgage rates is expected to hold for the long term. On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve stated that interest rates will remain low until at least through 2014, pushing back a previous date of mid-2013. According to Federal Reserve data, the economy simply isn't growing at the pace it had expected.

The impact of the Fed's revised policy was both immediate and palpable. Before the announcement, the 10-year Treasury note yield had been creeping higher and was yielding 2.06 percent just before Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke stepped up to the mike. After he had stepped down, the yield had dropped to 1.96 percent.

So it appears low base mortgage rates are with us for the long term, but that doesn't mean low-cost mortgages are. A recent increase in fees Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac charge lenders will push costs higher. Expect the fee increase to raise borrowing costs a quarter percentage point.

It's worth pointing out that we said “appears” in connection with low mortgage rates. Nothing is certain where the economy and investor behavior is concerned. To be sure, if we were forced to place a bet, we’d likely bet on January 2013 mortgage rates matching January 2012 rates. We suspect most everyone else would place that same bet. That fact, in and of itself, is a contrarian indicator that rates aren't necessarily destined to stay at today's levels. 

Courtesy of Jessica Regan.

Search all Harrisburg PA homes for sale.

When you are buying or selling property in today's Harrisburg PA real estate market, it's important to have confidence in your real estate professional. Don’s commitment as your Harrisburg PA REALTOR® is to provide you with the specialized real estate service you deserve.

When you are an informed buyer or seller, you'll make the best decisions for the most important purchase or sale in your lifetime. That's why Don’s goal is to keep you informed on trends in Harrisburg PA real estate. With property values continuing to rise, real estate is a sound investment for now and for the future.

As a local area expert with knowledge of Harrisburg PA area communities, Don’s objective is to work diligently to assist you in meeting your real estate goals.

If you are considering buying or selling a home or would just like to have additional information about real estate in your area, please don't hesitate to call me at (717) 657-8700, complete my online form, or e-mail me at don@donroth.com.

Last week we reasoned that it would be years before housing activity would return to levels seen in the mid-2000s. That's not such a bad thing; the mid-2000s proved to be an unsustainable bubble market.

We also said markets are on the mend, which is why we expect 2012 to be a more active and a more remunerative year for those of us in the real estate and mortgage businesses. Even CoreLogic, which has a history of focusing on negative data, recently reported that improved employment, more liquid households, and record home affordability levels could ignite a minor housing recovery in 2012.

Not to pat ourselves on the back, but we've been beating the drum for a sustained housing recovery (not a minor one) since the beginning of the fourth quarter of 2011. We didn't embrace this position because of any special prescience; it was just a matter of understanding basic economics. Markets drop only so far and then they rebound. The data last year suggested the bottom was near and markets were set to turn. That's proving to be the case, and we expect that to continue being the case for this year and years to come.

Courtesy of Jessica Regan.

Search all Harrisburg PA homes for sale.

When you are buying or selling property in today's Harrisburg PA real estate market, it's important to have confidence in your real estate professional. Don’s commitment as your Harrisburg PA REALTOR® is to provide you with the specialized real estate service you deserve.

When you are an informed buyer or seller, you'll make the best decisions for the most important purchase or sale in your lifetime. That's why Don’s goal is to keep you informed on trends in Harrisburg PA real estate. With property values continuing to rise, real estate is a sound investment for now and for the future.

As a local area expert with knowledge of Harrisburg PA area communities, Don’s objective is to work diligently to assist you in meeting your real estate goals.

If you are considering buying or selling a home or would just like to have additional information about real estate in your area, please don't hesitate to call me at (717) 657-8700, complete my online form, or e-mail me at don@donroth.com.

If you meet a home builder, don't be surprised if his gait is imbued with a little more pep and his voice tinctured with a little more enthusiasm, for his mood has likely been lifted by optimism these days.

The latest home builder sentiment index shows that builders are expecting more construction, more sales, and better pricing for 2012. The index moved up an impressive four points to 25 in January. This is the best reading since mid-2007 and marks four-consecutive months of sentiment improvement.

A cynic might counter that home builders are getting ahead of themselves. After all, housing starts did fall 4.1 percent, to an annualized rate of 657,000 units, in December. That said, a few details are worth exploring. November was an unexpectedly strong month for starts, and the fact remains that December's starts still adhere to an established uptrend. If you look back to February 2010, you'll see month-over-month improvements revealed in higher lows and higher highs.

Permits suggest more of the same going forward. Permits in December inched up 0.1 percent to an annualized rate of 679,000 units, which is a 7.8 percent improvement over December 2010. The gains aren't spectacular, to be sure, but we're not looking for spectacular, we're looking for sustainable. We think the gains are sustainable.

The trend in mortgage purchase applications has been encouraging to both home builders and existing-home sellers. Purchase applications jumped 10.3 percent in the January 13 week, the best posting in a month. Removing the holiday hiatus, the trend in purchase applications has been mostly up over the past few months.

The trend in refinance applications has also been up, and to a much greater degree than purchase applications. Refinance soared 26.4 percent in the latest reported week, hitting an activity level unseen since August 2011.

Mortgage rates inching lower to another multi-decade low was one factor in the surge in mortgage activity. But the increase in fees for loans purchased by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac starting April 1 is the more influential factor. This increase translates to a 0.125 percent to 0.25 percent increase in mortgage cost (though some pundits argue that longer-term these are low-end estimates). The fees are already being implemented, but they've been offset by the mortgage-rate drop that has occurred over the past month.

We think the days of record-low mortgage financing are numbered. Fannie's and Freddie's fee increase will obviously raise costs. The revamped version of the Home Affordable Refinance Program, HARP 2.0, will also pressure mortgage rates higher due to a surge in mortgage demand: rising demand usually means rising costs.

Bottom line: we think it's advisable to act now on a refinance or a purchase to avoid the possibility of getting tangled in a refinance boom that many industry watchers are expecting to emerge in the next month or two.

Courtesy of Jessica Regan.

Search all Harrisburg PA homes for sale.

When you are buying or selling property in today's Harrisburg PA real estate market, it's important to have confidence in your real estate professional. Don’s commitment as your Harrisburg PA REALTOR® is to provide you with the specialized real estate service you deserve.

When you are an informed buyer or seller, you'll make the best decisions for the most important purchase or sale in your lifetime. That's why Don’s goal is to keep you informed on trends in Harrisburg PA real estate. With property values continuing to rise, real estate is a sound investment for now and for the future.

As a local area expert with knowledge of Harrisburg PA area communities, Don’s objective is to work diligently to assist you in meeting your real estate goals.

If you are considering buying or selling a home or would just like to have additional information about real estate in your area, please don't hesitate to call me at (717) 657-8700, complete my online form, or e-mail me at don@donroth.com.

To say that the Harrisburg PA real estate market was a challenge may be an understatement. In the news there were the continuous reminders that the market was not what it was four or five years ago. And although we had to work our way through all the negatives, such as short sales, foreclosures and buyers not being able to obtain financing our market was pretty resilient.  For the month of December 2011, total sales were down 3% compared to December 2010 and the average sales price decreased 4% for the same period. For the full year of 2011 the number of sales decreased 6% and the average sales price declined by 4%. When compared to a majority of areas in the United States these numbers would have been hailed as a great year. But there are some head winds ahead before we see a reversing trend of the last few years. Most likely there will be a greater number of foreclosures and short sales in 2012 which could negatively impact values for a period of time but even though these two items have been impacting our market to a degree there were buyers and homes were being sold. So I am anticipating by the middle of the year we may reach a stable market and although I don’t see a substantial upturn in the average sales price we will begin to see some positive results in the second half of the year.

What does it take to sell a home with a almost record high number of homes on the market and the average time extending? Your home must be seen through the prospective buyers’ eyes and what do they perceive the value in your home. It doesn’t matter what the neighbors home sold for a year ago or what improvements you have made the buyer will determine the value or they are off to see some of your competition. That is the harsh reality of the Harrisburg PA real estate market today but as I say that I have heard of multiple offers on certain homes in all price ranges. So my recommendation is hang in there and if you are considering the sale of your home you are probably going to be able to purchase a home that two years ago you thought was out of your price range. So there is hope as a buyer and seller when you also take into consideration of the extremely low interest rates available today. Please look below the chart for some additional assistance.

West Shore

School District             2010                             2011                 Days on Market

Camp Hill                                 $215,883                       $203,863           63/109

Carlisle                                    $154,839                       $169,884           81/110

Cumberland Valley                  $276,633                       $268,674           109/143

East Pennsboro                       $130,418                       $202,236           86/82

Mechanicsburg                        $226,874                       $191,669           110/111

Northern                                   $175,276                       $212,333           65/105

West Shore                              $167,412                       $184,375           104/124 

East Shore

School District             2010                             2011                 Days on Market

Central Dauphin                       $172,623                       $179,880           89/86

Harrisburg                                $ 60,680                        $ 50,400            134/145

Lower Dauphin                        $219,950                       $295,000           53/162

Derry Township                        $189,216                       $264,355           103/72 

Middletown                              $154,048                       $111,686           114/66

Steel High                                $ 51,443                        $ 31,500            122/119

Susquehanna Twp                   $153,279                       $131,405           111/159

You can go to my web site, www.DonRoth.com and click on the search listings tab and you have the ability to preview ALL active listings in any region of the area. Or if you would like contact me and I can establish an Neighborhood Activity Report which will provide you with a periodic report near your home to monitor recent activity. I have said before that we would be exiting this down turn and now I really believe that we are near the beginning of a normal Harrisburg PA real estate market. 

It's really all about the economy at this point. Fortunately, the economy is moving forward, albeit at what too-often seems a plodding pace.

But moving forward we are. The Federal Reserve noted as much in its latest rendering of its Beige Book, a report of anecdotal evidence of economic progress in the dozen Fed districts. The Beige Book states, "Compared with prior summaries, the reports on balance suggest ongoing improvement in economic conditions in recent months, with most districts highlighting more favorable conditions than identified in reports from the late spring through early fall.

”Now, that attempt to say something without saying too much doesn't really enlighten, but it does affirm what we've known all along – the economic recovery is progressing.

Home prices might also be progressing better than the national numbers suggest. Zillow Inc. reports home prices were flat in November, with the average national home price at $147,800. But the housing market is a local market, and local markets appear to be improving better than the national numbers report (which can be skewed by outliers, e.g. Las Vegas ).Of the 165 housing markets tracked by Zillow, 60 percent reported stable or appreciating home values in November. Notable winning locales include Los Angeles, Washington D.C, Miami , San Francisco , and Detroit.

The flow of private money into housing is also encouraging. We've noted over the past month that hedge funds, investing platforms for the wealthy, are directing more funds into housing stocks. In addition, Robert Shiller, co-inventor of the S&P/Case-Shiller Real Estate Index, noted at a recent American Economic Association function that the futures market for real estate (basically bets on the direction of home prices) is pointing to rising prices.

We expect interest in residential real estate to further bloom in 2012. Homes are enticingly affordable these days. U.S. Department of Housing and U.S. Treasury Department data show that home affordability is at a level unseen since 1971. In fact, median-income families today have double the funds needed to cover the cost of owning a home than they did 40 years ago.

Historically low mortgage rates also contribute to the affordability quotient, and rates continue to skim along the bottom, as they have done for the past two months.

But rates aren't the only consideration in the cost of a loan. Fees come into play. Unfortunately, borrowers face higher fees in the near future. The guarantee fee on loans sold to Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae is set to increase a minimum of 10 basis points effective April 1. Many industry watchers, though, expect the actual cost to fall within the 20-to-80 basis-point range.

Today, affordability is at a multi-decade high, and mortgage rates are at a multi-decade low. We see few economic reasons for anyone in the market for a mortgage and house not to take the plunge.

Courtesy of Jessica Regan.

Search all Harrisburg PA homes for sale.

When you are buying or selling property in today's Harrisburg PA real estate market, it's important to have confidence in your real estate professional. Don’s commitment as your Harrisburg PA REALTOR® is to provide you with the specialized real estate service you deserve.

When you are an informed buyer or seller, you'll make the best decisions for the most important purchase or sale in your lifetime. That's why Don’s goal is to keep you informed on trends in Harrisburg PA real estate. With property values continuing to rise, real estate is a sound investment for now and for the future.

As a local area expert with knowledge of Harrisburg PA area communities, Don’s objective is to work diligently to assist you in meeting your real estate goals.

If you are considering buying or selling a home or would just like to have additional information about real estate in your area, please don't hesitate to call me at (717) 657-8700, complete my online form, or e-mail me at don@donroth.com.

Sales recorded for the Central Penn Multi List decreased by 4% for all homes recorded including Perry County, portions of Lancaster, Lebanon and York Counties.

Search all Harrisburg PA homes for sale.

When you are buying or selling property in today's Harrisburg PA real estate market, it's important to have confidence in your real estate professional. Don’s commitment as your Harrisburg PA REALTOR® is to provide you with the specialized real estate service you deserve.

When you are an informed buyer or seller, you'll make the best decisions for the most important purchase or sale in your lifetime. That's why Don’s goal is to keep you informed on trends in Harrisburg PA real estate. With property values continuing to rise, real estate is a sound investment for now and for the future.

As a local area expert with knowledge of Harrisburg PA area communities, Don’s objective is to work diligently to assist you in meeting your real estate goals.

If you are considering buying or selling a home or would just like to have additional information about real estate in your area, please don't hesitate to call me at (717) 657-8700, complete my online form, or e-mail me at don@donroth.com.

We tend to view most situations from an optimist's perspective, because optimists are more likely to see solutions that pessimists overlook; therefore, optimists tend to be better problem solvers.

Optimism, we have found, is also usually rewarded. The housing recovery has taken longer than most of us would like, but the market is recovering, and the recovery will likely gain pace as we progress through 2012.

Mortgage delinquencies are one area of continued progress. TransUnion forecasts delinquencies of 60 days or more will peak at 6 percent of all mortgages during the first quarter of 2012, and then fall to 5 percent by year's end. This is actually a continuation of a longer-term trend that has been overlooked: delinquencies this year are expected to fall 7 percent, which follows a 7 percent decline in 2010.

The trend in the National Association of Home Builders/First American Improving Markets Index is also cause for optimism. According to the index, the number of improving housing markets expanded for a fourth-consecutive month, rising 37 percent to 41 in December from 30 in November. The index states that the expansion in both number and geographic diversity of markets is proof that markets continue to grow more heterogeneous; that is, more dependent on local factors than national ones. This is a point we've been making for the past six months.

The news on pricing was less upbeat. CoreLogic reports that house prices dipped nationally month-over-month in October. Year-over-year, prices have declined 3.9 percent, but only 0.5 percent when distressed properties are removed from the equation.

A recent report by Barclays Capital should help ease pricing concerns. According to Barclays, the housing market will be buoyed by improving job growth and by the fact that prices for non-distressed properties are stabilizing without government support. On price stabilization, Barclays housing analyst Stephen Kim writes, “[W]e are amazed at how little attention it [the recovery in non-distressed homes] has been getting from the media and the street.

”We, on the other hand, are less amazed. We've been hammering the point on stabilizing prices for months, but we also know that bad news always sells better than good news.Speaking of good news, mortgage rates continue to hold steady and near multi-decade lows. We've noticed that the yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury notes has trended lower most of this past week, which has been something of a surprise, given that the economic news, for the most part, has been positive.

Mortgage rates have been holding steady for the past month or so, but we think upward pressure is steadily building – mostly due to an improving economy and job growth (and for a reason we'll explicate below).

Courtesy of Jessica Regan.

Search all Harrisburg PA homes for sale.

When you are buying or selling property in today's Harrisburg PA real estate market, it's important to have confidence in your real estate professional. Don’s commitment as your Harrisburg PA REALTOR® is to provide you with the specialized real estate service you deserve.

When you are an informed buyer or seller, you'll make the best decisions for the most important purchase or sale in your lifetime. That's why Don’s goal is to keep you informed on trends in Harrisburg PA real estate. With property values continuing to rise, real estate is a sound investment for now and for the future.

As a local area expert with knowledge of Harrisburg PA area communities, Don’s objective is to work diligently to assist you in meeting your real estate goals.

If you are considering buying or selling a home or would just like to have additional information about real estate in your area, please don't hesitate to call me at (717) 657-8700, complete my online form, or e-mail me at don@donroth.com.

One significant mistake people often make when gauging the future is to view the future as a simple extension of today. In other words, they view the economy as static – especially after a period of turmoil – and they forget that economies, populations, and wealth continue to grow.

We broach this topic because of something famed-investor Warren Buffett recently said on CNBC. In short, Mr. Buffett said that he didn't think the housing market needed more stimulus; it needed more households to be created.

That's exactly what has occurred every decade since 1950. What's more, households have actually grown at a faster clip than population. Over the past decade, the U.S. population grew 9.5 percent, while households grew 12.5 percent (for a variety of reasons: growing population, divorce, single living, smaller families). Household growth is expected to continue to outpace population growth into the relevant future.

The point is not to focus on static numbers and to factor on future growth. More housing demand is created each year, which, in turn, helps absorb supply, which has been increasing (at least new homes) at a snail's pace over the past few years.The trend in household growth is just one more reason we look forward to an improved housing market in 2012.

Courtesy of Jessica Regan.

Search all Harrisburg PA homes for sale.

When you are buying or selling property in today's Harrisburg PA real estate market, it's important to have confidence in your real estate professional. Don’s commitment as your Harrisburg PA REALTOR® is to provide you with the specialized real estate service you deserve.

When you are an informed buyer or seller, you'll make the best decisions for the most important purchase or sale in your lifetime. That's why Don’s goal is to keep you informed on trends in Harrisburg PA real estate. With property values continuing to rise, real estate is a sound investment for now and for the future.

As a local area expert with knowledge of Harrisburg PA area communities, Don’s objective is to work diligently to assist you in meeting your real estate goals.

If you are considering buying or selling a home or would just like to have additional information about real estate in your area, please don't hesitate to call me at (717) 657-8700, complete my online form, or e-mail me at don@donroth.com.

If we were to survey the landscape to see if people rate the decline in housing prices as either a curse or a blessing, we are sure most would say curse. After all, most homeowners have suffered a loss of equity over the past five years.

However, there is an upside to the decline in home prices, particularly for first-time homebuyers and owners looking to trade up, and that's affordability. According to financial data provider Fiserv, the monthly mortgage payment for a median-priced single-family home is 40 percent cheaper than it was five years ago, falling to $700 from $1,140.

Lower prices are really the only way to remedy a supply glut. Watching an asset's price fall is unpleasant, to be sure, but prices fall only so far and the glut clears, and then prices generally rise.

For example, Miami was one of the most overbuilt metropolitan regions and suffered serious price deflation. But the glut in Miami appears to have cleared, thanks to lower prices stimulating more demand. In the third quarter of 2011, Miami home sales jumped 51 percent from a year ago. What's more, prices are again on the rise: the average sales price in Miami for a single-family home has risen 19 percent year-over-year.

It is more informative to focus on local numbers than it is to focus on national numbers. The National Association of Realtors reports that the national median single-family home price slipped 4.7 percent year-over-year to $169,500 in the third quarter. That said, the NAR's national median price really doesn't mean much to any specific local market.

The bottom line for us is that we've seen enough evidence of markets clearing to suggest more markets will resemble Miami in 2012. Fiserv, though expecting some price weakness over the next few months, expects most major markets to post significant price gains in the second half of 2012.

What will financing rates look like in 2012? We thought mortgage rates would be higher this year than in 2010; that hasn't been the case. The Federal Reserve has plainly stated that it is buying long-term securities in order to hold long-term borrowing rates low. It can be silly to fight the Fed.

Then again, markets can be potent forces. Consider this past week: news that another Mediterranean country, Italy , is close to insolvency did little to move interest rates or mortgage rates. In other words, investors weren't rushing into U.S. Treasury securities. In fact, Treasury rates and mortgage rates held steady for the week.

When the Greek crisis occurred, Treasury rates and mortgage rates dropped perceptibly. The fact mortgage rates hardly moved with the latest crisis suggests markets might be less willing to accept ultra-low rates in exchange for a haven from risk.

Courtesy of Jessica Regan.

Search all Harrisburg PA homes for sale.

When you are buying or selling property in today's Harrisburg PA real estate market, it's important to have confidence in your real estate professional. Don’s commitment as your Harrisburg PA REALTOR® is to provide you with the specialized real estate service you deserve.

When you are an informed buyer or seller, you'll make the best decisions for the most important purchase or sale in your lifetime. That's why Don’s goal is to keep you informed on trends in Harrisburg PA real estate. With property values continuing to rise, real estate is a sound investment for now and for the future.

As a local area expert with knowledge of Harrisburg PA area communities, Don’s objective is to work diligently to assist you in meeting your real estate goals.

If you are considering buying or selling a home or would just like to have additional information about real estate in your area, please don't hesitate to call me at (717) 657-8700, complete my online form, or e-mail me at don@donroth.com.