Real Estate Information Archive

It's getting easier to understand why home builder sentiment keeps rising monthly: sales and prices are now in an established uptrend.Indeed, new home sales recorded a very solid 7.6 percent increase in May, posting at a much higher-than-expected 369,000 annualized units. Now, it's true that the national median price of a new home sold in May edged down 0.6 percent to $234,500 for the month but when we look at the past 12 months, we see that new home prices are up 5.6 percent.

We see no reason why prices will backslide for long. There simply isn't enough supply to satisfy demand. The surge of buying in May lowered new-home inventory to a 4.7-month supply at the current sales rate. This is the lowest inventory level since 2005.Lack of inventory is contributing to firming prices, to be sure, but it's also impeding sales growth. While the new home sales report exceeded the consensus estimate, sales might have posted an even stronger gain if builders had more inventory for sale. Having been burned in the past with false recovery signals, builders have maintained a conservative stance on both “spec” building and community-count growth, thus limiting sales potential.

Low inventory levels could become a greater issue in the existing-home sales market as well. Many of us have already dealt with lack of inventory in certain categories of homes. In many markets, supply is being kept tight for two primary reasons: Negative equity is one and expectations is the other.Potential sellers simply don't want to (or can't) come to the table with additional money, so they don't list their homes. As for expectations, more potential sellers are anticipating rising prices; therefore, they're holding inventory off the market anticipating higher prices. Expectations, in this way, is a self-fulfilling prophesy.

Given the trends in inventory and median prices, we weren't at all surprised to read that the S&P/Case-Shiller home price index posted a strong gain in April. In fact, the index surged 0.7 percent – an unusually large gain, last exceeded in April 2010. If you'll remember, back then, the market was riding on the expiration of the federal tax credits for first-time home buyers. The market today is without a doubt much healthier than it was in 2010.

We expect the market to remain healthy into the distant future. The NAR reports that home contract signings rose for the 13 th consecutive month, with pending home sales rising 13.3% over May 2011 and nearly 6% over April 2012. According NAR economist Lawrence Yun, we should expect to see a 9 percent to 10 percent improvement in total existing home sales for 2012.

The question that looms is, can shadow inventory derail the recovery? It's a legitimate question. After all, there are four million housing units that could potentially come to market as foreclosed or short-sale property. We're not particularly worried, though. We've previously argued that we don't think shadow inventory is a game changer. Banks are processing foreclosures in an orderly and rational fashion, while at the same time they are taking on more short sales. As we like to say, markets are clearing.

Here's a another consideration on shadow inventory. We consistently write about housing starts and new home sales, but we rarely talk about lost homes; that is, homes that are lost through neglect, fire, and natural disasters. According to U.S. Census data, we lose an estimated 300,000 housing units from such events, most of these are existing home, and many, we suspect, are in the shadow inventory. So, again, we think the housing recovery is on track for good.

Courtesy of Jessica Regan.

Search all Harrisburg PA homes for sale.

When you are buying or selling property in today's Harrisburg PA real estate market, it's important to have confidence in your real estate professional. Don’s commitment as your Harrisburg PA REALTOR® is to provide you with the specialized real estate service you deserve.

When you are an informed buyer or seller, you'll make the best decisions for the most important purchase or sale in your lifetime. That's why Don’s goal is to keep you informed on trends in Harrisburg PA real estate. With property values continuing to rise, real estate is a sound investment for now and for the future.

As a local area expert with knowledge of Harrisburg PA area communities, Don’s objective is to work diligently to assist you in meeting your real estate goals.

If you are considering buying or selling a home or would just like to have additional information about real estate in your area, please don't hesitate to call me at (717) 657-8700, complete my online form, or e-mail me at don@donroth.com.

If markets are anything, they are dynamic. The Arizona housing market is a perfect example. For years we did nothing but drone on about the intractability of Arizona's housing woes: the surging foreclosures, the soaring vacancies, the plunging home values, the mounting REO properties. The market was going nowhere but down, and there was no end in sight.

Now we find ourselves writing weekly on the Arizona recovery. A recent Bloomberg article reveals just how much the market has recovered, reporting that the inventory of previously owned houses for sale in Phoenix dropped 54 percent in April from a year earlier. This, in turn, has help lift the median sales price up 25 percent to $140,000.

This phenomenon of markets clearing happens almost imperceptibly at first, but then it becomes very perceptible. One month a prospective buyer is pondering a home he could buy for $200,000; the next month that same house lists for $220,000.

The point we want to emphasis is that markets turn much quicker than most market participants realize, which is why we continue to advise buyers not to wait until the turn is perceptible, because when that occurs the best deals vanish – Arizona is proof positive of that.

Courtesy of Jessica Regan.

Search all Harrisburg PA homes for sale.

When you are buying or selling property in today's Harrisburg PA real estate market, it's important to have confidence in your real estate professional. Don’s commitment as your Harrisburg PA REALTOR® is to provide you with the specialized real estate service you deserve.

When you are an informed buyer or seller, you'll make the best decisions for the most important purchase or sale in your lifetime. That's why Don’s goal is to keep you informed on trends in Harrisburg PA real estate. With property values continuing to rise, real estate is a sound investment for now and for the future.

As a local area expert with knowledge of Harrisburg PA area communities, Don’s objective is to work diligently to assist you in meeting your real estate goals.

If you are considering buying or selling a home or would just like to have additional information about real estate in your area, please don't hesitate to call me at (717) 657-8700, complete my online form, or e-mail me at don@donroth.com.

No one number can explain a market. We mention that because the headline number on housing starts points to lower new home sales. The headline number says that housing starts declined 4.8 percent in May after rising 5.4 percent in April. The pace of starts fell to 708,000 annualized units, which fell short of the market's expectation for 720,000 units.

When we read past the headline, we find the drop was attributable to the volatile multi-family component, which fell 21.3 percent. The good news is that the much larger, more important single-family component posted another monthly gain, rising 3.2 percent for the month.

The home builder sentiment index also tells us something. The number rose to a multi-year high of 29 this month. When the index is broken down into components, we find that the outlook for single-family homes is even higher: that component is up two points to a recovery high of 32. Given the dearth of new-home inventory, we expect sentiment to continue to improve as we progress through the summer months.

As for existing homes, the market might be sputtering. Existing home sales fell 1.5 percent to 4.55 million annualized units in May. Existing home sales began the year at a 4.63 million annualized rate and have had trouble building off that base.

Though sales may have stagnated, pricing hasn't. The national median price of an existing home is now at $182,600, a 7.6 percent year-over-year gain. Inventory remains stable at a 6.6-month supply at the going sales pace. This suggests to us that distressed properties continue to be much less of a problem than pundits had predicted earlier in the year.

Of course, any enthusiasm or distress aroused by a national number needs to be tempered. All markets are local, and values often differ from zip code to zip code (and even street to street). That said, the national number is an aggregate number; that means it's composed of individual local markets. The up trend in national numbers over the past year tells us more local markets are on the rise.

Mortgage lending rates, on the other hand, are not on the rise. They remain at the lowest levels on record. In fact, in many markets they posted a new low this past week. We don't see rates rising soon, either; the Federal Reserve is determined that they remain at these low levels. At the latest Fed board meeting it was decided that the Fed will continue to buy long-term U.S. Treasury notes and mortgage-backed securities by rolling money from maturing short-term notes into these securities. More demand means lower yield.

Our friends in Greece and Spain are also driving demand. Every time these countries announce another round of fiscal woe, more money leaves these countries' banks and flows into U.S. Treasury and MBS securities, thus helping to hold mortgage lending rates low at the retail level.Borrowers probably won't be penalized for procrastinating, at least into the near future. That said, markets can turn, and they can turn much quicker than many buyers and sellers realize.

Courtesy of Jessica Regan.

Search all Harrisburg PA homes for sale.

When you are buying or selling property in today's Harrisburg PA real estate market, it's important to have confidence in your real estate professional. Don’s commitment as your Harrisburg PA REALTOR® is to provide you with the specialized real estate service you deserve.

When you are an informed buyer or seller, you'll make the best decisions for the most important purchase or sale in your lifetime. That's why Don’s goal is to keep you informed on trends in Harrisburg PA real estate. With property values continuing to rise, real estate is a sound investment for now and for the future.

As a local area expert with knowledge of Harrisburg PA area communities, Don’s objective is to work diligently to assist you in meeting your real estate goals.

If you are considering buying or selling a home or would just like to have additional information about real estate in your area, please don't hesitate to call me at (717) 657-8700, complete my online form, or e-mail me at don@donroth.com.

With mortgage rates being so low, you may want to take a look at some of the West Shore homes you can purchase for a $800 monthly principal and interest payment. Naturally, there would be your real estate taxes and homeowners insurance and possibly some mortgage insurance but compared to renting this may be something to be considered.

Why am I using $800 as a monthly payment? Very simple and that is if you consider the adds for apartments in the area that appears to a common dollar amount for rental. So if you are interested please contact me at Don@DonRoth.com and let’s begin your house hunting and stop paying your landlord’s mortgage payment and make you own equity investment.

At today’s rate of 3.625%, you could afford a mortgage of $175,336 and your mortgage principal and interest payment would be $800 per month. One last thing YES mortgage lenders ARE approving mortgages on West Shore homes.

Search all Harrisburg PA homes for sale.

When you are buying or selling property in today's Harrisburg PA real estate market, it's important to have confidence in your real estate professional. Don’s commitment as your Harrisburg PA REALTOR® is to provide you with the specialized real estate service you deserve.

When you are an informed buyer or seller, you'll make the best decisions for the most important purchase or sale in your lifetime. That's why Don’s goal is to keep you informed on trends in Harrisburg PA real estate. With property values continuing to rise, real estate is a sound investment for now and for the future.

As a local area expert with knowledge of Harrisburg PA area communities, Don’s objective is to work diligently to assist you in meeting your real estate goals.

If you are considering buying or selling a home or would just like to have additional information about real estate in your area, please don't hesitate to call me at (717) 657-8700, complete my online form, or e-mail me at don@donroth.com.

To be honest, we can't say any investment is the perfect investment (then again, no one can). Personal circumstances and goals determine what investment is most appropriate to any individual investor.

Nevertheless, there is a heckuva lot to like about residential real estate these days: prices rising off a bottom, low financing rates, rising rental rates, shrinking inventory. This is almost the opposite of what the market was like six years ago. Back then, most everyone would have been better off selling rather than buying, as hindsight has clearly proven. 

Of course, there are no guarantees when it comes to investing or price appreciation, but for investors or occupiers who plan to own their property for at least five years, we see little downside risk and a lot of upside potential at this stage in the market.

Search all Harrisburg PA homes for sale.

When you are buying or selling property in today's Harrisburg PA real estate market, it's important to have confidence in your real estate professional. Don’s commitment as your Harrisburg PA REALTOR® is to provide you with the specialized real estate service you deserve.

When you are an informed buyer or seller, you'll make the best decisions for the most important purchase or sale in your lifetime. That's why Don’s goal is to keep you informed on trends in Harrisburg PA real estate. With property values continuing to rise, real estate is a sound investment for now and for the future.

As a local area expert with knowledge of Harrisburg PA area communities, Don’s objective is to work diligently to assist you in meeting your real estate goals.

If you are considering buying or selling a home or would just like to have additional information about real estate in your area, please don't hesitate to call me at (717) 657-8700, complete my online form, or e-mail me at don@donroth.com.

The data flow usually slows to a trickle during a holiday-shortened work week. That was case this past week, thanks to the extended Memorial Day weekend.

That said, the flow didn't completely dry up; there were still some notable releases worth mentioning. The pending home sales index was one, and not for particularly encouraging reasons. The index posted a surprising 5.5-percent decline in April after stringing together three months of strong gains. 

There were a couple extenuating factors at work in the index. It's possible that the jump in signed contracts we had seen in the first quarter was a reaction to the FHA's February announcement that it was increasing up-front and annual mortgage insurance premiums. Changes in government lending rules will always influence consumer behavior. In this instance, activity was likely brought forward more than it otherwise would have been without the FHA's lending-premium increases.

Inventory was also mentioned as a contributing factor for fewer homes being taken under contract. Lawrence Yun, chief economist for the NAR, mentioned that a dearth of inventory is limiting the number of transactions. In other words, demand is there, but supply isn't.

Lack-of-inventory is an interesting theme, and one we've been seeing with increasing frequency. It's paradoxical when you you think about it: Over the past year, there has been no shortage of stories detailing the dire consequences of excessive distressed property inventory. Now, we find that this inventory isn't hitting the market quickly enough. It appears demand has surged, but supply has lagged.

Interestingly, it's not just investors seeking distressed properties as potential rentals that's driving demand. Owner-occupied interest is also growing. Realtor.com reports that home-buyer interest in foreclosures has more than doubled over the past two-and-a-half years. Today, more than 64 percent of home buyers say they are interested in foreclosed property.

This unexpected increase in distressed-property demand begs the question: What should we worry about going forward – too many foreclosed properties or too few? Neither, might be the most rational answer.

We apparently don't have to worry about mortgage rates rising in the near future. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note is down to a remarkably low 1.6 percent – its lowest yield ever. Mortgage-backed bonds and mortgage lending rates take their cue from the 10-year Treasury note, so it was no surprise to see mortgage lending rates hit another all-time low (albeit by only a few basis points) this past week.

So why do interest rates continue to hit record lows?

Investors have become more risk averse because of concerns of slowing U.S. economic growth and the potential fallout of a collapse of EU members Greece and Spain; therefore, many investors are moving money out of stocks and into high-quality bonds. Over the past month alone, the Dow Jones Industrial Average has dropped nearly a thousand points; that itself is evidence money is leaving the stock market. Much of that money has moved into bonds.

Record low lending rates will likely stick with us through the summer selling season, but we don't think that's necessarily good. At this point, the prospect of rising rates would likely motivate more people to buy or refinance than the prospect of falling rates.

Courtesy of Jessica Regan.

Search all Harrisburg PA homes for sale.

When you are buying or selling property in today's Harrisburg PA real estate market, it's important to have confidence in your real estate professional. Don’s commitment as your Harrisburg PA REALTOR® is to provide you with the specialized real estate service you deserve.

When you are an informed buyer or seller, you'll make the best decisions for the most important purchase or sale in your lifetime. That's why Don’s goal is to keep you informed on trends in Harrisburg PA real estate. With property values continuing to rise, real estate is a sound investment for now and for the future.

As a local area expert with knowledge of Harrisburg PA area communities, Don’s objective is to work diligently to assist you in meeting your real estate goals.

If you are considering buying or selling a home or would just like to have additional information about real estate in your area, please don't hesitate to call me at (717) 657-8700, complete my online form, or e-mail me at don@donroth.com.

We're at a point in the housing recovery where few people doubt we are actually in the midst of a recovery. Since the beginning of the year, we've been reporting news and data that have generally trended more positively and more optimistically.

Home builders are trending as positively and as optimistically as anyone in the housing sector these days. The NAHB/Wells Fargo sentiment index surged in May to hit a new recovery high of 29. The improved outlook is driven by strengthening consumer sales and buyer traffic, which, in turn, has lead to more housing construction. Housing starts rebounded 2.6 percent in April to 717,000 annualized units, considerably higher than the analysts' consensus forecast for 690,000 units.

While starts are up, foreclosures are down. In fact, foreclosure filings have fallen to their lowest level since July 2007. The five-year low is a product of a death of foreclosure activity in once very active states: Year-over-year foreclosure filings dropped 67 percent in Nevada, 44 percent in Arizona, and 30 percent in California. So much for the surge in distressed properties that was anticipated to swamp the market once the robo-signing imbroglio was put to rest.

Pricing trends also point to a sustained long-term recovery. The national median list price for homes rose by 0.7 percent in April from March to its highest level in nearly a year. 

That said, we're always quick to note that all housing markets are local. When we look at local markets we find that asking prices are up 25 percent in the formerly hard-hit market of Phoenix and 15 percent in the less-hard-hit market of Miami year-over-year.

Look for median asking prices to continue their push higher. Valuation firm Pro Teck reports housing inventory is running at a 6.3-months supply nationally, the lowest level in six years. Falling inventory coupled with rising demand points to one thing – a sustained upward trend in home prices.

The news gets even better when we factor in Fitch Ratings expectations for increased demand for private-label mortgage bond issuance; that is, mortgage bonds not issued by one of the government-sponsored entities (GSEs) – Freddie Mac, Fannie Mae, and Ginnie Mae. The once flourishing private-label market reached $6 trillion in trading activity in 2007. The market is far below that level today, but transactions so far this year have already eclipsed the total for 2011. Fitch sees volume expanding further over the ensuing months. 

Mortgage lending might be the last hurdle to clear in the housing recovery. More security issuance in the private market means less reliance on the GSEs. That means a more vibrant, diversified lending environment and an environment more amenable to meeting more borrower’s needs.

Courtesy of Jessica Regan.

Search all Harrisburg PA homes for sale.

When you are buying or selling property in today's Harrisburg PA real estate market, it's important to have confidence in your real estate professional. Don’s commitment as your Harrisburg PA REALTOR® is to provide you with the specialized real estate service you deserve.

When you are an informed buyer or seller, you'll make the best decisions for the most important purchase or sale in your lifetime. That's why Don’s goal is to keep you informed on trends in Harrisburg PA real estate. With property values continuing to rise, real estate is a sound investment for now and for the future.

As a local area expert with knowledge of Harrisburg PA area communities, Don’s objective is to work diligently to assist you in meeting your real estate goals.

If you are considering buying or selling a home or would just like to have additional information about real estate in your area, please don't hesitate to call me at (717) 657-8700, complete my online form, or e-mail me at don@donroth.com.

The results are in and there is a great improvement in Harrisburg PA real estate sales for the first quarter of 2012 increased by 18.1% compared to the first quarter of 2011 according to the Central Penn Multi List. The area covered by the Multi List is the greater Harrisburg including all of Dauphin, Cumberland and Perry counties and portions of York, Lancaster and Lebanon counties. AND the number of homes sold, not settled, has increased by 20% since the end of 2011.

Not all categories are positive as of today. The days on market category, homes that have sold but not taking into consideration homes that are still on the market or are no longer for sale still is increasing, but at a substantially slower pace than in previous quarters. Also, the average sales price has declined again but the percentage decrease is slowing considerably.

The bottom line is that the Harrisburg PA real estate market is improving faster than many would have expected just a few months ago and I anticipate that all price points will see positive results moving throughout the rest of 2012. We still see plenty of inventory but in the price ranges under $225,000 there is more of a balanced (six months or less) inventory levels and I anticipate that the other price categories to improve although it will be a slower process. With a good supply of inventory and still extremely attractive mortgage interest rates I am anticipating continued improvement in the real estate market locally.

Search all Harrisburg PA homes for sale.

When you are buying or selling property in today's Harrisburg PA real estate market, it's important to have confidence in your real estate professional. Don’s commitment as your Harrisburg PA REALTOR® is to provide you with the specialized real estate service you deserve.

When you are an informed buyer or seller, you'll make the best decisions for the most important purchase or sale in your lifetime. That's why Don’s goal is to keep you informed on trends in Harrisburg PA real estate. With property values continuing to rise, real estate is a sound investment for now and for the future.

As a local area expert with knowledge of Harrisburg PA area communities, Don’s objective is to work diligently to assist you in meeting your real estate goals.

If you are considering buying or selling a home or would just like to have additional information about real estate in your area, please don't hesitate to call me at (717) 657-8700, complete my online form, or e-mail me at don@donroth.com.

Since the bursting of the housing bubble in 2008, homeownership has been declining, and the pace of declined appears to have accelerated in the past year. Gallup, the people who provide an array of polls and surveys, finds that only 62 percent of Americans it surveyed owned a home compared to 68 percent in 2011.

This is actually good news, because it points to pent up demand when you consider that the historical homeownership rate ranges between 65 percent and 66 percent.

We're aware of many media reports that point to a change of culture in the housing market; that is, a change toward a renting culture from a buying one. We don't buy it, at least not for the long term. Ask anyone if he or she would prefer to live in a neighborhood of renters or owners. Most, we assure you, prefer owners.

Many people were spooked by the dramatic price declines that occurred over the past four years, so it's likely that many people when questioned on homeownership were speaking more out of fear than knowledge. Now that it appears that prices have stabilized, we expect more of these people to regain their bearings and consider what they really want – and that's to buy a home and to live in a neighborhood of homeowners.

As we mentioned above, prices matter – and today's low home prices simply won't stay this low indefinitely. After a couple more months of favorable pricing data, that fact will resonate with more prospective buyers.

Courtesy of Jessica Regan.

Search all Harrisburg PA homes for sale.

When you are buying or selling property in today's Harrisburg PA real estate market, it's important to have confidence in your real estate professional. Don’s commitment as your Harrisburg PA REALTOR® is to provide you with the specialized real estate service you deserve.

When you are an informed buyer or seller, you'll make the best decisions for the most important purchase or sale in your lifetime. That's why Don’s goal is to keep you informed on trends in Harrisburg PA real estate. With property values continuing to rise, real estate is a sound investment for now and for the future.

As a local area expert with knowledge of Harrisburg PA area communities, Don’s objective is to work diligently to assist you in meeting your real estate goals.

If you are considering buying or selling a home or would just like to have additional information about real estate in your area, please don't hesitate to call me at (717) 657-8700, complete my online form, or e-mail me at don@donroth.com.

This just in from HUD:

Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to Streamline Short Sales to Help Borrowers and Communities

New Timelines Take Effect in June

Washington, DC – The Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) has directed Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to develop enhanced and aligned strategies for facilitating short sales, deeds-in-lieu and deeds-for-lease in order to help more homeowners avoid foreclosure. The effort will come in stages with the first taking place this June. The new, aligned timelines include the requirement that mortgage servicers review and respond to requests for short sales within 30 calendar days from receipt of a short sale offer.

"FHFA and the Enterprises are committed to enhancing the short sales and deeds-in-lieu process as additional tools to prevent foreclosure, keep homes occupied and help maintain stable communities," said FHFA Acting Director Edward J. DeMarco. "These timeline and borrower communication announcements set minimum standards and provide clear expectations regarding these important foreclosure alternatives."

With the alignment, servicers will be required to do the following:

1. review and respond to requests for short sales within 30 calendar days from receipt of a short sale offer and a complete borrower response package;
2. provide weekly status updates to the borrower if the short sale offer is still under review after 30 calendar days;
3. make and communicate final decisions to the borrower within 60 calendar days of receipt of the offer and complete borrower response package.

By the end of 2012, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac will announce additional enhancements addressing borrower eligibility and evaluation, documentation simplification, property valuation, fraud mitigation, payments to subordinate lien holders, and mortgage insurance. 

This is a good move in the right direction and if other mortgage lenders would follow the uncertainty for many homeowners and their communities will improve.” 

Search all Harrisburg PA homes for sale.

When you are buying or selling property in today's Harrisburg PA real estate market, it's important to have confidence in your real estate professional. Don’s commitment as your Harrisburg PA REALTOR® is to provide you with the specialized real estate service you deserve.

When you are an informed buyer or seller, you'll make the best decisions for the most important purchase or sale in your lifetime. That's why Don’s goal is to keep you informed on trends in Harrisburg PA real estate. With property values continuing to rise, real estate is a sound investment for now and for the future.

As a local area expert with knowledge of Harrisburg PA area communities, Don’s objective is to work diligently to assist you in meeting your real estate goals.

If you are considering buying or selling a home or would just like to have additional information about real estate in your area, please don't hesitate to call me at (717) 657-8700, complete my online form, or e-mail me at don@donroth.com.