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Low Rates for the Immediate Future

by Don Roth


The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note continues to hang near 2%. Not surprisingly, the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage continues to hang below 4%. As we mentioned last week, 2% on the 10-year note gets us sub-4% rate quotes on the 30-year loan.

Given the way the stock market has performed to start 2016, we expect mortgage rates to hold these lows for some time. Many investors are wary of stocks; wary investors take refuge in Treasury securities. The money that flows into these securities raises their price and lowers their yield. Because mortgage bonds take their cue from Treasury securities – the 10-year note in particular – investors are willing to accept lower-rate mortgages.

Stock-market risk perception runs high, which means risk aversion runs high. That's good news for us, because we are able to avail ourselves of low-rate financing. We're seeing mortgage rates we haven't seen in seven months. But keep in mind, it will take only a couple of sustained stock-market rallies for risk perception to change and for money to flow out of bonds and into stocks.

A big bounce in the stock market could easily lead to a big bounce in mortgage rates.

 Information provided by Jessica Regan.

Search all Harrisburg PA homes for sale.

When you are buying or selling property in today's Harrisburg PA real estate market, it's important to have confidence in your real estate professional. Don’s commitment as your Harrisburg PA REALTOR® is to provide you with the specialized real estate service you deserve.

When you are an informed buyer or seller, you'll make the best decisions for the most important purchase or sale in your lifetime. That's why Don’s goal is to keep you informed on trends in Harrisburg PA real estate. With property values continuing to rise, real estate is a sound investment for now and for the future.

As a local area expert with knowledge of Harrisburg PA area communities, Don’s objective is to work diligently to assist you in meeting your real estate goals.

If you are considering buying or selling a home or would just like to have additional information about real estate in your area, please don't hesitate to call me at (717) 657-8700, complete my online form, or e-mail me at don@donroth.com.

Harrisburg PA Mortgage Market Recap – February 2, 2016

by Don Roth


Chalk it up to the January Effect

Our mood may have been a little too dour to start the New Year.  Maybe it's the time of year. January is something of a down month: The December holidays and all the festivities they engender are behind us. The days are short and there is really nothing to look forward to. Negative news, which there has been a surfeit of lately, tends to get amplified.

January is finally winding down, and the latest data releases are winding up – positively. Home sales, which we've been down on lately, have reemerged with a vengeance.

Existing home sales unexpectedly soared, increasing 14.7% to 5.46 million on an annualized rate, in December. The surge was strong enough to turn a negative into a positive. Total sales for 2015 posted at 5.26 million, 6.5% higher than the 4.94 million posted in 2014. But if December sales would have held at November's pace, sales for the year would have finished down.

That said, existing home sales still face near-term headwinds: Low supply continues to plague the market, as it has for the past two years. Total homes for sale fell to 1.79 million in December from November's 2.04 million. Supply relative to sales dropped to only 3.9 months. Supply is as low as it has been in nearly 11 years. It might be tough for sales to hold December levels as we head into spring.

Fourteen and seven must be the magic numbers for December. Existing home sales rose 14.7%, and so did new home sales. Specifically, new home sales increased 14.7% for 2015. There were 501,000 new homes sold last year compared to 437,000 in 2014. As for monthly numbers, we see new home sales were up 10.8% to 544,000 on an annualized rate in December compared to November.

As with existing home sales, supply could limit future new home sales. Supply did rise by 6,000 in December to 237,000, but supply relative to sales fell back to 5.2 months from 5.6 months.

Pricing could also be a limiting factor to sales growth. Prices continue to plow ahead in most major markets. Case-Shiller's 20-city index rose 0.9% in November.  All 20 cities Case-Shiller follows reported monthly gains. Year over year, Case-Shiller's index shows prices up 5.8%.

Of course, all markets are local markets, and a few local markets can skew the national average. Portland home prices are up 11.1% year over year, followed by San Francisco at 11% and Denver at 10.9%. Washington DC, at 2.1%, Chicago, at 2.0%, bring up the rear, but these rates of price appreciation are closer to historical norms. Therefore, they're more sustainable.

One month's worth of sales data doesn't make a trend, but it's a start. The uptick in purchase applications, which increased 5% last week, does lift our spirits and gives us good reason to anticipate the spring selling season.

 Information provided by Jessica Regan.

Search all Harrisburg PA homes for sale.

When you are buying or selling property in today's Harrisburg PA real estate market, it's important to have confidence in your real estate professional. Don’s commitment as your Harrisburg PA REALTOR® is to provide you with the specialized real estate service you deserve.

When you are an informed buyer or seller, you'll make the best decisions for the most important purchase or sale in your lifetime. That's why Don’s goal is to keep you informed on trends in Harrisburg PA real estate. With property values continuing to rise, real estate is a sound investment for now and for the future.

As a local area expert with knowledge of Harrisburg PA area communities, Don’s objective is to work diligently to assist you in meeting your real estate goals.

If you are considering buying or selling a home or would just like to have additional information about real estate in your area, please don't hesitate to call me at (717) 657-8700, complete my online form, or e-mail me at don@donroth.com.

Need to Clean? Get Motivated with a Cleaning Playlist

by Don Roth


When you have a messy house, it’s time to get your head in the game and start cleaning. But how can you motivate yourself to start tackling the clutter and dirt? Pump up the jams! No, seriously. Nothing will get you more in the mood to tackle soap scum and unsightly surface stains than a rockin’ cleaning playlist.

Follow these tips to create your own killer cleaning playlist:

1. Find Music that Makes You Move

The same type of music you listen to for morning runs and late night dance parties is perfect for your cleaning routine, too. The more movin’ and groovin’ you do, the more fun you’ll have! Use music to make picking up your home feel less like a chore and more like a choreographed dance routine. Go ahead, pretend like you’re in your favorite music video.  

2. Curate Carefully

Nothing disrupts the flow of a cleaning dance party like having to stop, put down the sponge and switch to the next song.  To avoid this, only add songs to your playlist you and your partner enjoy. If you can’t agree on a song, leave it off. If you get tired of hearing a particular tune, delete it. That way, your mood won’t turn sour because of a song you dislike, or something you’re sick of listening to.

3. Keep it Updated

To keep yourself energized and – dare we say it – looking forward to cleaning, make sure to update your playlist with a few new songs regularly. Change up the order of your playlist, add new songs you hear on the radio or ask friends to send you some of their favorites. The more you update your playlist, the more you’ll enjoy listening along!

Information provided by BrightNest.com.

Search all Harrisburg PA homes for sale.

When you are buying or selling property in today's Harrisburg PA real estate market, it's important to have confidence in your real estate professional. Don’s commitment as your Harrisburg PA REALTOR® is to provide you with the specialized real estate service you deserve.

When you are an informed buyer or seller, you'll make the best decisions for the most important purchase or sale in your lifetime. That's why Don’s goal is to keep you informed on trends in Harrisburg PA real estate. With property values continuing to rise, real estate is a sound investment for now and for the future.

As a local area expert with knowledge of Harrisburg PA area communities, Don’s objective is to work diligently to assist you in meeting your real estate goals.

If you are considering buying or selling a home or would just like to have additional information about real estate in your area, please don't hesitate to call me at (717) 657-8700, complete my online form, or e-mail me at don@donroth.com.

 

Will Housing Derail Housing?

by Don Roth


Last week, we surmised that if the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note dropped to 2% or lower, we'd see the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage quoted regularly below 4%. The yield on the 10-year note dropped 15-basis points over the past week and is below 2%.

Mortgage-backed securities take their cue from the 10-year note. Therefore, mortgage rates (longer-term rates, specifically) take their cue from the 10-year note. Lenders today are regularly quoting the 30-year loan on top-tier scenarios below 3.9%.

The drop in longer-term mortgage rates has lead to a surge in refinances. The latest survey from the Mortgage Bankers Association shows refinances up 19% week over week. That's the good news. The bad news is that the same survey shows purchase applications down 2% week over week.  The downtrend in purchase applications is another reason we're not expecting an immediate upturn in home sales. 

The stock market is key. It's also a threat. We could easily see a spillover into housing: Both sales and lending activity could start trending lower if stock prices don't start trending higher.

 Information provided by Jessica Regan.

Search all Harrisburg PA homes for sale.

When you are buying or selling property in today's Harrisburg PA real estate market, it's important to have confidence in your real estate professional. Don’s commitment as your Harrisburg PA REALTOR® is to provide you with the specialized real estate service you deserve.

When you are an informed buyer or seller, you'll make the best decisions for the most important purchase or sale in your lifetime. That's why Don’s goal is to keep you informed on trends in Harrisburg PA real estate. With property values continuing to rise, real estate is a sound investment for now and for the future.

As a local area expert with knowledge of Harrisburg PA area communities, Don’s objective is to work diligently to assist you in meeting your real estate goals.

If you are considering buying or selling a home or would just like to have additional information about real estate in your area, please don't hesitate to call me at (717) 657-8700, complete my online form, or e-mail me at don@donroth.com.

Harrisburg PA Mortgage Market Recap – January 26, 2016

by Don Roth

Still Stumbling Out of the Gate

2016 has hardly gotten off to an auspicious start, particularly if you own stocks.  Through the first two weeks of January, the S&P 500 has lost over 10% of its value. This is the worst start to a new year ever. 

If misery loves company, then the S&P has plenty of it. China's major stock barometer, the Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite, is down 16% year to date. Japan, Germany, and France have also experienced double-digit stock-market declines. In the United Kingdom, stocks are down almost 10%, but not quite. 

Around the world, investments are losing value, and they're not alone. Many asset groups are also losing value. (We distinguish investments from assets, in that investments generate cash flow.) Commodity assets – food stuff and industrial metals – continue to hit new multi-year lows. Then there is oil and natural gas, which also continue to trend lower. Oil prices are at a 13-year low. Though natural gas prices have rallied in recent weeks, they continue to hover near a 15-year low.

Not surprisingly, consumer price inflation (CPI) barely registers a blip these days. CPI for December showed a 1.0% monthly decline, which drops the annual inflation rate to a mere 0.7%. Energy lead the charge lower, posting a 2.4% monthly decline.

Housing continues to be the one positive sector in the economy. Unfortunately, even housing is showing signs of faltering.

Home builders remain optimistic, but just not as optimistic as they were in the second half of 2015.  The home builder sentiment index dropped to 60 in January. This is the third-consecutive monthly decrease.

Lower optimistic could simply be a reflection of fewer starts. Total housing starts for December were down 2.5% to 1.149 million on an annualized basis. Single-family starts bore the brunt of the decline, falling to 768,000 from 794,000 month over month.  Permits were the silver lining (somewhat). Permits came in at 1.232 million on an annualized basis. This beat expectations for 1.2 million permits, but they were still lower than the 1.282 million posted in November.

We've devoted a good deal of space to markets outside of housing and mortgage lending, and for a good reason. No market is an island. (The same can be said for any country.)

Our concern is that what's occurring in investment and asset markets could affect the housing market. Investments and assets produce a wealth effect: When investment and asset prices are appreciating, people feel wealthier and more confident. They're more likely to take on a big-ticket item – like a house.  The flip side is that when investment and asset prices are depreciating, people become more cautious. They're less likely to take on big-ticket items.

We're still bullish on housing, but we're also realistic. We wouldn't be surprised to see a further slowdown in national sales volume. We also wouldn't be surprised to see a slower pace of price appreciation (and even price depreciation) in more local housing markets. 

 Information provided by Jessica Regan.

Search all Harrisburg PA homes for sale.

When you are buying or selling property in today's Harrisburg PA real estate market, it's important to have confidence in your real estate professional. Don’s commitment as your Harrisburg PA REALTOR® is to provide you with the specialized real estate service you deserve.

When you are an informed buyer or seller, you'll make the best decisions for the most important purchase or sale in your lifetime. That's why Don’s goal is to keep you informed on trends in Harrisburg PA real estate. With property values continuing to rise, real estate is a sound investment for now and for the future.

As a local area expert with knowledge of Harrisburg PA area communities, Don’s objective is to work diligently to assist you in meeting your real estate goals.

If you are considering buying or selling a home or would just like to have additional information about real estate in your area, please don't hesitate to call me at (717) 657-8700, complete my online form, or e-mail me at don@donroth.com.

Will Housing Derail Housing?

by Don Roth

Five years ago, we repeatedly implored readers to keep the faith: Home prices would cease declining and would recover. We reasoned that 2010 (and 2011) was terrific time to enter the housing market - bargains abounded. You just had to keep your eye on the distant horizon.

The distant horizon is here. Times have certainly changed. Rising prices, not declining prices, is the overarching concern.  Many markets – Denver, Seattle, Washington D.C., Austin, Orange County, for instance – have seen home prices blow past previous highs.

Lack of new construction is a contributing factor to today's higher prices. Builders rightly throttled back after the 2008-2009 recession.  There was a glut of housing at the time; you don't add gasoline to a raging fire.

Today, there is a dearth of housing, which has held back both existing and new home sales.  Unfortunately, builders have yet to fully throttle up. Starts – around one million per year – are still far below the 1.6 million long-term annual average.  Policies more friendly to housing wouldn't be a bad thing at this point. After all, more supply would mean more affordable housing. More affordable housing, in turn, would mean more first-time buyers.

We understand many people don't like change (such as new housing in their neighborhood). But if failure to change means running off young first-time buyers, then failure to change means running off your future. 

 Information provided by Jessica Regan.

Search all Harrisburg PA homes for sale.

When you are buying or selling property in today's Harrisburg PA real estate market, it's important to have confidence in your real estate professional. Don’s commitment as your Harrisburg PA REALTOR® is to provide you with the specialized real estate service you deserve.

When you are an informed buyer or seller, you'll make the best decisions for the most important purchase or sale in your lifetime. That's why Don’s goal is to keep you informed on trends in Harrisburg PA real estate. With property values continuing to rise, real estate is a sound investment for now and for the future.

As a local area expert with knowledge of Harrisburg PA area communities, Don’s objective is to work diligently to assist you in meeting your real estate goals.

If you are considering buying or selling a home or would just like to have additional information about real estate in your area, please don't hesitate to call me at (717) 657-8700, complete my online form, or e-mail me at don@donroth.com.

Harrisburg PA Mortgage Market Recap – January 19, 2016

by Don Roth

Blow Out Employment Numbers Fail to Blow Up Lending Rates

We've been emphasizing monthly employment numbers for at least the past two years, and for good reason: The employment situation is a key variable in the Federal Reserve's interest-rate calculus. Strong job growth enables the Fed to raise interest rates, which it did last month by raising its range on the federal funds rate.

Job growth remains strong to this day. Payrolls soared 292,000 in December. The number smoked most economists' estimates by a wide margin. What's more, October and November payrolls were adjusted up a total of 50,000. October payrolls were adjusted up to 307,000. eral funds rate.

With payrolls trending ever higher, interest rates should be expected to trend higher as well. Rising payrolls reflect robust business activity and a strong economy.

But the world is never so neat and tidy. Since last Friday, when December's employment numbers were released, interest rates have actually drifted lower. The 10-year U.S. Treasury note yields roughly 10 fewer basis points today than it did last week. Long-term mortgage rates, namely the rates on the 15- and 30-year fixed-rate offerings, are being quoted near a two-month low.

Macro events have taken center stage: China's stock market has tanked to start 2016. Our own stock market isn't fairing much better. The S&P 500 is down 6% year to date.

Deflation, more than anything, has financial markets on edge. Oil recently hit an 11-year low, with West Texas crude trading near $30/barrel. Commodities in general – oil, natural gas, metals, grains – are all selling near multi-year lows. On the other hand, the U.S. dollar remains at multi-year highs against many of the world's currencies (which reflects strong world demand for U.S. assets and investments, including U.S. real estate).

When these events are aggregated, it appears unlikely the Fed will implement another rate hike in the near future. Traders in fed funds rate future contracts are pricing only an 8% chance of another rate increase when Fed officials meet later this month. They're pricing a 43% chance when Fed officials meet in mid-March.

We're skeptical that we'll see another rate increase until the second quarter of 2016. But even if we do see the Fed ratchet the fed funds rate higher that doesn't mean all mortgage rates will ratchet higher.  We've seen some up-drift in short-term mortgage rates since December. Long-term mortgage rates have remained muted.

Inflation is key. If there is no inflation, expect long-term mortgage rates to remain low.  There is such a dearth of inflation these days that we've heard forecasts of the yield on the 10-year Treasury note falling below 2%. If that occurs, you can be sure that quotes below 4% on the 30-year fixed-rate loan will again be the norm.   

 Information provided by Jessica Regan.

Search all Harrisburg PA homes for sale.

When you are buying or selling property in today's Harrisburg PA real estate market, it's important to have confidence in your real estate professional. Don’s commitment as your Harrisburg PA REALTOR® is to provide you with the specialized real estate service you deserve.

When you are an informed buyer or seller, you'll make the best decisions for the most important purchase or sale in your lifetime. That's why Don’s goal is to keep you informed on trends in Harrisburg PA real estate. With property values continuing to rise, real estate is a sound investment for now and for the future.

As a local area expert with knowledge of Harrisburg PA area communities, Don’s objective is to work diligently to assist you in meeting your real estate goals.

If you are considering buying or selling a home or would just like to have additional information about real estate in your area, please don't hesitate to call me at (717) 657-8700, complete my online form, or e-mail me at don@donroth.com.

7 Eco-Friendly Laundry Room Tips

by Don Roth

Your shirts may leave the dryer smelling like a mountain meadow, but the process isn’t quite as natural as your nose makes it seem. Laundry duty is water- and energy-intensive, so it can actually put a pretty big strain on ‘ole Mother Earth. In fact, the energy used to heat water for laundry in the U.S. results in 34 million tons of carbon dioxide emissions each year. That’s equivalent to the total annual carbon emissions of New Zealand.

Want to give your laundry an upgrade that would make Captain Planet proud? Here are seven easy, big-impact changes you can make right this instant:

1. Use Green Detergent 

Many store bought laundry detergents rely on chemicals (like phosphates) that can be harmful to your skin, your clothes and nearby water systems. That’s three strikes, so get those hazardous detergents out of your laundry room! When you’re shopping, look for detergents that are made with biodegradable ingredients and don’t contain phosphates. We like Seventh Generation’s Natural Laundry Detergent because it’s also “concentrated.” That means that it comes in a smaller package (better for the environment) and produces less suds (better for your washing machine).

2. Embrace the Power of Cold Water

The Department of Energy estimates that up to 90 percent of the energy used during laundry goes to heating the water! Conserve energy (and save some money) by washing your clothes in cold water.

3. Skip the Dryer

Ok, we’re not going to lie – putting on warm jammies that are fresh out the dryer is pretty sweet. But that heat comes with a hefty amount of carbon emissions. There are more than 88 million dryers in the U.S., and each one emits more than a ton of carbon dioxide each year. So, hang your laundry out to dry when you can! Tip: If the weather outside is frightful, consider adding a hidden clothesline to your laundry room.

4. Watch the Time

If you’re dead-set on using a dryer – and you’re going to be running multiple cycles – keep an eye on the time and try to run them back-to-back. If your dryer is already warmed up, it won’t need to use as much energy to dry that second (or third) load of laundry.  

5. Recycle Carefully

A lot of laundry paraphernalia (such as detergent bottles) come with specific disposal needs. For example, some bottles can be recycled, but the caps need to be thrown out separately. Always check the labels of different packages to make sure that you’re getting rid of them properly.

6. Run Full Loads

Your washing machine uses the same amount of water and energy whether you put in a full hamper or just three shirts and some socks. So make that energy count by running full loads!Note: Don’t go overboard and pack your machine to the brim – that can actually promote bacteria growth.

7. Purchase an Energy Star Washing Machine

An Energy Star appliance will almost always be more efficient than other options, but this is especially true of washing machines. In fact, you can reduce your water and energy usage by as much as 50 percent by upgrading your machine! So if your suds bucket is over-the-hill (anything more than 10 years old), go shopping for an Energy Star upgrade.  

Information provided by BrightNest.com.

Search all Harrisburg PA homes for sale.

When you are buying or selling property in today's Harrisburg PA real estate market, it's important to have confidence in your real estate professional. Don’s commitment as your Harrisburg PA REALTOR® is to provide you with the specialized real estate service you deserve.

When you are an informed buyer or seller, you'll make the best decisions for the most important purchase or sale in your lifetime. That's why Don’s goal is to keep you informed on trends in Harrisburg PA real estate. With property values continuing to rise, real estate is a sound investment for now and for the future.

As a local area expert with knowledge of Harrisburg PA area communities, Don’s objective is to work diligently to assist you in meeting your real estate goals.

If you are considering buying or selling a home or would just like to have additional information about real estate in your area, please don't hesitate to call me at (717) 657-8700, complete my online form, or e-mail me at don@donroth.com.

 

7 Easy Ways to Fix Slow Internet That’s Driving You Crazy

by Don Roth


Nothing is worse than settling in for a sweatpants Netflix binge on to find the buffer-wheel-of-boredom on your TV instead of your favorite show.

If your home internet is moving at a snail’s pace on a regular basis, there are a few tricks you can try at home to fix the problem. Work through the list sequentially until your beautiful, fast Internet is restored.

Reset Your Modem and Router

Often, your Internet woes can be fixed with a little on-off action. Turn off your modem and router completely by disconnecting the power cords from both, and wait about 10 seconds. Then, switch them back on. This quick electronic voodoo action may do the trick.

Move Your Router

We get that routers are ugly. But if your router is stuffed under a couch or in a cabinet, you’re inhibiting the signal and slowing down your WiFi. Your router should be out in the open, so place it on the kitchen counter or uncovered against a wall. Ideally, you want the router elevated (the attic may be a good spot) and as centrally located as possible.

Password Protect Your WiFi

Do you live in a highly populated area (like a big apartment building)? You may have a thief in your midst. If your Internet isn’t password protected, it’s easy for WiFi pirates to pilfer. They won’t leave a trace, and you’ll be in buffer city. To avoid this issue, always password protect your WiFi. Make it fun! A few of our favorites? “PorqueFi” and “PrettyFlyforaWiFi”.

Put Bandwidth Hogs in Check

If a household member is a big-time gamer, their habit may be slowing down bandwidth for the rest of you. Some applications, like video games or streaming services like Netflix, take up a lot more bandwidth than other applications, like cruising Facebook. If this is the case, first set some ground rules. If that doesn’t work, there is a tool called Quality of Service (QoS) on your router that you can use to prioritize services. Because all routers operate differently, visit your router’s Owner’s Manual to learn how to set up QoS for your family.

Change Your Channel

Just like radios, wireless routers operate on different channels. And if your router is on the same channel as your neighbors, you’re going to have a weaker signal. To find the best channel for your WiFi, use this guide by How To Geek.

Update Your Hardware

If you’re working with a router circa 2001, your hardware may be the problem. To ensure you’re getting the fastest connection, you should be working with up-to-date technology. Not sure if your equipment is over the hill? Check out LifeHacker’s Router Hardware 101.

Purchase a Range Extender

If your hardware is up-to-date, you can extend the range of your WiFi, and in turn its strength, by purchasing a range extender like this option by NETGEAR. They typically run less than $50 and may be the boost you need to take your speed to the next level.

Information provided by BrightNest.com.

Search all Harrisburg PA homes for sale.

When you are buying or selling property in today's Harrisburg PA real estate market, it's important to have confidence in your real estate professional. Don’s commitment as your Harrisburg PA REALTOR® is to provide you with the specialized real estate service you deserve.

When you are an informed buyer or seller, you'll make the best decisions for the most important purchase or sale in your lifetime. That's why Don’s goal is to keep you informed on trends in Harrisburg PA real estate. With property values continuing to rise, real estate is a sound investment for now and for the future.

As a local area expert with knowledge of Harrisburg PA area communities, Don’s objective is to work diligently to assist you in meeting your real estate goals.

If you are considering buying or selling a home or would just like to have additional information about real estate in your area, please don't hesitate to call me at (717) 657-8700, complete my online form, or e-mail me at don@donroth.com.

 

Harrisburg PA Mortgage Market Recap – January 12, 2016

by Don Roth


An Inauspicious Start to 2016

Most of us enter a new year with a sense of optimism. The slate has been mentally cleared and we're ready to start anew.

As is often the case, though, reality can have a way of tempering optimism. Here we are less than a week into 2016 and the economic news has been mostly a buzz-kill.

The stock market, for one, leaves much to be desired. Stocks have traded down over the few trading days in 2016. Investors are worried that China's economy will slow, thus reducing demand for goods and services from around the world, including our slice of it. If China's economy slows, the reasoning goes, so will the U.S. economy.

Unfortunately, we already have enough to worry about on the growth front. The Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta estimates that fourth-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) grew at just 0.7% on an annualized rate, down from a prior estimate of 1.3%. JP MorganChase recently cut its fourth-quarter GDP estimate in half to 1% from 2%. Looking to 2016, economists at Duetsche Bank scaled back their first-quarter GDP forecast by half a point, to 1.5%.

Because no market is an island, an all-around slowdown in GDP growth wouldn't be good for housing. Sales were already sluggish through the final quarter of 2015. We don't expect to see an uplift to start 2016. Lending activity points to more of the same. In the two weeks ended January 1, purchase application activity was down 15% compared to the prior two weeks, according to Mortgage Bankers Association data.

We do have some good news to report.

Residential construction spending rose 0.3% for a second-consecutive month in November. Spending on new single-family homes rose strongly in 2015, with the year-over-year growth rate expanding to 9.3%. Spending on multi-family homes is up 24.5% year over year. Housing construction and new-home sales are meaningful contributors to GDP growth.

Mortgage rates should remain a back-burner issue, at least for the immediate future. Mortgage rates across the rate spectrum have been staid since the Federal Reserve raised the federal funds rate last month. Longer-term rates did drift slightly higher to end 2015, but we don't expect them to drift much higher, if they drift at all. In fact, given recent price action in the 10-year U.S. Treasury note, we could see the 30-year and 15-year fixed-rate loans drift lower. The yield on the 10-year note is again below 2.2%.

As we explained last week, long-term lending rates are showing little inclination to move higher. This is mainly due to a lack of worldwide inflation. Oil prices hit an 11-year low this week. Most other commodity prices are also at multi-year lows. If we get a whiff of any meaningful inflation, we doubt that it will occur in the first-quarter of 2016. Therefore, we doubt that we will get any meaningful mortgage-rate increases in the first quarter.   

Information provided by Jessica Regan.

Search all Harrisburg PA homes for sale.

When you are buying or selling property in today's Harrisburg PA real estate market, it's important to have confidence in your real estate professional. Don’s commitment as your Harrisburg PA REALTOR® is to provide you with the specialized real estate service you deserve.

When you are an informed buyer or seller, you'll make the best decisions for the most important purchase or sale in your lifetime. That's why Don’s goal is to keep you informed on trends in Harrisburg PA real estate. With property values continuing to rise, real estate is a sound investment for now and for the future.

As a local area expert with knowledge of Harrisburg PA area communities, Don’s objective is to work diligently to assist you in meeting your real estate goals.

If you are considering buying or selling a home or would just like to have additional information about real estate in your area, please don't hesitate to call me at (717) 657-8700, complete my online form, or e-mail me at don@donroth.com.

Displaying blog entries 81-90 of 487

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