Real Estate Information Archive

Sometimes we can't help think of the closing line of The Rime of the Ancient Mariner: “Water, water, every where, nor any drop to drink.” The line relates to the frustration of floating thirsty on an ocean of undrinkable water.

We say that because we feel a similar frustration at times: There is plenty of money everywhere, but not enough is being lent to worthy borrowers. The Federal Reserve reports that if underwriting standards were closer to 2003 levels and home equity wasn't an issue, an additional 2.3 million homeowners would have been able to refinance last year, a 50-percent increase above the 4.5 million borrowers who were able to refinance.

Fortunately, more people of influence are becoming sympathetic to our frustration. Eric Rosengren, CEO of the Boston Federal Reserve, recently said that he supports policies that would allow homeowners who are underwater on their mortgages to refinance. That's a good start, but there are also plenty of people living within their means with dinged FICO scores because of the recession who want and are deserving of a home and a loan.

If there is one cause we can all get behind as we head toward 2012, it is to support policies that allow us to lend to worthy credit risks and to people who would help generate the demand housing is sorely missing.

Courtesy of Jessica Regan.

When you are buying or selling property in today's Harrisburg PA real estate market, it's important to have confidence in your real estate professional. Don’s commitment as your Harrisburg PA REALTOR® is to provide you with the specialized real estate service you deserve.

When you are an informed buyer or seller, you'll make the best decisions for the most important purchase or sale in your lifetime. That's why Don’s goal is to keep you informed on trends in Harrisburg PA real estate. With property values continuing to rise, real estate is a sound investment for now and for the future.

As a local area expert with knowledge of Harrisburg PA area communities, Don’s objective is to work diligently to assist you in meeting your real estate goals.

If you are considering buying or selling a home or would just like to have additional information about real estate in your area, please don't hesitate to call me at (717) 657-8700, complete my online form, or e-mail me at don@donroth.com.

New home sales continue to skim bottom, but at least they are not burrowing lower. New home sales posted at an annual rate of 295,000 units in August, which actually beat the consensus estimate for 288,000 units.

Pricing is the new and more troubling issue. Year-over-year, new home prices have been holding firm or improving in many markets. It appears that trend has reversed, at least at the national level. In August, the national median price fell 7.7 percent to $209,100, while the national average price dropped 8.5 percent to $246,000.

The supply of new homes remains low at a mere 162,000 units. However, supply relative to sales has risen to 6.6 months at the current sales pace compared to 6.5 months in July. To say the sledding has been tough for homebuilders over the past two years is to understate the obvious. Unfortunately, it appears the sledding won't get any less tough any time soon.

The sledding could also be getting a little tougher for existing home sales. The NAR reports that fewer buyers signed contracts to purchase existing homes in August, as the pending home sales index fell 1.2 percent to 88.6. We were encouraged by the spike in existing home sales in August, but we don't believe that spike will materialize into a sustained higher sales trend – at least for the near future.

This isn't to say we are down on housing. At least one supply concern appears to be improving – shadow inventory. CoreLogic reports that residential shadow inventory declined to 1.6 million units in July, which represents five months of supply at the current sales pace. The encouraging news here is that over 300,000 units have been removed from the market over the past year.

As for mortgage rates, the decline has also stopped, at least for now. In the past week, rates increased a few basis points across most offerings. Many economists pointed to Europe for a general rise in interest rates. It appears that Greece is moving farther away from defaulting on its debt.US Treasury securities have been a haven for many investors who fear the prospect of a Greek (and possible European Union) collapse. Over the past few weeks, volatility has been high in many of the maturities, including the influential 10-year Treasury note that has been bouncing around in a 30-basis point range. If the news in Europe continues to improve and if our own moribund economy starts showing new vigor, we can easily see that 30-point band shifting higher. Therefore, we advise locking to anyone unwilling to take risks for a few extra basis points.

Info courtesy of Jessica Regan.

When you are buying or selling property in today's Harrisburg PA real estate market, it's important to have confidence in your real estate professional. Don’s commitment as your Harrisburg PA REALTOR® is to provide you with the specialized real estate service you deserve.

When you are an informed buyer or seller, you'll make the best decisions for the most important purchase or sale in your lifetime. That's why Don’s goal is to keep you informed on trends in Harrisburg PA real estate. With property values continuing to rise, real estate is a sound investment for now and for the future.

As a local area expert with knowledge of Harrisburg PA area communities, Don’s objective is to work diligently to assist you in meeting your real estate goals.

If you are considering buying or selling a home or would just like to have additional information about real estate in your area, please don't hesitate to call me at (717) 657-8700, complete my online form, or e-mail me at don@donroth.com.

Harrisburg PA Real Estate Market Update brought to you by Jessica Regan, GMH Mortgage:

"It's d éjà vu all over again,” or so goes one of Yogi Berra's more famous malapropisms. There is a whiff of appropriateness to it, because home prices and foreclosures are reoccurring themes.

This week, the news on home prices was mixed, but encouraging. Zillow reported that home values were up 0.4 percent for the second quarter of 2011 compared to the first, but down 6.2 percent year-over-year, with the average home valued at $171,600.

The National Association of Realtors also reported a year-over-year decline. According to the NAR, the median sales price of existing homes fell 2.8 percent to $171,900 in the second quarter compared to the same year-ago quarter. The good news is that the NAR's data show prices trending modestly higher in recent months.

The question is, will the price trend continue? Foreclosures are the elephants in the room. RealtyTrac reported that foreclosures fell 35 percent, hitting a 44-month low, in July compared to the same year-ago period. In most markets that would be good news, but not necessarily in this one; the drop is attributed to banks still working through last year's servicing fiasco. Many market watchers are expecting a surge in foreclosures that could plague housing through 2012.

If there is a foreclosure surge, it will likely be regional. RealtyTrac also reported that 73 percent of foreclosure activity has been concentrated in a few states: California, Florida, Georgia, Michigan, Illinois, Nevada, Arizona, Ohio, and Wisconsin. The aggregated numbers might appear dire, but that doesn't mean that any one market is necessarily weakening.

Speaking of one market (actually, a number of smaller markets), overbuilt Florida is showing observable improvement. Existing home sales in the Sunshine State are up year-over-year. The median sales price has improved 17.3 percent, to $94,000, from the first quarter to the second. Florida has suffered home-price depreciation as much as any state, but lower prices spur demand, which helps stabilize prices. It's simple economics, and it's working.

The economics of mortgage rates are anything but simple. A few of our colleagues have been lamenting Standard & Poor's downgrade of U.S. Treasury debt, believing higher rates are on the horizon. We're not so sure. Mortgage rates are tightly tethered to 10-year Treasury-note yields. The current yield on these notes has dropped below 2.2 percent, lower than the yields in early 2009, and for the past 50 years. Investors obviously aren't concerned.

Much hoopla was made of the news that the Federal Reserve plans to hold short-term rates close to zero until 2013. But the Fed doesn't control the longer end of the market, which is influenced by the general level of economic uncertainty, credit worthiness of borrowers, time preference, and risk aversion. Sentiment and perceptions of these variables can change, and they can change on a dime, as the recent collapse of stock prices shows.

In short, we don't think mortgage rates are rising soon, but we'd be hesitant to play the rate game just to save a few extra basis points.

We've reworded Yogi Berra's quote into a question because of the volatility and hard sell-off in stocks. Could we possibly be setting ourselves up for a repeat of a decade ago? If you'll remember, many investors sold stocks in late 2000 and early 2001. A lot of that money was then funneled into real estate.

Admittedly, many people were subsequently burned by poor decisions – namely paying and borrowing too much. But as the sting of these losses subsides and stock losses accumulate, it's not outside the realm of possibility for money to cycle back into value-priced real estate. One of the overlooked benefits of real estate is that prices aren't continuously updated, so investors aren't whipsawed emotionally with real estate like they are with stocks.

This isn't to say that we expect a cascade of dollars to flow into real estate, but it's worth noting that investments compete with each. Given recent action in the stock market, the real estate market is looking quite a bit better in comparison.

In the wake of news stories that the US will face a government shutdown and default on its outstanding loans if a debt ceiling agreement isn't reached, many people may be wondering what the impact would be to the mortgage industry and closings.The last time we went through a government shutdown in 1995, it was a pain, but not a panic. If a shutdown were to occur again, mortgage expert Linda Davidson points out the following top six areas that could be impacted:

1. FHA Case Numbers: For each FHA loan, we are required to order a FHA case number. This number is generated before an appraisal can even be ordered. With a shutdown, we may not be able to order case numbers. Because of this, it is critical to let us know if there is a contract executed on any loan, so that our office can go ahead and order a case number without risking the loan being on hold during a shutdown. Note: with the new FHA guidelines, a contract must be executed before a case number can be ordered.The ability to close FHA loans is questionable, depending if HUD keeps its website running to obtain FHA case numbers and CAIVRS. During the November 1995 shutdown, case numbers could not be obtained, but this was prior to the internet and was a manual process. The shutdown in 1995 mainly caused a delay rather than a drop in FHA loan origination. But if lenders decide to stop accepting FHA applications, it could be a problem. I think we may see delays but not a complete shutdown of the FHA.

2. 4506 IRS Transcripts: Each loan requires the verification of at least one tax return by the IRS to verify the numbers that each customer presents on their tax returns. During a shutdown, this process would be delayed as the IRS wouldn't be at work to verify the transcripts.

3. Verifying Employment of a Government Employee: We are required to verify the employment of each customer. If the customer is a federal government employee, we would be unable to verify his or her employment during a shutdown.

4. FEMA: Homes in a Flood Zone: Homes that are determined to be in a flood zone would not be able to close as flood insurance could not be obtained.

5. USDA: During a shutdown, the USDA office would be closed because they have government underwriters that insure behind the lender. With a shutdown, we would see delays with all USDA loans.

6. VA: Like the FHA, the disruption is possible - but not absolute - during a shutdown. This would all depend on if they continued to allow their website to function. A disruption would cause delays in VA appraisals and the issuing of certificates of eligibility. If the website was closed during a shutdown, we would see delays in all VA loans.

Stay tuned for updates if necessary on this very important time period. And if you have any questions, please call or email today.

Mortgage Matters

With the beginning of the New Year, many potential home buyers should make a resolution to purchase a home and have the ability to take advantage of the Home Buyer Tax Credit. Extended by Congress in 2009, this credit is available to buyers who sign a purchase contract before April 30, 2010 and settle on the home prior to June 30, 2010.

There are two eligibility categories designated by the Tax Credit Law:

1. First Time Home Buyers. Defined as a buyer that has not owned a home for the past three years and the credit is up to $8000 or 10% of the purchase price of the home. The income restrictions are $125,000 for a single buyer and $225,000 for a couple purchasing the home. One of the more attractive conditions of the law is that the credit is truly a credit with no repayment provisions as long as you own the home for three years. If you sell prior to the anniversary, the total credit amount must be repaid.
2. Current Home Owners who may want to purchase a home. The credit is $6500, and the home being purchased must be the buyers’ permanent residence. If a buyer wants to continue to own the home they are currently residing in, that is allowed, but again the home being purchased must be the new residence and be occupied by the buyer. One other condition in this category is that the buyer must have lived in their previous residence for five consecutive years of the last eight years. The other conditions that pertain to the First Time Home Buyers are similar.

Why is this credit so important? One of the reasons Congress extended the credit is to stimulate the housing market in the beginning of 2010. Also, with prices of homes in many areas of the country at or below previous levels it is anticipated that buyers can purchase a home at an attractive price and possibly give current homeowners the opportunity to do the same. And with mortgage interest rates still at an attractive level, possibly provide more purchasing power to a buyer.

This bill passed by Congress is the third version of the Home Buyer Tax Credit and from everything that I have seen or read Congress is not likely at this time to provide any further extensions in the future. Naturally, with any specific tax questions, it is highly recommended that you talk to a tax professional. And if you have any questions concerning available real estate for sale in the Greater Harrisburg area, please contact me at Don@DonRoth.com.