Real Estate Information Archive

Housing has been subdued the past couple weeks and will likely remain subdued through the remainder of the year. The good news is what's been reported on housing has been mostly positive.

The trend continues this week. The Mortgage Bankers Association reports that purchase applications continue to trend higher, rising 1.0% in the December 7 week. This marks the fifth-consecutive volume increase and is a positive indicator for home sales as we head into the new year.

News on the mortgage market has picked up where housing has left off. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke announced on Wednesday that the Fed will not only continue purchasing $40 billion in mortgage-backed securities (MBSs) each month, it will also purchase an additional $45 billion in long-term U.S. Treasury securities. Both securities will be pay for with newly minted money.

The Fed's goal is to lower already low mortgage lending rates. The theory is that even lower lending rates will accelerate the housing recovery, thus accelerating the economic recovery. An accelerating economic recovery, in turn, will spur additional job growth. For this reason, the Fed said it will continue to keep interest rates low until the unemployment rate drops to 6.5%. (The unemployment rate is currently 7.7%.)

The Fed's strategy, which creates higher demand for MBSs and U.S. Treasury securities, helps hold mortgage lending rates low. The relationship is inverse: when demand rises for these securities, their price rises and their yield falls.

The graph below illustrates the relationship between a $1,000 10-year note with an initial coupon payment of 6%, which means the note pays $60 in interest annually. When the market rate falls after the note is issued, the note's price rises. A higher price produces a yield that calibrates the lower market rate of interest with the coupon rate.

Mortgage lending rates are tethered to yields on MBSs, which are tethered to U.S. Treasury security yields. In short, by purchasing both Treasury securities and MBSs, the Fed helps keep mortgage lending rates low.

That said, a strange thing happened after the Fed announced it wanted to lower mortgage lending rates even further: The yield on the 10-year Treasury note actually increased (and has been increasing since last week). The 10-year note is a benchmark for the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage.

So what's going on?

The Fed isn't the only player in the mortgage market; the Fed isn't omnipotent. Outside market forces are also an important variable. The risk of price inflation rises with the Fed pumping more money into the financial system. In fact, the Fed itself raised its annual price-inflation target to 2.5% from 2.0%. If price inflation rises, mortgage lending rates will be pressured to follow.

The point we want to emphasis is not to take for granted that mortgage lending rates will fall meaningfully lower. The Fed is implementing a strategy, not offering a guarantee.

Courtesy of Jessica Regan.

Search all Harrisburg PA homes for sale.

When you are buying or selling property in today's Harrisburg PA real estate market, it's important to have confidence in your real estate professional. Don’s commitment as your Harrisburg PA REALTOR® is to provide you with the specialized real estate service you deserve.

When you are an informed buyer or seller, you'll make the best decisions for the most important purchase or sale in your lifetime. That's why Don’s goal is to keep you informed on trends in Harrisburg PA real estate. With property values continuing to rise, real estate is a sound investment for now and for the future.

As a local area expert with knowledge of Harrisburg PA area communities, Don’s objective is to work diligently to assist you in meeting your real estate goals.

If you are considering buying or selling a home or would just like to have additional information about real estate in your area, please don't hesitate to call me at (717) 657-8700, complete my online form, or e-mail me at don@donroth.com.

More than a few housing-market observers are concerned the fiscal cliff – the impending array of tax increases and spending cuts due January 1 – could derail the housing recovery. These concerns aren't unfounded.

If nothing is done between now and the end of the year, income tax rates will rise, and not just for the rich. The lowest marginal income tax rate, at 10%, will increase 50%, to 15%. Everyone in every tax bracket will have fewer dollars to spend and invest. Tightened personal budgets could force many marginal home buyers out of the market.

The greater concern, at least from an immediate perspective, is the expiration of the Mortgage Debt Relief Act of 2007. The act allows borrowers to exclude certain canceled debt on their principal residence as income. If the act isn't extended, many short sellers could be hit with a big tax bill for forgiven debt. This would be a serious impediment to the short-sale market, which has contributed mightily to the housing recovery.

The good news is that it appears likely the Mortgage Debt Relief Act will be extended. The bad news is that we continue to barrel toward the fiscal cliff, with no resolution in sight. The remaining weeks heading into January will be interesting, to say the least, and could be very impacting on the housing and mortgage markets.

Courtesy of Jessica Regan.

Search all Harrisburg PA homes for sale.

When you are buying or selling property in today's Harrisburg PA real estate market, it's important to have confidence in your real estate professional. Don’s commitment as your Harrisburg PA REALTOR® is to provide you with the specialized real estate service you deserve.

When you are an informed buyer or seller, you'll make the best decisions for the most important purchase or sale in your lifetime. That's why Don’s goal is to keep you informed on trends in Harrisburg PA real estate. With property values continuing to rise, real estate is a sound investment for now and for the future.

As a local area expert with knowledge of Harrisburg PA area communities, Don’s objective is to work diligently to assist you in meeting your real estate goals.

If you are considering buying or selling a home or would just like to have additional information about real estate in your area, please don't hesitate to call me at (717) 657-8700, complete my online form, or e-mail me at don@donroth.com.

New-home sales inspired some recent consternation after it was reported that both volume and prices declined in October. A few commentators opined that one month could turn into two, and possibly more.

Color us skeptical; new-home sales remain far below their historical pace, while pricing remains robust in many local markets. And when looking at the aggregate national trend, pricing for both new and existing homes is decidedly up.

On pricing, CoreLogic's latest data show prices, which include distressed properties, rose 6.3% year over year in October. This marks the largest increase since June 2006 and the eighth-consecutive year-over-year increase in 2012.

Arizona was the standout market in CoreLogic's data, with prices rising 21.3% year over year. But guess which market is catching up? Nevada, where prices are up 12.4%. When prices were continually dropping in Nevada ( Las Vegas, in particular), we continually mentioned that it was a matter of time before they would reach a point where markets would clear and prices would rise.

When Las Vegas finally showed signs of recovery, we also posited that the real estate recovery would likely have become a country-wide phenomenon. This appears the case today.

The housing market is trending positively, to state the obvious, and it would likely trend even better if we could get more financing to more buyers. Mortgage purchase applications have been trending higher in recent weeks, but they still have a lot of room for improvement.

Unfortunately, we are still mired in a risk-averse lending market. That said, we are seeing a pick up in private participation. In the private-label residential mortgage-backed security (RMBS) market, issuance is up to $6 billion this year. That's not much, but it's more than double the $2.8 billion issued last year. Looking to next year, the market is expected to expand to $15 billion.

Discussing RMBSs might seem like delving into the arcane, but RMBSs matter because they're an indicator of private investor interest in the mortgage market. We've stated many times that more participation in mortgage lending is better than less participation.

But more participation means mortgages could get more expensive. In order to contract Fannie Mae's and Freddie Mac's presence in the mortgage market, as well as encourage the return of private capital investment, the FHFA aims to increase G-fees by 30 to 50 basis points to match recent private-label execution.

In short, we don't see mortgage financing becoming meaningfully cheaper, even though rates have eased a few basis points each week for the past month. In fact, mortgages could become more expensive in 2013.

Courtesy of Jessica Regan.

Search all Harrisburg PA homes for sale.

When you are buying or selling property in today's Harrisburg PA real estate market, it's important to have confidence in your real estate professional. Don’s commitment as your Harrisburg PA REALTOR® is to provide you with the specialized real estate service you deserve.

When you are an informed buyer or seller, you'll make the best decisions for the most important purchase or sale in your lifetime. That's why Don’s goal is to keep you informed on trends in Harrisburg PA real estate. With property values continuing to rise, real estate is a sound investment for now and for the future.

As a local area expert with knowledge of Harrisburg PA area communities, Don’s objective is to work diligently to assist you in meeting your real estate goals.

If you are considering buying or selling a home or would just like to have additional information about real estate in your area, please don't hesitate to call me at (717) 657-8700, complete my online form, or e-mail me at don@donroth.com.

When people contemplate what went wrong in the housing bubble, they frequently point to lending: subprime loans, interest-only loans, negative amortization loans, and securitization were the helium that inflated the bubble.

That's not really true, nor fair. These products have been around for years and had served the borrowing public well. The problem was really the misguided belief that an asset – housing in this case – can only rise.

The chief problem today, and a primary impediment to the housing recovery, is excessive regulation, which is limiting choice. A recent report from FBR Capital Markets points to a regulatory environment that is “plain vanilla” in that it favors the 30-year fixed-rate loan above all others.

Now, there is nothing wrong with the standard fixed-rate mortgage products, but other mortgage products have their place. Indeed, you could argue that taking an interest-only loan to purchase a Phoenix-based home late in 2011 was a savvy business move; the buyer would have tied up little of his own capital to purchase a bargain-basement asset that has since appreciated strongly.

Many regulators and even more mortgage-industry participants have called for the need for more private mortgage investors to enter the market. For that to occur, though, these investors need the freedom to offer products that will satisfy a wider swath of borrowers needs, while also enabling them to earn a profit.

We think 2013 will become the year of diversity: that is, a more diverse, heterogeneous mortgage lending market with more private investors. We say that because economic growth impacts regulation, and we see economic growth in 2013. Generally, the higher the growth, the more accommodating the regulators.

We look forward to a strong 2013, and a stronger, more flexible mortgage lending market.

Courtesy of Jessica Regan.

Search all Harrisburg PA homes for sale.

When you are buying or selling property in today's Harrisburg PA real estate market, it's important to have confidence in your real estate professional. Don’s commitment as your Harrisburg PA REALTOR® is to provide you with the specialized real estate service you deserve.

When you are an informed buyer or seller, you'll make the best decisions for the most important purchase or sale in your lifetime. That's why Don’s goal is to keep you informed on trends in Harrisburg PA real estate. With property values continuing to rise, real estate is a sound investment for now and for the future.

As a local area expert with knowledge of Harrisburg PA area communities, Don’s objective is to work diligently to assist you in meeting your real estate goals.

If you are considering buying or selling a home or would just like to have additional information about real estate in your area, please don't hesitate to call me at (717) 657-8700, complete my online form, or e-mail me at don@donroth.com.

The news was disappointing, but not terribly so. We are referring to the dip in new-homes sales for October.

The Commerce Department reports sales came in at an annual rate of 368,000 units last month, which was 17,000 shy of the consensus estimate for 385,000 units. Pricing was also a minor disappointment. The median price for a new home dipped 4.2% to $237,000. This marked the second-consecutive month of price weakness.

Disappointing, yes, but hardly a cause for concern. Year over year, new-home prices are up 5.7%. Given the scant supply of homes, we don't see a backsliding trend developing. The number of new homes for sale is still only 147,000, representing a 4.8-month supply at the current sales pace.

The longer-term perspective is another reason to remain optimistic. New-home sales have averaged 361,000 per month on an annual-rate basis through October. In other words, sales are on pace to increase 18% this year.

What's more, we have plenty of room left to run. Even with the double-digit sales increase, 2012 will be the third-lowest sales year since the Census Bureau began tracking new home sales in 1963. It's also worth remembering that this year's average sales rate is still below the 375,000 average rate of sales in 2009.

Most estimates we've seen (which are likely conservative) expect new-home sales to double within the next couple years. This would put the annual sales pace closer to historical norms, which is around 1 million sales on an annualized rate.

Though new-homes sales disappointed in October, the trend in overall pricing – new and existing homes – remains strong. Most private data providers show prices increasing in more markets. This past week, Case-Shiller's home price index showed prices rose 0.4% in the 20 cities it follows. This was the sixth-constrictive month of price gains, with gains sweeping across all 20 cities.

The trend in purchase applications is also encouraging. Rising applications point to rising home sales. Rates continue to make new historical lows (albeit by a couple basis points) each week. Low rates contribute to a high-affordability index.

Low mortgage lending rates are an important variable in the home-purchase equation, but they are not the overriding variable. The above chart shows brisk sales even with lending rates 300 basis points higher than they are today.

In other words, low lending rates have done about all they can do to stimulate sales. At this point, the key variables for a sustained housing recovery are economic growth and more credit-worthy borrowers having access to credit.

Courtesy of Jessica Regan.

Search all Harrisburg PA homes for sale.

When you are buying or selling property in today's Harrisburg PA real estate market, it's important to have confidence in your real estate professional. Don’s commitment as your Harrisburg PA REALTOR® is to provide you with the specialized real estate service you deserve.

When you are an informed buyer or seller, you'll make the best decisions for the most important purchase or sale in your lifetime. That's why Don’s goal is to keep you informed on trends in Harrisburg PA real estate. With property values continuing to rise, real estate is a sound investment for now and for the future.

As a local area expert with knowledge of Harrisburg PA area communities, Don’s objective is to work diligently to assist you in meeting your real estate goals.

If you are considering buying or selling a home or would just like to have additional information about real estate in your area, please don't hesitate to call me at (717) 657-8700, complete my online form, or e-mail me at don@donroth.com.

Last week, we wrote that housing would be the economic driver that lifts us from the morass that has plagued the economy for much of 2012. This week's slate of housing data buttresses our argument.

We'll start with existing-home sales. The data show sales rose 2.1%, to a 4.79-million annual rate, in October. Prices continue to trend higher, with the median price of an existing-home posting at $178,600, an 11% increase over the year-ago median price. The average price, meanwhile, was up 9.9% year over year to $226,300.

Supply was a minor irritant in the data. Existing-home sales likely would have been higher if there had been more homes to sell. Inventory dropped to a 5.4-month supply in October, the lowest level in 6-1/2 years. The number of existing homes on the market, at 2.14 million, is the lowest in 10 years.

Existing-home sales contribute to economic growth, just not as much as new-home sales. Before a new home is sold, it must be built. Construction activity has far-reaching implications. Construction requires new material, new employment, and new financing. Many more businesses are impacted by the sale of a new home than an existing home.

For these reasons, new-home activity is a key component in economic activity.

The good news is that home builders are maintaining a busy construction schedule these days. New home starts were up again in October, rising 3.6% to an annual pace of 894,000 units. The pace in starts is up to a level unseen in over four years.

Given the strong, persistent trend in starts, we weren't surprised to see home-builder sentiment rise yet again. The latest survey of home builders show sentiment is approaching a seven-year high at 46 (50 is the point were optimists and pessimists are split). We expect sentiment, along with new home sales and starts, to trend higher through December and into 2013.

We remain bullish on sales because the housing recovery continues to expand to more markets. Zillow’s October Real Estate Market Reports show that 228 (62%) of the 366 markets it follows saw annual home-value appreciation in October. Among the top 30 metropolitan regions, 29 experienced monthly home-value appreciation.

Financing also continues to trend positively. The Mortgage Bankers Association reports its purchase index was up 3% for the November 6 week. Though applications are volatile week to week, they remain in an up trend dating back to April.

We've mentioned many times that leveraging an appreciating asset is a smart financial move. Borrowing to pay part of the purchase price means realizing a higher return on investment, because borrowing (leverage) requires less equity commitment.

Low lending rates also goose investment returns. Mortgage lending rates continue to hover near all-time lows, and we don't see that changing in the immediate future. Keep in mind, though, should housing ignite economic growth, lending rates will be hard pressed to maintain today's all-time lows.

Courtesy of Jessica Regan.

Search all Harrisburg PA homes for sale.

When you are buying or selling property in today's Harrisburg PA real estate market, it's important to have confidence in your real estate professional. Don’s commitment as your Harrisburg PA REALTOR® is to provide you with the specialized real estate service you deserve.

When you are an informed buyer or seller, you'll make the best decisions for the most important purchase or sale in your lifetime. That's why Don’s goal is to keep you informed on trends in Harrisburg PA real estate. With property values continuing to rise, real estate is a sound investment for now and for the future.

As a local area expert with knowledge of Harrisburg PA area communities, Don’s objective is to work diligently to assist you in meeting your real estate goals.

If you are considering buying or selling a home or would just like to have additional information about real estate in your area, please don't hesitate to call me at (717) 657-8700, complete my online form, or e-mail me at don@donroth.com.

With the year coming to a close we can look at this chart and say when reviewing the prices of sold homes that things are not getting better in the Greater Harrisburg PA real estate market. BUT the number of sold homes increased and the all important days on market (time required to secure a sales contract) has decreased markedly. Yes you can say that the median and average sales price has declined and it has but the number of home for sale has decreased by over 5% compared to October 2011 and the homes that have sold but not settled has increased by 35% over the same time last year. We have been saying things will improve but any improvement will not be without some bumps in the road. October is a good indication of that. Later on I will give a breakdown of the sales for the school districts comparing 2011 vs 2012. Please remember the market is getting better and good things happen for those who wait.

HAPPY THANKSGIVING.

Search all Harrisburg PA homes for sale.

When you are buying or selling property in today's Harrisburg PA real estate market, it's important to have confidence in your real estate professional. Don’s commitment as your Harrisburg PA REALTOR® is to provide you with the specialized real estate service you deserve.

When you are an informed buyer or seller, you'll make the best decisions for the most important purchase or sale in your lifetime. That's why Don’s goal is to keep you informed on trends in Harrisburg PA real estate. With property values continuing to rise, real estate is a sound investment for now and for the future.

As a local area expert with knowledge of Harrisburg PA area communities, Don’s objective is to work diligently to assist you in meeting your real estate goals.

If you are considering buying or selling a home or would just like to have additional information about real estate in your area, please don't hesitate to call me at (717) 657-8700, complete my online form, or e-mail me at don@donroth.com.

The foreclosure data continue to trend positively. RealtyTrac reports foreclosure filings declined 3 percent month-over-month in July and are down 10% year-over—year.

We are not surprised by the downward trend in foreclosures; it's simply more remunerative for banks to seek other alternatives than taking back a house. RealtyTrac reports that short sales, on average, sell for $25,000 more than an REO property.

Banks are no doubt being helped by the persistent uptrend in prices. On that front, CoreLogic reports national prices rose 2.5 percent year-over-year in June, and 6 percent in the second quarter of 2012 compared to the first quarter.

Supply is a main price driver: there simply isn't enough supply to meet growing demand, particularly in the starter and low-price segments. Investor demand is impacting supply. Given the strong rental demand in many markets, investors are buying homes and turning them into rentals instead of flipping them; thus keeping the properties off the market.

As for new-home supply, builders only recently began to ramp up construction. New-home inventory is at levels unseen in decades. (Keep in mind; decades ago there were also fewer people.) More demand and less supply can only lead to one outcome – higher prices.

At the beginning of the year, few pundits were expecting prices to rise in 2012. Today, many have changed their tune. Zelman & Associates, a real estate research firm, for one, recently revised its forecast, predicting prices will rise 5 percent nationally in 2012. At the beginning of the year, Zelman's forecast a 1-percent decline.

Negative equity remains a problem in many markets, and that's also helping to keep supply low. But as prices move higher, more of these properties will turn positive. An even stronger price trend will, in turn, draw more buyers and more sellers into the market. That means more overall transaction activity, which means rising mortgage purchase demand.

As for rates on current mortgage demand, they moved up this past week. Most products saw a three or four basis-point increase. Given the trend in 10-year Treasury yields, we don't expect to see a pullback. Over the past two weeks, the yield on the 10-year Treasury note has increased nearly 30 basis points. This suggests that investors are becoming less risk averse, pulling money out of Treasuries and putting that money into riskier investments: Over the same two-week period, the S&P 500 stock index is up over 6 percent.

Yes, the Federal Reserve has stated that it's determined to hold long-term lending rates low for the next two years, but don't assume the Fed can automatically achieve its goal. Markets are dynamic forces, and if more investors sell bonds in favor of other investments, yields on Treasury securities will continue to rise. That means mortgage lending rates will rise too.

Search all Harrisburg PA homes for sale.

When you are buying or selling property in today's Harrisburg PA real estate market, it's important to have confidence in your real estate professional. Don’s commitment as your Harrisburg PA REALTOR® is to provide you with the specialized real estate service you deserve.

When you are an informed buyer or seller, you'll make the best decisions for the most important purchase or sale in your lifetime. That's why Don’s goal is to keep you informed on trends in Harrisburg PA real estate. With property values continuing to rise, real estate is a sound investment for now and for the future.

As a local area expert with knowledge of Harrisburg PA area communities, Don’s objective is to work diligently to assist you in meeting your real estate goals.

If you are considering buying or selling a home or would just like to have additional information about real estate in your area, please don't hesitate to call me at (717) 657-8700, complete my online form, or e-mail me at don@donroth.com.

I wanted to provide some interim information on the Harrisburg PA real estate market.

Sold Homes

Homes sold and settled for the first two months of 2012 are up over 10% when compared to the same period of 2011. And homes that are under contract in the same period are up over 15%. What do I attribute that to? As I have been saying for the past few months one of the factors is the incredible low interest rate environment for one and I also think the great weather we have had has been a possible influence on the market. And yes some very attractive pricing also has had an impact for the increase in sales for this period.

Average Sales Price

There is one piece of sobering news and that is the average sales price of Harrisburg PA real estate has declined to $166,078 and that is approximately an 8% decrease for the first two months compared to 2011. But in my opinion, that there has been such a decrease does not concern me as we progress through the remainder of this year. Why can I say this? Because I have seen many homes come to the market recently and be under contract within 10 to 15 days and in many price ranges and we haven’t seen the numbers like this in a few years. And the activity crosses many price ranges although the higher priced homes are still moving at a slower pace than the lower priced homes.

I just wanted to give some good news to potential buyers and sellers and within the next week I will provide the normal breakdown for school districts for your review. And if would like to scan the most up to date data on homes that are currently for sale in the Harrisburg area, please visit my web site, www.DonRoth.com, and click on the search listings tab and you will have a wealth of information available to you. Have a great day and enjoy our fabulous weather.

Search all Harrisburg PA homes for sale.

When you are buying or selling property in today's Harrisburg PA real estate market, it's important to have confidence in your real estate professional. Don’s commitment as your Harrisburg PA REALTOR® is to provide you with the specialized real estate service you deserve.

When you are an informed buyer or seller, you'll make the best decisions for the most important purchase or sale in your lifetime. That's why Don’s goal is to keep you informed on trends in Harrisburg PA real estate. With property values continuing to rise, real estate is a sound investment for now and for the future.

As a local area expert with knowledge of Harrisburg PA area communities, Don’s objective is to work diligently to assist you in meeting your real estate goals.

If you are considering buying or selling a home or would just like to have additional information about real estate in your area, please don't hesitate to call me at (717) 657-8700, complete my online form, or e-mail me at don@donroth.com