Real Estate Information Archive

Earlier this year, we said that we expected the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage to rise to 5%. For a while, we appeared clairvoyant. Rates took flight in May and continued to gain altitude through August. Many credit-market participants were expecting the Federal Reserve to begin tapering support for low interest rates beginning in September, thus rates ran up in anticipation of the event.

But as September approached, we become more circumspect on the Fed actually tapering. The economic data were simply too negative, pointing to continued low job growth and low inflation – two variables that carry considerable weight with the Fed. We even came out and predicted that the Fed was unlikely to begin tapering. We were one of the few market watchers who expected quantitative easing – purchases of mortgage and Treasury securities – to continue unabated.

Many market watchers now expect the Fed to begin tapering early next year; we're not so sure. Unemployment remains stubbornly high and economic growth remains stubbornly low. Little progress has been made on either front for most of 2013. By all indications, we don't expect much progress to be made in the near term.

In other words, we expect the Federal Reserve to continue to keep mortgage lending rates low. Of course, we can't say they will remain low through 2014, but we see them remaining low through at least the first quarter.

In the recent past, we've said that there was little impetus for the rate on the 30-year loan to fall meaningful lower. We'll amend that to say that we wouldn't be surprised to see 4% – a meaningfully low rate – on the 30-year loan before the end of the year.

Courtesy of Jessica Regan.

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When you are buying or selling property in today's Harrisburg PA real estate market, it's important to have confidence in your real estate professional. Don’s commitment as your Harrisburg PA REALTOR® is to provide you with the specialized real estate service you deserve.

When you are an informed buyer or seller, you'll make the best decisions for the most important purchase or sale in your lifetime. That's why Don’s goal is to keep you informed on trends in Harrisburg PA real estate. With property values continuing to rise, real estate is a sound investment for now and for the future.

As a local area expert with knowledge of Harrisburg PA area communities, Don’s objective is to work diligently to assist you in meeting your real estate goals.

If you are considering buying or selling a home or would just like to have additional information about real estate in your area, please don't hesitate to call me at (717) 657-8700, complete my online form, or e-mail me at don@donroth.com.

We long for a return to a normalized mortgage and housing market; that is, a market before the housing boom and bust. We certainly aren't there on the mortgage side, where a normalized market would be characterized by higher lending rates, more private-market participation, and less-restrictive lending practices.

Housing is a different story. We thought we were moving toward normalization, where owner-occupied buyers' share of the market was growing. It appears we jumped the gun.

The latest data from RealtyTrac show investors are still very much in force. Institutional investors, in particular, remain a major market player. Institutional investors – REITs, private equity, and hedge funds – accounted for 14% of all sales in September, up from 9% in August. Their activity is reflected in the percentage of all-cash purchases, which represented 49% of all residential purchases in September, up from 40% in August.

Of course, we have nothing against investors, but institutional investors are a new phenomenon. In the past, investors in the single-family rental market were primarily individuals or small partnerships. In recent years, billions of dollars of institutional money has flooded the market.

Institutional investors have certainly impacted prices. We suspect their money has also lead to increased price volatility. This is something to consider should you read of institutional money entering or leaving your particular local market. When institutional money enters a market, prices can move meaningfully higher. And the opposite is true when it leaves – prices can move meaningfully lower.

Courtesy of Jessica Regan.

Search all Harrisburg PA homes for sale.

When you are buying or selling property in today's Harrisburg PA real estate market, it's important to have confidence in your real estate professional. Don’s commitment as your Harrisburg PA REALTOR® is to provide you with the specialized real estate service you deserve.

When you are an informed buyer or seller, you'll make the best decisions for the most important purchase or sale in your lifetime. That's why Don’s goal is to keep you informed on trends in Harrisburg PA real estate. With property values continuing to rise, real estate is a sound investment for now and for the future.

As a local area expert with knowledge of Harrisburg PA area communities, Don’s objective is to work diligently to assist you in meeting your real estate goals.

If you are considering buying or selling a home or would just like to have additional information about real estate in your area, please don't hesitate to call me at (717) 657-8700, complete my online form, or e-mail me at don@donroth.com.

Slowing But Still Steady

More evidence points to slowing home-price appreciation. The Federal Housing Finance Agency's (FHFA) latest data show home prices rose again in August, but the rate of increase slowed. Prices rose only 0.3% in August compared with 0.8% in July, which had been revised down from 1%.

We've been warning for some time now that the pace of home-price appreciation will likely abate. Double-digit annual price increases are unsustainable for simple economic reasons: Rising prices reduce demand. At the same time, rising prices draw in more supply, which presents more buying options and more price competition.

Supply is certainly on the rise. After trending lower through 2011 and 2012, the inventory of homes for sale has trended mostly higher through 2012, according to NAR data. We shouldn't be surprised, then, that homes are appreciating at a slower rate.

As for mortgage rates, they continued to trend lower this week. Bankrate.com's survey shows the average rate on the conforming 30-year fixed-rate loan at 4.27%. Freddie Mac's survey puts the average at 4.13%.

For the past month, we've been saying we expect the 30-year loan to fluctuate between 4.25% and 4.50%. We are obviously at the lower limit of that range, and we we don't expect rates to go much lower.

We say that because credit markets are already factoring in no tapering for the immediate future. This means most market participants don't expect the Federal Reserve to reduce its monthly purchases of Treasury notes and bonds and mortgage-backed securities (MBS) this year. The good news of continued Fed support is factored into today's mortgage rates.

Unless the economy materially worsens or the Fed ramps up its monthly purchases even more (which is unlikely), there really is no impetus for mortgage rates to fall much further. Indeed, the odds favor rates rising, because as soon as the Fed announces it will begin tapering, rates will rise. Keep in mind, the Fed will have to taper one of these days.

Of course, the rate itself is only one variable in the cost of a mortgage loan. Fees are another variable, and they could be on the rise. New rules on ability to pay are slated to hit the mortgage market in January. Unless something changes between now and then, fees borrowers pay will certainly rise because costs to lenders will rise.

To be sure, lenders are fighting back with a lobbying effort, and they appear to be making inroads. But we can never be sure in matters of politics. So the bottom line is the risk of waiting for something better tomorrow outweighs the benefit of acting on today's known lower-rate, lower-cost mortgage.

Search all Harrisburg PA homes for sale.

When you are buying or selling property in today's Harrisburg PA real estate market, it's important to have confidence in your real estate professional. Don’s commitment as your Harrisburg PA REALTOR® is to provide you with the specialized real estate service you deserve.

When you are an informed buyer or seller, you'll make the best decisions for the most important purchase or sale in your lifetime. That's why Don’s goal is to keep you informed on trends in Harrisburg PA real estate. With property values continuing to rise, real estate is a sound investment for now and for the future.

As a local area expert with knowledge of Harrisburg PA area communities, Don’s objective is to work diligently to assist you in meeting your real estate goals.

If you are considering buying or selling a home or would just like to have additional information about real estate in your area, please don't hesitate to call me at (717) 657-8700, complete my online form, or e-mail me at don@donroth.com.

Whenever we buy an asset, our natural desire is for that asset's value to appreciate. The faster it appreciates, the better we like it.

There is something to be said for slow and steady, though. When prices appreciate at a slower pace, they, in turn, lead to a wider, more stable market. We say that because the faster an asset's value appreciates, the faster it reduces the pool of potential buyers. The market, in short, becomes less inclusive, and frequently more volatile.

In addition, double-digit annual price gains have significantly lowered affordability. The Wall Street Journal reports that h ousing affordability hit a four-year low in August. The strong price gains we saw during spring and early summer pushed more homes out of the reach of more people.

This latest data suggest we could see a temporary slowdown in new and existing home sales in the waning months of 2013. Slower sales growth and lower price-appreciation should help recalibrate the market with more realistic exceptions. This is a good thing. As we noted last week, a return to a normalized market is the goal, and the sooner we get there the better. Courtesy of Jessica Regan.

Search all Harrisburg PA homes for sale.

When you are buying or selling property in today's Harrisburg PA real estate market, it's important to have confidence in your real estate professional. Don’s commitment as your Harrisburg PA REALTOR® is to provide you with the specialized real estate service you deserve.

When you are an informed buyer or seller, you'll make the best decisions for the most important purchase or sale in your lifetime. That's why Don’s goal is to keep you informed on trends in Harrisburg PA real estate. With property values continuing to rise, real estate is a sound investment for now and for the future.

As a local area expert with knowledge of Harrisburg PA area communities, Don’s objective is to work diligently to assist you in meeting your real estate goals.

If you are considering buying or selling a home or would just like to have additional information about real estate in your area, please don't hesitate to call me at (717) 657-8700, complete my online form, or e-mail me at don@donroth.com.

Time to Exhale

It appears a disaster was averted: The debt ceiling was raised and the federal government won't default on its debt.

We can't say we were surprised at the outcome. We mentioned last week that we thought a default was unlikely. The money was always there to make interest payments and to pay off maturing debt. In addition, there are too many politically connected constituents – banks not the least of them – for politicians to allow a default.

We also noted that “shutdown” was a misnomer. Over 80% of the federal government was still up and running. Unfortunately, the portion furloughed impacted the mortgage market. Applications for government-sponsored loans dropped by more than 7% last week. Conventional activity was similarly limited due to delays in verifying income with the tax collectors. With everyone back to work, mortgage lending should ramp up and loans should be approved in a more timely manner going forward.

When the political imbroglio began a few weeks ago, we noted that we expected the rate on the conforming 30-year fixed-rate loan to hold within a 4.25%-to-4.50% range. That's been the case. This week, Bankrate.com's survey showed the rate on the 30-year loan averaged 4.42%, while Freddie Mac's survey showed it averaged 4.28%.

We expect rates to remains staid for the next week or so. Some of the government departments furloughed were responsible for producing economic data. Since the furlough, there's been a dearth of insight into the state of the economy. That will soon change over the next week, and we should begin receiving an influx of scheduled data in short order.

In the meantime, the Federal Reserve offered some insight into the state of the economy this past week. Not surprising, nothing has really changed: Economic growth remains sluggish. In the Fed's Beige Book, a report released every six weeks, worlds like “modest” and “moderate” peppered the text, as they have in previous releases for much of 2013.

Of course, the private data providers continued to function. On that front, FNC's Residential Price Index shows housing prices moved higher by 0.6% in August to post the 18 th month of consecutive gains.

We've been warning over the past month that the strong price gains we've seen over the past two years will soon abate. Looking ahead, we expect price data providers CoreLogic, Case-Shiller, and Zillow to start reporting slower month-over-month gains.

A point worth emphasizing is the hotter the market, the greater the likelihood of reduced price growth. Another point worth emphasizing – one we've emphasized previously – is that slowing price growth isn't bad. We want to get back to the way real estate has historically functioned in most markets – slow, steady, with low volatility.Courtesy of Jessica Regan.

Search all Harrisburg PA homes for sale.

When you are buying or selling property in today's Harrisburg PA real estate market, it's important to have confidence in your real estate professional. Don’s commitment as your Harrisburg PA REALTOR® is to provide you with the specialized real estate service you deserve.

When you are an informed buyer or seller, you'll make the best decisions for the most important purchase or sale in your lifetime. That's why Don’s goal is to keep you informed on trends in Harrisburg PA real estate. With property values continuing to rise, real estate is a sound investment for now and for the future.

As a local area expert with knowledge of Harrisburg PA area communities, Don’s objective is to work diligently to assist you in meeting your real estate goals.

If you are considering buying or selling a home or would just like to have additional information about real estate in your area, please don't hesitate to call me at (717) 657-8700, complete my online form, or e-mail me at don@donroth.com.

It appears investors have finally had their fill. In many housing markets, sales volume and price appreciation have been driven by investors. Their activity was reflected in a high percentage of all-cash transactions. The number of these transactions has dropped noticeably over the past few months, particularly in popular investment markets like Las Vegas and Phoenix.

We will likely see a continued decline in investor activity going forward. This means price appreciation growth will continue to slow. We've mentioned in recent months that the days of double-digit year-over-year price appreciation are nearly over. Investors were a major contributor to price appreciation; their leaving the market will surely impact prices.

This isn't bad news. Stability is an important variable in a healthy market. When expectations are calibrated to how the housing market has historically operated, more people will be willing to buy and sell a home. The market in total will become more fluid – buying, selling, and financing will become an easier and more predictable process.

So embrace slower price growth, because it ensures a more stable, more profitable market in the long term. More important, it instills less speculation and a higher degree of certainty, which is what we all want when we attempt to accurately gauge the outcome of a major purchase like a home.

Courtesy of Jessica Regan.

Search all Harrisburg PA homes for sale.

When you are buying or selling property in today's Harrisburg PA real estate market, it's important to have confidence in your real estate professional. Don’s commitment as your Harrisburg PA REALTOR® is to provide you with the specialized real estate service you deserve.

When you are an informed buyer or seller, you'll make the best decisions for the most important purchase or sale in your lifetime. That's why Don’s goal is to keep you informed on trends in Harrisburg PA real estate. With property values continuing to rise, real estate is a sound investment for now and for the future.

As a local area expert with knowledge of Harrisburg PA area communities, Don’s objective is to work diligently to assist you in meeting your real estate goals.

If you are considering buying or selling a home or would just like to have additional information about real estate in your area, please don't hesitate to call me at (717) 657-8700, complete my online form, or e-mail me at don@donroth.com.

Was This Much Ado About Nothing?

Political wrangling on the federal debt ceiling and the Affordable Care Act (Obamacare) helped to hold mortgage rates in check for another week.

Bankrate.com's national survey reports an average rate of 4.39% on the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage. Freddie Mac's survey shows the national average rate at 4.23% on the same loan, which is roughly where it was last week.

Rates have been held at these levels on raised financial market risk. Many market participants are concerned the government slowdown will lead to slower economic growth. The rationale being that furloughed government workers would spend less, and thus the economy would slow.

At the same time, more investors are fearful the government will default on its debt. Most financial institutions and many individuals own U.S. Treasury notes and bonds (either directly or through a mutual fund). These securities are perceived as ultra-safe investments. A default would negate that perception and investors would sell en masse, thus generating huge financial losses.

The fears, quite frankly, are over done. The economy is powered as much by investing and savings as by consumption. To be sure, everything produced is made to consume, but there are vast production stages that generate paychecks and spending that go unnoticed in economic-growth statistics. In short, the furlough workers and the reduced government activity itself isn't having as much of an impact as many believe.

That said, private companies that require government approval to transact business are being hurt – mortgage lenders are one – and that could lead to slower economic growth.

As for defaulting on the natural debt, that's also very unlikely. The federal government brings in roughly $253 billion a month in revenue. Interest on the national debt is around $20 billion, or less than 8% of monthly income. There is plenty of revenue flowing in to pay creditors, as well as to pay people owed money through Social Security and government pensions.

For now, mortgage rates are at levels unseen since mid-June. When the latest political brouhaha began a few weeks ago, we opined that the rate on the 30-year loan would fall within a 4.25%-to-4.50% range. So far, we've been on target.

We seriously doubt rates will go any lower. More likely, they will move higher: Fears of a default have abated and a deal appears imminent on the debt ceiling that will have the government up-and-running in full soon.

In fact, the yield on the 10-year Treasury note is already up over 10-basis points this week. As the 10-year Treasury note goes, so, too, goes the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage.

Yields are moving up despite the high likelihood that the current Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke will be be replaced by lead candidate Janet Yellen. Ms Yellen supports continuing the quantitative easing and low-rate interest policies currently in place. Nevertheless, rates are still moving higher.

We believe we are at a bottom in interest rates, which means we see little reason to wait to apply for a mortgage. Admittedly, there are delays in dealing with the federal government to verify borrower information, but it's still worthwhile to get the process started nonetheless.

Courtesy of Jessica Regan.

Search all Harrisburg PA homes for sale.

When you are buying or selling property in today's Harrisburg PA real estate market, it's important to have confidence in your real estate professional. Don’s commitment as your Harrisburg PA REALTOR® is to provide you with the specialized real estate service you deserve.

When you are an informed buyer or seller, you'll make the best decisions for the most important purchase or sale in your lifetime. That's why Don’s goal is to keep you informed on trends in Harrisburg PA real estate. With property values continuing to rise, real estate is a sound investment for now and for the future.

As a local area expert with knowledge of Harrisburg PA area communities, Don’s objective is to work diligently to assist you in meeting your real estate goals.

If you are considering buying or selling a home or would just like to have additional information about real estate in your area, please don't hesitate to call me at (717) 657-8700, complete my online form, or e-mail me at don@donroth.com.

We've been warning that double-digit year-over-year home-price increases would likely end soon.

Perhaps we were too pessimistic. CoreLogic’s Pending Home Price Index report for September puts price growth in the 12.7%-range, and shows 0.2% appreciation month over month. This suggest home prices could continue to grow at a double-digit year-over-year rate through the end of the year.

To be sure, home prices could continue to post double-digit gains through 2013, but we doubt they will be sustained much longer than that. Double-digit annual gains are simply unsustainable for an extended period of time.

The good news is that single-digit annual price gains – 3%-to-5% – are sustainable, and we think they will prevail from 2014 on. We say that because there is still plenty of pent-up housing demand, particularly for younger adults who are suffering the most from the current economic malaise.

When the economy finally kicks into gear, and we expect that to occur sooner than later, more buyer demand will hit the market. Home sales volume will improve and prices will continue to appreciate.

We are not alone in our assessment. Goldman Sachs recently released a paper titled “Where is the Pent-Up Housing Demand?” that supports many of the contentions we've made over the past year: namely that lack of job growth, more than anything, is holding back the market. The paper also supports our contention that the vast majority of non-homeowners still aspire to homeownership. We are a buyer, not renter, nation.

So, no, the housing recovery hasn't stalled. We still see price appreciation, and we see substantial sales-volume increases when the long-overdue economic recovery finally arrives.

Courtesy of Jessica Regan.

Search all Harrisburg PA homes for sale.

When you are buying or selling property in today's Harrisburg PA real estate market, it's important to have confidence in your real estate professional. Don’s commitment as your Harrisburg PA REALTOR® is to provide you with the specialized real estate service you deserve.

When you are an informed buyer or seller, you'll make the best decisions for the most important purchase or sale in your lifetime. That's why Don’s goal is to keep you informed on trends in Harrisburg PA real estate. With property values continuing to rise, real estate is a sound investment for now and for the future.

As a local area expert with knowledge of Harrisburg PA area communities, Don’s objective is to work diligently to assist you in meeting your real estate goals.

If you are considering buying or selling a home or would just like to have additional information about real estate in your area, please don't hesitate to call me at (717) 657-8700, complete my online form, or e-mail me at don@donroth.com.

Now What?

Things have played out pretty much as we expected: The Affordable Healthcare Act (Obamacare) was implemented on schedule. Congress and the president were unable to reach a budget agreement, hence the federal government shutdown.

Actually, the federal government didn't really shut down. Roughly 30% of the civilian government workforce was simply furloughed. Most government departments continue to function. So “shutdown” isn't the right word; “cutback” is more like it.

Whatever we call it, the furloughs and cutbacks have impacted the mortgage market. Because many IRS employees were furloughed, it's taking lenders longer to verify reported income with the IRS. Without verification, it's impossible to sell mortgage loans on the secondary financial markets. This liquidity is vital to mortgage lending.

Needless to say, delays are proving frustrating to lender and borrower alike, especially in light of lower mortgage rates. In the past weeks, we've opined that interest rates would likely fall with the rise in uncertainty the budget impasse and new healthcare legislation imparts. That's been the case: the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note – a bellwether for long-term mortgage rates – has fallen 15 basis points to below 2.60%.

In turn, mortgage rates have fallen. Our best estimate was that we'd see the rate on the 30-year fixed-rate loan vacillate between 4.25% and 4.50%. Depending on which survey you look at, we are either right or somewhat right. Bankrate.com's national survey puts the average rate at 4.41%, while Freddie Mac's survey puts it at 4.22%.

The frustration on our end is raised because borrowers are having a difficult time exploiting today's lower rates. To be sure, lower rates are a nice relief, but if you're unable to close on a low-rate loan in a timely manner, what's the point?

But don't give up.

Anyone looking to refinance a mortgage or purchase a house shouldn't delay the financing process. If they are concerned about rates rising, they should consider locking their rate for a longer period. Admittedly, rates could go lower, but they could also go higher – and go higher in a hurry should a budget deal be announced.

Of course, none of us knows when that will happen. But with the long-term impetus for rates to rise, the benefits of waiting to capture a significantly lower rate is more than offset by the risk of waiting and being faced with a much higher rate.

Courtesy of Jessica Regan.

Search all Harrisburg PA homes for sale.

When you are buying or selling property in today's Harrisburg PA real estate market, it's important to have confidence in your real estate professional. Don’s commitment as your Harrisburg PA REALTOR® is to provide you with the specialized real estate service you deserve.

When you are an informed buyer or seller, you'll make the best decisions for the most important purchase or sale in your lifetime. That's why Don’s goal is to keep you informed on trends in Harrisburg PA real estate. With property values continuing to rise, real estate is a sound investment for now and for the future.

As a local area expert with knowledge of Harrisburg PA area communities, Don’s objective is to work diligently to assist you in meeting your real estate goals.

If you are considering buying or selling a home or would just like to have additional information about real estate in your area, please don't hesitate to call me at (717) 657-8700, complete my online form, or e-mail me at don@donroth.com.

Higher prices bring in more supply; more supply leads to lower prices.

This is how things are shaping up in the new-home market. Sales jumped 7.9% to an annual rate of 421,000 units in August. The number of new homes for sale rose 6,000 for the month. Supply stands at five months, a considerable improvement over the 4.6-month supply that prevailed a year ago.

More supply – more new homes – means pricing pressure. The median new home price slipped 0.7% to $254,600 in August, marking the fourth-consecutive monthly decline. This follows the news on existing-home sales, which showed a slight downtick in the median price to $212,100.

Over the past couple months, we've been warning that price appreciation will likely slow. The latest data from the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index support our contention. Case-Shiller's 20-city index shows price growth slowed to 0.6% in July, down from 0.9% in the prior two months.

Trends don't last in perpetuity, so a slowdown in price-appreciation was (is) inevitable. Because trends don't last in perpetuity, we pounded the table hard in 2010 and 2011 for buyers to get in the game. We were adamant back then because we expected the downward price trend to soon reverse course, which it did.

We expect price-appreciation growth to continue to slow. More supply will come to market, because more sellers will see slowing price growth and will want to capture gains. In turn, their actions will further slow price-appreciation growth.

That said, if anyone is waiting for slow-to-no price growth, he or she needs to keep in mind that any money saved on a purchase price could easily be offset by higher financing costs.

 Courtesy of Jessica Regan.

Search all Harrisburg PA homes for sale.

When you are buying or selling property in today's Harrisburg PA real estate market, it's important to have confidence in your real estate professional. Don’s commitment as your Harrisburg PA REALTOR® is to provide you with the specialized real estate service you deserve.

When you are an informed buyer or seller, you'll make the best decisions for the most important purchase or sale in your lifetime. That's why Don’s goal is to keep you informed on trends in Harrisburg PA real estate. With property values continuing to rise, real estate is a sound investment for now and for the future.

As a local area expert with knowledge of Harrisburg PA area communities, Don’s objective is to work diligently to assist you in meeting your real estate goals.

If you are considering buying or selling a home or would just like to have additional information about real estate in your area, please don't hesitate to call me at (717) 657-8700, complete my online form, or e-mail me at don@donroth.com.