Real Estate Information Archive

Employment is a key variable in the Federal Reserve's interest-rate equation. The lower the unemployment rate, the greater the chance the Fed will target higher interest rates. But there are a few mitigating variables, and a few are unique in the annals of recent history.

For one, we have low consumer price inflation. Oil and gas prices are as low as they've been in the past five years. This helps keep consumer price inflation below the Fed's target rate of 2%.(Inflation has actually been running below the Fed's target rate for a few years now.)

In addition, central banks around the world have embarked on their own version of quantitative easing. Last year, Japan's central bank announced it would swell its monetary base by $712 million. This year, the European Central Bank announced it would swell the European Union's monetary base by $1 trillion. Both Japan's central bank and the ECB are buying bonds (much like the Fed did) to accomplish their mission.

More yen and more euros has caused the U.S. dollar to appreciate relative to both currencies (and many of the world's currencies). If the Fed would raise interest rates, the dollar would become even more attractive compared to most currencies because dollar-denominated debt will offer a higher yield. (Demand for dollars would rise to buy this debt.)

Finally, the job market might not be as strong as the unemployment rate leads us to believe. In the past, the labor participation rate was consistently above 63%. The participation rate remains below that level today. It's possible an excess of potential labor remains on the sidelines, which makes the official unemployment rate appear better than it is.

Interest rates are tough to predict, but we wouldn't be surprised to see June come and go with no interest rate increase from the Fed.

Information provided by Jessica Regan.

Search all Harrisburg PA homes for sale.

When you are buying or selling property in today's Harrisburg PA real estate market, it's important to have confidence in your real estate professional. Don’s commitment as your Harrisburg PA REALTOR® is to provide you with the specialized real estate service you deserve.

When you are an informed buyer or seller, you'll make the best decisions for the most important purchase or sale in your lifetime. That's why Don’s goal is to keep you informed on trends in Harrisburg PA real estate. With property values continuing to rise, real estate is a sound investment for now and for the future.

As a local area expert with knowledge of Harrisburg PA area communities, Don’s objective is to work diligently to assist you in meeting your real estate goals.

If you are considering buying or selling a home or would just like to have additional information about real estate in your area, please don't hesitate to call me at (717) 657-8700, complete my online form, or e-mail me at don@donroth.com.

It has taken nearly a year, but existing-home sales are finally moving in the right direction. Sales were up once again, climbing 2.6% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.04 million homes in June. This marks the third-consecutive month of national gains.

The existing-home market appears as healthy as it has been for some time. Sales were up, and so were prices. The median price of an existing home increased a stout 5.3% month over month to $223,300. What's more, total existing-home inventory rose to a 5.5-month supply at the current sales pace.

So we have rising inventory and rising sales, which point to a lower rate of price appreciation. As more supply comes to market, price growth will naturally ease (though the rate of easing will be tempered by additional demand). Slower price growth coupled with a consistent level of inventory and demand point to a healthier overall market.

Many market participants were encouraged by double-digit annual price increases after the bubble burst in 2008, but double-digit annual increases aren't the norm. They can lead to another bubble if they continue for an extended period. This is why we welcome annual price appreciation in the low-to-mid single digits at the national level.

Of course, local markets are impacted by variables unique to the area – demography, supply, demand, job growth, composition of jobs, etc. – but over the long-haul the rate of price appreciation and the rate of sales will tend to moderate to a lower-single-digit mean.

The good news is the existing-home market is progressing at the national level. The bad news is the new-home market is regressing. This is somewhat surprising, given the strong gains in home-builder optimism in recent months.

New-home sales were actually quite pitiful in June, plunging 8.1% month over month to 406,000 units on an annualized rate. The drop in sales raised supply to 5.8 months vs May's 5.2 months. Total new homes for sale increased to 197,000 vs 191,000.

What's more, discounting couldn't even move inventory. The median price of a new home declined 3.2% month over month to $273,500. Year over year, the median price of a new home is up 5.3%, but sales are down 11.5%.

If demand falls to pick up, either more discounting is in store or fewer homes will be constructed. If either scenario materializes, you can be sure builder sentiment will dive.

Information provided by Jessica Regan.

Search all Harrisburg PA homes for sale.

When you are buying or selling property in today's Harrisburg PA real estate market, it's important to have confidence in your real estate professional. Don’s commitment as your Harrisburg PA REALTOR® is to provide you with the specialized real estate service you deserve.

When you are an informed buyer or seller, you'll make the best decisions for the most important purchase or sale in your lifetime. That's why Don’s goal is to keep you informed on trends in Harrisburg PA real estate. With property values continuing to rise, real estate is a sound investment for now and for the future.

As a local area expert with knowledge of Harrisburg PA area communities, Don’s objective is to work diligently to assist you in meeting your real estate goals.

If you are considering buying or selling a home or would just like to have additional information about real estate in your area, please don't hesitate to call me at (717) 657-8700, complete my online form, or e-mail me at don@donroth.com.

Tight credit is frequent lament. In a Redfin survey , 16% of respondents stated that difficulty in obtaining financing was a challenge in the second quarter of 2014 compared to 8% in the first quarter.

This might be the perception, but the reality is that credit is gradually becoming easier to obtain, and that's been the case for the past two years. The Mortgage Bankers Association Mortgage Credit Availability Index continues to creep higher. In June, the index posted at 115.8 compared to 115.1 in May, which was better than the 113.8 in April. The index was set at 100 in March 2012.

To be sure, the younger crowd still has some difficulty with financing. As we noted a couple weeks ago, high student- loan debt is an issue. Obviously, that drives up the debt-to-income ratio. That aside, the issues aren't materially different for younger people today compared to younger people of previous generations. When starting off in life, most of us lack assets and have to scrimp to get head. That hasn't change.

The good news is housing continues to change for the better for all age groups. Price appreciation is falling back in line with historical norms. The prospect of slower price growth will bring more homes to market; there will be less incentive to hold out for a higher price. This, in turn, will further slow price growth.

The bottom Line: More people will be able to afford a home, and more funding will be available to those who want to buy a home. That's good news for everyone .

Information provided by Jessica Regan.

Search all Harrisburg PA homes for sale.

When you are buying or selling property in today's Harrisburg PA real estate market, it's important to have confidence in your real estate professional. Don’s commitment as your Harrisburg PA REALTOR® is to provide you with the specialized real estate service you deserve.

When you are an informed buyer or seller, you'll make the best decisions for the most important purchase or sale in your lifetime. That's why Don’s goal is to keep you informed on trends in Harrisburg PA real estate. With property values continuing to rise, real estate is a sound investment for now and for the future.

As a local area expert with knowledge of Harrisburg PA area communities, Don’s objective is to work diligently to assist you in meeting your real estate goals.

If you are considering buying or selling a home or would just like to have additional information about real estate in your area, please don't hesitate to call me at (717) 657-8700, complete my online form, or e-mail me at don@donroth.com.

Bill Gross Just Bought $60-Million Worth of Bonds: Why That's a Big Deal

The name Bill Gross is meaningless to most Americans. For those in finance, it's different. The name is universally known, because Bill Gross is the preeminent bond investor in the country. Specifically, Gross manages the $270-billion PIMCO Total Return Fund Institutional closed-end fund, which is the largest bond fund in the United States.

Gross' actions attract attention. This past week, he attracted considerable attention when it was revealed he had poured $60 million of his personal wealth into bond funds he manages. This $60 million is on top of the $140 million he already has invested in these funds.

In short, Gross in betting in a big way that low interest rates will remain low for quite a while longer.

When you look at the yield performance on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note over the past six months, it's difficult to disagree with Gross' bet. Yields have actually shown more of an inclination to go lower than higher.

The 10-year Treasury note is a good proxy for mortgage rates, particularly the 30-year fixed-rate loan. If you lack access to immediate mortgage information, a quick glance at the yield on the 10-year note (readily accessible at Yahoo! Finance) will give you a good idea to the direction of rates.

As for the actual 30-year fixed-rate loan, it remains subdued. Bankrate.com had the 30-year loan averaging 4.31% for the past week, a slight increase over the previous week. Freddie Mac had it at 4.15%. Over the past day or so, the rate has actually drifted a little lower.

Last week, we cautioned that another strong jobs report – which we got – would pressure rates to rise. Rates rose, but only by a few basis points. That interest rates remain low in the face of improving job prospects (which is indicative of an improving economy) suggests there is little impetuous for interest rates, in general, and mortgage rates, in particular, to rise.

As for our prediction of 5% on the 30-year fixed-rate loan by the end of the year? Anything can happen, but it's a more distant target than it was at the beginning of the year. That said, we still have nearly six month until Dec. 31. By October, the Federal Reserve is expected to have ceased buying Treasury notes and mortgage-backed securities (MBS). What's more, the Fed will likely cease or cut back reinvesting interest and principal from maturing notes and MBS into more notes and MBS.

Basically, this means that the Fed – a key factor to low mortgage rates for the past six years – will be a much smaller player as we progress through the fourth quarter. What this means to the direction of interest rates is anyone's guess. At least we know what Bill Gross' guess is – rates will remain low. But, of course, that's subject to change.

Information provided by Jessica Regan.

Search all Harrisburg PA homes for sale.

When you are buying or selling property in today's Harrisburg PA real estate market, it's important to have confidence in your real estate professional. Don’s commitment as your Harrisburg PA REALTOR® is to provide you with the specialized real estate service you deserve.

When you are an informed buyer or seller, you'll make the best decisions for the most important purchase or sale in your lifetime. That's why Don’s goal is to keep you informed on trends in Harrisburg PA real estate. With property values continuing to rise, real estate is a sound investment for now and for the future.

As a local area expert with knowledge of Harrisburg PA area communities, Don’s objective is to work diligently to assist you in meeting your real estate goals.

If you are considering buying or selling a home or would just like to have additional information about real estate in your area, please don't hesitate to call me at (717) 657-8700, complete my online form, or e-mail me at don@donroth.com.