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Money and Opportunity Costs

by Don Roth

Mortgage lending rates continue to hold multi-decade lows. Could they continue to hold these lows through 2012? We wouldn't be surprised. On the other hand, we don't see much impetus for rates to go much lower either. We ask rhetorically, why procrastinate?

We also see little reason not to borrow to buy. A borrower who takes a 30-year fixed-rate loan at 4 percent is looking at an after-tax cost of 2.875 percent, assuming a 28 percent marginal income tax rate. That same borrower who assumes a 15-year fixed-rate loan at 3 percent is looking at an after-tax cost of 2.16 percent. Both rates are below the annual inflation rate of 3%. It's almost like interest-free money.

What's more, tying a large sum up in owner-occupied real estates means tying up money that could be put to more profitable use. If a buyer puts 20 percent down on a $200,000 home, that means financing $160,000. If a buyer pays cash, he or she no longer has use of that $160,000. That's money that could be used to buy cash-generating investments, such as dividend-paying stocks and rent-generating investment real estate, that yield two or three times the borrowers net interest-rate costs.

In short, tying an excessive amount of money up in real estate when cheap financing is available means enduring a possibly high cost of foregone investment opportunities.

Courtesy of Jessica Regan.

Search all Harrisburg PA homes for sale.

When you are buying or selling property in today's Harrisburg PA real estate market, it's important to have confidence in your real estate professional. Don’s commitment as your Harrisburg PA REALTOR® is to provide you with the specialized real estate service you deserve.

When you are an informed buyer or seller, you'll make the best decisions for the most important purchase or sale in your lifetime. That's why Don’s goal is to keep you informed on trends in Harrisburg PA real estate. With property values continuing to rise, real estate is a sound investment for now and for the future.

As a local area expert with knowledge of Harrisburg PA area communities, Don’s objective is to work diligently to assist you in meeting your real estate goals.

If you are considering buying or selling a home or would just like to have additional information about real estate in your area, please don't hesitate to call me at (717) 657-8700, complete my online form, or e-mail me at don@donroth.com.

Harrisburg PA Mortgage Market Recap - May 28

by Don Roth

As each week passes, the data on housing becomes more encouraging. This past week's data added to the good feelings.

Existing homes sales continue to post monthly gains, rising 3.4 percent in April to an annualized rate of 4.62 million units. If you go back to July 2011, you'll see a trend that is very noticeably up, with monthly sales trending 15-percent higher over the time period.

Perusing the existing home sales data a little deeper, we find many encouraging details. When local market prices are aggregated into the national number, we find the national median price has increased to $177,400 – a 10.1 percent improvement over the national median price in April 2011.

Strengthening home prices are surely the result of easing competition from distressed sales, which now comprise less than a third of total sales. Fewer lower-priced distressed properties in inventory obviously means less downward pricing pressure.

More seller interest is the corollary to less pricing pressure. The NAR reports that inventory increased to a 6.6-month supply in April from 6.3 months in March. A few commentators positioned the inventory increase as a negative, but we don't necessarily agree. Compared to last year, when inventory stood at a 9.1-month supply, 6.6 months is a vast improvement.

Composition of inventory is also worth considering, and the composition of existing-home inventory this year is of higher quality compared to last year. Better pricing invariably brings better homes to market. We’ve see pricier, higher quality homes hit the market over the past six months.

The trend in new home sales and pricing is also encouraging. New home sales increased 3.3 percent in April to an annualized rate of 343,000 units, easily beating the consensus estimate for 330,000 units. Meanwhile, the national median price of a new home rose to $235,700 compared to $234,000 in March and $224,700 in April 2011.

We don't see new-home prices backsliding any time soon. Inventory stands at a mere 146,000 homes, which is a 5.1-month supply at the current sales pace. A dearth of inventory, coupled with a rising-price environment, means that anyone looking to buy a new home should think hard about procrastinating; rising demand plus shrinking inventory always equals higher prices.

That said, a few opinion leaders are less sanguine than we are, at least on prices. New York-based Fitch Ratings weighed in on the subject and said it sees another 7.8% drop in national home prices this year. In our opinion, that's an awfully steep (and unlikely) drop at the national level when you consider the vast improvement in many formerly forlorn markets – Phoenix, Miami, Detroit, Orlando – that are recovering vigorously.Bottom line, we still see no persuasive evidence to think the majority of housing markets aren't recovering and moving forward.

Courtesy of Jessica Regan.

Search all Harrisburg PA homes for sale.

When you are buying or selling property in today's Harrisburg PA real estate market, it's important to have confidence in your real estate professional. Don’s commitment as your Harrisburg PA REALTOR® is to provide you with the specialized real estate service you deserve.

When you are an informed buyer or seller, you'll make the best decisions for the most important purchase or sale in your lifetime. That's why Don’s goal is to keep you informed on trends in Harrisburg PA real estate. With property values continuing to rise, real estate is a sound investment for now and for the future.

As a local area expert with knowledge of Harrisburg PA area communities, Don’s objective is to work diligently to assist you in meeting your real estate goals.

If you are considering buying or selling a home or would just like to have additional information about real estate in your area, please don't hesitate to call me at (717) 657-8700, complete my online form, or e-mail me at don@donroth.com.

Making Sense of Lending Rates

by Don Roth

One question we field as often as any is “What determines lending rates?” The short answer is that many factors – seen and unseen – go into the lending rates borrowers are quoted.

That said, a few factors are more impacting than others. The Federal Reserve is an obvious factor. When the Fed purchases long-term Treasury securities and mortgage-backed securities, it creates demand. Increased Fed demand, in turn, means lenders can offer loans at lower rates than if there was no Fed demand. The Fed, in a sense, creates a market.

The level of risk acceptance or aversion among investors also influences lending rates. When investors are more risk averse, as they have been for the past month, they flock to haven securities – Treasury notes and bonds and other high-quality, low-yield debt. This “flight to safety” pushes mortgage lending rates lower because investors are more willing to lend at lower rates because of demand for higher-quality securities.

The dynamic interaction of supply and demand also works on lending rates. If demand for borrowable funds is brisk, lenders are in a position to quote rates or charge points higher than the national average. If the supply of loan able funds increases, as it's prone to do when investors are more risk accepting, lending rates will drop to entice people to borrow. 

But perhaps the greatest influencing factor is anticipation – each individual's outlook on the market. If more individual lenders believe economic growth and inflation are in the future, rates will rise today in anticipation. The reverse will occur if more lenders see slower growth and lower inflation.

Anticipation also happens to be the most difficult (if not impossible) factor to quantify. What's more, anticipation can be very fickle and can change on a dime; thus making prognosticating very difficult.

Courtesy of Jessica Regan.

Search all Harrisburg PA homes for sale.

When you are buying or selling property in today's Harrisburg PA real estate market, it's important to have confidence in your real estate professional. Don’s commitment as your Harrisburg PA REALTOR® is to provide you with the specialized real estate service you deserve.

When you are an informed buyer or seller, you'll make the best decisions for the most important purchase or sale in your lifetime. That's why Don’s goal is to keep you informed on trends in Harrisburg PA real estate. With property values continuing to rise, real estate is a sound investment for now and for the future.

As a local area expert with knowledge of Harrisburg PA area communities, Don’s objective is to work diligently to assist you in meeting your real estate goals.

If you are considering buying or selling a home or would just like to have additional information about real estate in your area, please don't hesitate to call me at (717) 657-8700, complete my online form, or e-mail me at don@donroth.com.

 

Harrisburg PA Mortgage Market Recap - May 23

by Don Roth

We're at a point in the housing recovery where few people doubt we are actually in the midst of a recovery. Since the beginning of the year, we've been reporting news and data that have generally trended more positively and more optimistically.

Home builders are trending as positively and as optimistically as anyone in the housing sector these days. The NAHB/Wells Fargo sentiment index surged in May to hit a new recovery high of 29. The improved outlook is driven by strengthening consumer sales and buyer traffic, which, in turn, has lead to more housing construction. Housing starts rebounded 2.6 percent in April to 717,000 annualized units, considerably higher than the analysts' consensus forecast for 690,000 units.

While starts are up, foreclosures are down. In fact, foreclosure filings have fallen to their lowest level since July 2007. The five-year low is a product of a death of foreclosure activity in once very active states: Year-over-year foreclosure filings dropped 67 percent in Nevada, 44 percent in Arizona, and 30 percent in California. So much for the surge in distressed properties that was anticipated to swamp the market once the robo-signing imbroglio was put to rest.

Pricing trends also point to a sustained long-term recovery. The national median list price for homes rose by 0.7 percent in April from March to its highest level in nearly a year. 

That said, we're always quick to note that all housing markets are local. When we look at local markets we find that asking prices are up 25 percent in the formerly hard-hit market of Phoenix and 15 percent in the less-hard-hit market of Miami year-over-year.

Look for median asking prices to continue their push higher. Valuation firm Pro Teck reports housing inventory is running at a 6.3-months supply nationally, the lowest level in six years. Falling inventory coupled with rising demand points to one thing – a sustained upward trend in home prices.

The news gets even better when we factor in Fitch Ratings expectations for increased demand for private-label mortgage bond issuance; that is, mortgage bonds not issued by one of the government-sponsored entities (GSEs) – Freddie Mac, Fannie Mae, and Ginnie Mae. The once flourishing private-label market reached $6 trillion in trading activity in 2007. The market is far below that level today, but transactions so far this year have already eclipsed the total for 2011. Fitch sees volume expanding further over the ensuing months. 

Mortgage lending might be the last hurdle to clear in the housing recovery. More security issuance in the private market means less reliance on the GSEs. That means a more vibrant, diversified lending environment and an environment more amenable to meeting more borrower’s needs.

Courtesy of Jessica Regan.

Search all Harrisburg PA homes for sale.

When you are buying or selling property in today's Harrisburg PA real estate market, it's important to have confidence in your real estate professional. Don’s commitment as your Harrisburg PA REALTOR® is to provide you with the specialized real estate service you deserve.

When you are an informed buyer or seller, you'll make the best decisions for the most important purchase or sale in your lifetime. That's why Don’s goal is to keep you informed on trends in Harrisburg PA real estate. With property values continuing to rise, real estate is a sound investment for now and for the future.

As a local area expert with knowledge of Harrisburg PA area communities, Don’s objective is to work diligently to assist you in meeting your real estate goals.

If you are considering buying or selling a home or would just like to have additional information about real estate in your area, please don't hesitate to call me at (717) 657-8700, complete my online form, or e-mail me at don@donroth.com.

10 Common Myths: Short Sale vs Foreclosure

by Don Roth

Thank you to the KCM Blog for this great article on Short Sales vs Foreclosures:

It’s likely you’ve heard the term “short sale” thrown around quite a bit. But what, exactly, is a short sale?

A short sale is when a bank agrees to accept less than the total amount owed on a mortgage to avoid having to foreclose on the property. This is not a new practice; banks have been doing short sales for years. Only recently, due to the current state of the housing market and economy, has this process become a part of the public consciousness.

To be eligible for a short sale you first have to qualify!

To qualify for a short sale:

  • Your house must be worth less than you owe on it.
  • You must be able to prove that you are the victim of a true financial hardship, such as a decrease in wages, job loss, or medical condition that has altered your ability to make the same income as when the loan was originated. Divorce, estate situations, etc… also qualify.

Now that you have a basic understanding of what a short sale is, there are some huge misconceptions when it comes to a short sale vs. a foreclosure. We take the most common myths surrounding both short sales and foreclosures and give a brief explanation. LET’S BUST SOME MYTHS!!

1.) If you let your home go to foreclosure you are done with the situation and you can walk away with a clean slate.  The reality is that this couldn’t be any farther from the truth in most situations. You could end up with an IRS tax liability and still owing the bank money. Let me explain. Please keep in mind that if your property does go into foreclosure you may be liable for the difference of what is owed on the property versus what is sells for at auction, in the form of a deficiency balance! Please note this is state specific and in most states you will be liable for the shortfall, but in some states the bank may not always be able to pursue the debt. Check your state law as it varies widely from state to state.

Here is an example of how a deficiency balance works 

If you owe $200,000 on the property and it sells at auction for $150,000, you could be liable for the $50,000 difference if your state law allows it.

Not only could you be liable for the difference to the bank, but in some situations you could also be liable to the IRS! Although there are exemptions (mostly for principle residences) under the Mortgage Debt Forgiveness Act, there are times when you could be taxed on both a short sale and a foreclosure, even in a principle residence situation. Since the tax code on this is a little complicated and I am not a CPA, I advise always talking to a CPA when in this situation as you are weighing your options. Hard to believe?  Well, believe it or not, the IRS counts the difference between the sale and the charged off debt as a “gain” on your taxes. That’s right-you lost money and it’s counted as a gain! (I didn’t make that rule, that’s a wonderful brainchild of the IRS). Banks and the IRS can go as far as attaching your wages. Not to mention if you let your home go to foreclosure you will have that on your credit, as well.

Guess What?  A short sale can alleviate your liability to the bank, in most situations. There are also exceptions to this, but in most cases banks are releasing homeowners from the deficiency balance on a short sale.

2.) There are no options to avoid foreclosure. Now more than ever, there are options to avoid foreclosure. Besides a short sale, loan modifications along with deed in lieu are also examples of the many options. In most cases (but not all) a short sale is the best option. Either way, there are more options today than there have ever been to avoid foreclosure.

3.) Banks do not want to participate in a short sale, or, it is too hard to qualify for a short sale. Banks would rather perform a short sale than a foreclosure any day. A foreclosure takes a long time and creates a huge expense for the banks; a short sale saves both time and money. Banks have more foreclosure inventory than ever before, and certainly do not want any more. Banks more than ever welcome short sales. Qualifying for a short sale is easier than you think, you need to have a true financial hardship, or a change in your finances and your house has to be worth less than what you owe on it. Not only do consumers, but banks also now have government incentive to participate in short sales.

4.) Short sales are not that common. At this present time, short sales range from 10-50 % of sales in various markets and it is predicted that in 2012 we will have more short sales than any other year, to date. Due to economic changes in the last few years, this is something that is affecting millions of Americans. Short sales are in every market, and are not just limited to any particular income class. This has affected everyone from all facets of life. A short sale should be looked at as a helpful tool, not a negative stigma. That is why the government is offering programs that actually pay consumers to participate in short sales. It is not just affecting one community; it is affecting communities and consumers across the nation.

5.) The short sale process is too difficult and they often get denied. Though the short sale process is time consuming; it is not as difficult as the media would have you believe. The problem is that most short sales are denied because of a misunderstanding of the process.  It is true that if the short sale process is not followed correctly there is a good chance of getting denied. An experienced agent knows how to avoid this. Short sales require a lot of experience, and a special skill set. If you are looking to go the option of a short sale make sure your agent is skilled and experienced in this area.

6.) Short sales will cost me money out of pocket.  A short sale should not cost you any out of pocket money. In fact, you could get between $3000-up to $30,000 to participate in a short sale. In many ways, a short sale may put you in a better financial position than prior to the short sale. Almost every short sale program now has some type of financial incentive for the home owner, as long as it is a principle residence, and we are even seeing relocation money being paid on some investment/second homes. As a seller of a property you should never have to pay for any short sale cost upfront to any professional service. Realtors charge a commission that is paid for by the bank. In most communities there are also non-profits and HUD counselors who can help you with foreclosure prevention options for free. The only potential cost you could incur is if the bank would not release you from a deficiency balance in the short sale, which is happening less and less now.

7.) If I am behind on my payments, I can perform a short sale any time. The farther you get behind on your payments, the harder it is to get a short sale approved. The closer a property gets to a foreclosure the harder it is to convince the bank to perform a short sale. As they get closer to a foreclosure sale more money is spent, thus deterring them from doing a short sale. If you think you need to perform a short sale, time is of the essence; the sooner you start the process, the better. Waiting too long can trigger the ramifications of a foreclosure, losing the ability to do a short sale as a viable option.

8.) I have already been sent a foreclosure notice so I can’t perform a short sale. For the most part just because you received a foreclosure notice or notice of default it does not mean that you do not have time to perform a short sale. The timeline and specifics do vary from state to state, but having done short sales all over the country, I have seen banks postpone a foreclosure to work a short sale option as close as 30 days prior to the scheduled foreclosure auction, but the longer you wait the less chance you have. If you have received a legal foreclosure notice, please reach out to a professional right away. The longer you wait, and the closer you get to foreclosure, the fewer options you have. If you have received a notice to foreclose this means the bank is filing paperwork and starting the process to take legal action to repossess the house. You still have time at this point to prevent foreclosure, but do not hesitate! The closer you get to the foreclosure date the harder it becomes to negotiate with the bank for whichever option you choose.

9.) I was denied for a loan modification, so I know I will get denied for a short sale.  Short sales and loan modifications are handled by two separate departments at the bank. These processes are totally different in approval and denial. If you got denied for a modification you can still apply for a short sale; in some cases you can get a short sale approved faster than a loan modification, as some loan modifications are denied because they cannot reduce the loan low enough based on the  consumers income.

10.) If I go through a short sale I cannot buy another house for a long time. The time to buy another house depends on your entire credit picture and can vary from 12-24 months. There are even a few FHA programs that allow for a purchase sooner than that. I have worked with clients who went through a short sale and bought another house in less than 12 months.

These are just a few of the common myths surrounding short sales and foreclosure. With the options available today, no homeowner should ever have to go through foreclosure, and hopefully this information can help a few more homeowners think twice before walking away from their home not realizing the possible long term ramifications a foreclosure can have.

It Was Only a Matter of Time

by Don Roth

The financial term “catching a falling knife” refers to buying into a market where prices are falling and then continue to fall after buying. There is a reproaching quality to the term, similar to someone wagging a finger and shaking a head.

A recent Reuters article had that reproaching quality. The article pointed out that more than one million Americans who had taken out a mortgage in the past two years are now underwater: The implicit lesson being, according to Reuters, that they should have waited and that they should have put more money down.

The reality is that it's impossible to call a market bottom, but in the long term it's nearly always better to buy into a market after a precipitous drop than after a precipitous rise. In other words, whoever bought or refinanced a house over the past two year has made a smart decision that will work out to his or her advantage over the next five years. 

The good thing about real estate is that it's nearly always a long-term investment. Better yet, it's a long-term investment that doesn't continually bombard and upset owners with price updates. That means Reuters attempt to alarm likely fell on deaf ears, and that, too, is a good thing.

Courtesy of Jessica Regan.

Search all Harrisburg PA homes for sale.

When you are buying or selling property in today's Harrisburg PA real estate market, it's important to have confidence in your real estate professional. Don’s commitment as your Harrisburg PA REALTOR® is to provide you with the specialized real estate service you deserve.

When you are an informed buyer or seller, you'll make the best decisions for the most important purchase or sale in your lifetime. That's why Don’s goal is to keep you informed on trends in Harrisburg PA real estate. With property values continuing to rise, real estate is a sound investment for now and for the future.

As a local area expert with knowledge of Harrisburg PA area communities, Don’s objective is to work diligently to assist you in meeting your real estate goals.

If you are considering buying or selling a home or would just like to have additional information about real estate in your area, please don't hesitate to call me at (717) 657-8700, complete my online form, or e-mail me at don@donroth.com.

Harrisburg PA Mortgage Market Recap - May 7

by Don Roth

Once again we are compelled to lead with home prices. That's actually a good thing, because home prices are increasingly on the rise and increasingly portend higher prices.

The latest pricing data, from Trulia, show that asking prices rose nationally 1.9 percent in the three-month moving average from February to April. When you look at monthly comparisons, asking prices were up 0.5 percent from March to April.

Of course, asking isn't getting – an asking price isn't the sales price. But we all know that we set prices rationally. It's important not to waste time on an unrealistic asking price. In other words, Trulia's data suggests that prices are rising, and rising strongly, in many markets. This, in turn, suggests that we should expect higher reported sales prices from S&P/Case-Shiller and Corelogic in the near future.

Seeing a rising national asking price is nice, but it's really meaningless to any particular market. The price trend in Denver has no bearing on the price trend in Philadelphia or vice versa. The same can be said for most combinations of any two markets.

What we find interesting, though, is the price trends in the most hardest hit areas – such as Phoenix and Miami – are posting double-digit increases. If we've said it once, we've said it numerous times over the past couple years: markets clear. In other words, prices fall to reach a level where they draw sufficient interest to clear inventory. Once inventory clears, prices again start moving higher.

Clearing markets is painful but salutary, and maybe not as painful as our expectations lead us to believe. We mentioned a couple weeks ago what turned out to be the non-issue of an explosion in option ARM defaults that were expected to sink the market. That never occurred.

The foreclosure overhang that everyone has been talking about for the past six months also appears to be a non-issue. CNBC reports that the number of homes entering foreclosure is up for April, but is still down more than 30 percent from a year ago.

Earlier this year, most financial outlets were lamenting impending doom once banks started foreclosing in earnest and dumping properties on the market. Lost in all the rhetoric was the fact that bankers are rational. Short sales, deeds-in-lieu, re-negotiation make a difference, and they've been on the rise. Bankers don't want to upset markets, especially through mass REO sales.

The lesson here is that it's rarely the anticipated that upsets market; it's mostly the unanticipated. The distressed property overhang has been anticipated and is being dealt with accordingly and rationally.

What we anticipate, and what we would like to see at this point are more accommodating lending standards. The current overly strict standards is the number one hindrance to the recovery in our opinion. To be sure, mortgage lending rates remain at historical lows, and that's good for those able to get the rate. But what we really need are rates and mortgage products to accommodate all borrowers needs, not just those with 800 FICO scores.

Courtesy of Jessica Regan.

Search all Harrisburg PA homes for sale.

When you are buying or selling property in today's Harrisburg PA real estate market, it's important to have confidence in your real estate professional. Don’s commitment as your Harrisburg PA REALTOR® is to provide you with the specialized real estate service you deserve.

When you are an informed buyer or seller, you'll make the best decisions for the most important purchase or sale in your lifetime. That's why Don’s goal is to keep you informed on trends in Harrisburg PA real estate. With property values continuing to rise, real estate is a sound investment for now and for the future.

As a local area expert with knowledge of Harrisburg PA area communities, Don’s objective is to work diligently to assist you in meeting your real estate goals.

If you are considering buying or selling a home or would just like to have additional information about real estate in your area, please don't hesitate to call me at (717) 657-8700, complete my online form, or e-mail me at don@donroth.com.

The results are in and there is a great improvement in Harrisburg PA real estate sales for the first quarter of 2012 increased by 18.1% compared to the first quarter of 2011 according to the Central Penn Multi List. The area covered by the Multi List is the greater Harrisburg including all of Dauphin, Cumberland and Perry counties harrisburg pa real estateand portions of York, Lancaster and Lebanon counties. AND the number of homes sold, not settled, has increased by 20% since the end of 2011.

Not all categories are positive as of today. The days on market category, homes that have sold but not taking into consideration homes that are still on the market or are no longer for sale still is increasing, but at a substantially slower pace than in previous quarters. Also, the average sales price has declined again but the percentage decrease is slowing considerably.

The bottom line is that the Harrisburg PA real estate market is improving faster than many would have expected just a few months ago and I anticipate that all price points will see positive results moving throughout the rest of 2012. We still see plenty of inventory but in the price ranges under $225,000 there is more of a balanced (six months or less) inventory levels and I anticipate that the other price categories to improve although it will be a slower process. With a good supply of inventory and still extremely attractive mortgage interest rates I am anticipating continued improvement in the real estate market locally.

Search all Harrisburg PA homes for sale.

When you are buying or selling property in today's Harrisburg PA real estate market, it's important to have confidence in your real estate professional. Don’s commitment as your Harrisburg PA REALTOR® is to provide you with the specialized real estate service you deserve.

When you are an informed buyer or seller, you'll make the best decisions for the most important purchase or sale in your lifetime. That's why Don’s goal is to keep you informed on trends in Harrisburg PA real estate. With property values continuing to rise, real estate is a sound investment for now and for the future.

As a local area expert with knowledge of Harrisburg PA area communities, Don’s objective is to work diligently to assist you in meeting your real estate goals.

If you are considering buying or selling a home or would just like to have additional information about real estate in your area, please don't hesitate to call me at (717) 657-8700, complete my online form, or e-mail me at don@donroth.com.

Encouraging News for the Average Contrarian

by Don Roth

Since the bursting of the housing bubble in 2008, homeownership has been declining, and the pace of declined appears to have accelerated in the past year. Gallup, the people who provide an array of polls and surveys, finds that only 62 percent of Americans it surveyed owned a home compared to 68 percent in 2011.

This is actually good news, because it points to pent up demand when you consider that the historical homeownership rate ranges between 65 percent and 66 percent.

We're aware of many media reports that point to a change of culture in the housing market; that is, a change toward a renting culture from a buying one. We don't buy it, at least not for the long term. Ask anyone if he or she would prefer to live in a neighborhood of renters or owners. Most, we assure you, prefer owners.

Many people were spooked by the dramatic price declines that occurred over the past four years, so it's likely that many people when questioned on homeownership were speaking more out of fear than knowledge. Now that it appears that prices have stabilized, we expect more of these people to regain their bearings and consider what they really want – and that's to buy a home and to live in a neighborhood of homeowners.

As we mentioned above, prices matter – and today's low home prices simply won't stay this low indefinitely. After a couple more months of favorable pricing data, that fact will resonate with more prospective buyers.

Courtesy of Jessica Regan.

Search all Harrisburg PA homes for sale.

When you are buying or selling property in today's Harrisburg PA real estate market, it's important to have confidence in your real estate professional. Don’s commitment as your Harrisburg PA REALTOR® is to provide you with the specialized real estate service you deserve.

When you are an informed buyer or seller, you'll make the best decisions for the most important purchase or sale in your lifetime. That's why Don’s goal is to keep you informed on trends in Harrisburg PA real estate. With property values continuing to rise, real estate is a sound investment for now and for the future.

As a local area expert with knowledge of Harrisburg PA area communities, Don’s objective is to work diligently to assist you in meeting your real estate goals.

If you are considering buying or selling a home or would just like to have additional information about real estate in your area, please don't hesitate to call me at (717) 657-8700, complete my online form, or e-mail me at don@donroth.com.

Harrisburg PA Mortgage Market Recap - April 30

by Don Roth

Prices always make news, as well they should. A price is an important factor in determining loan amount and equity position. Price determines whether someone buys, sells, or holds. You could say that price is everything.

With that thought in mind, home prices have been volatile in 2012, which has lead to volatile sales data. But though prices have been volatile, they have been trending higher. S&P/Case-Shiller's 20-city composite home price index shows prices increased 0.2 percent in February compared to January.

Though the S&P/Case-Shiller index is the most monitored index, it's a little stale, being two months in arrears. We were more interested in contemporary price data released by Zillow, which show home values were up 0.5 percent in its 30-market index. Zillow believes 19 of the markets it follows have either hit bottom or are expected to hit bottom by the end of the year. Zillow chief economist Stan Humphries advises, "For people who have been waiting to time their home purchase close to market bottom, it’s time to start shopping.

”Not to pat ourselves too hard on the back, but we've been offering similar advice for the past six months. Now, no one can precisely call a bottom, but you can get a “vibe” in your market through experience and information. More of the vibes and much of the information is turning positive in many local markets. To be sure, bad news can still be found, but if you wait for nothing but good news, the bottom will have long been gone.

Existing home sales prove that the news still isn't all good. Sales for March came in softer than expected, posting at 4.48 million annualized units, a 2.6 percent dip from February. The good news is that market dynamics appear to be shifting from mostly low-end homes to higher-end ones: the median national home price rose a strong 4.6 percent to $163,800.

As for new homes sales, the news was decidedly good. New home sales posted a better-than-expected 328,000 annualized units in March, after being revised strongly upward to 353,000 units in February. The national median sales price dipped 1 percent, to $234,500, in March, but we'd be surprised not to see a price rebound in April, because of a dearth of new homes. In fact, the supply of unsold new homes fell to just 144,000 in March – the fewest on record dating to 1963.

Mortgage rates, meanwhile, continue to skim along the bottom, though they're showing no inclination to move meaningfully lower. Again, we can't stress enough the risk/reward paradigm in the mortgage lending market: Even after a spat of bad economic news in Europe, rates hardly moved. This suggests to us that waiting for still lower rates means incurring a great deal of risk for little reward.

Courtesy of Jessica Regan.

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