Real Estate Information Archive

Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen again addressed the question of the Fed and interest rates earlier this week. This go around Yellen suggested that an interest-rate hike was in the cards for later this year. We say “suggested,” because as usual Yellen made any rate hike conditional: When the economy can support a rate hike, in the Fed's opinion, then we will see a rate hike.

To be sure, a rate hike could be in the cards (though we remain skeptical), but it really doesn't matter. Interest rates have been rising with or without the Fed's imprimatur.

The yield on the very influential 10-year U.S. Treasury note seems intent on hanging above 2.35%. This, after it was hanging around 1.9% as recently as April. Mortgage rates, in turn, also seem intent on hanging around at a higher level. The 30-year fixed-rate loan continues to creep progressively higher. It's now comfortably above 4%. The 15-year fixed-rate loan has followed a similar trajectory. As the yield on the 10-year note goes, so goes longer-term mortgage rates.

The fact is that mortgages rates have moved higher without any prompting by the Fed. This point is worth underscoring. Many borrowers believe low mortgage rates will remain as long as the Fed continues to procrastinate on its first rate hike in nearly a decade. This is untrue. Interest rates in general and mortgage rates in particular can rise without any input from the Fed, as we've seen in recent months.

Nevertheless, many borrowers believe time is on their side. Until the Fed announces a rate hike, low rates are here to stay. That's a dangerous mindset, because there is nothing to stop credit markets from supplanting low interest rates with high interest rates. What's more, there is nothing to stop the market supplanting rates much quicker than most people expect.

Information provided by Jessica Regan.

Search all Harrisburg PA homes for sale.

When you are buying or selling property in today's Harrisburg PA real estate market, it's important to have confidence in your real estate professional. Don’s commitment as your Harrisburg PA REALTOR® is to provide you with the specialized real estate service you deserve.

When you are an informed buyer or seller, you'll make the best decisions for the most important purchase or sale in your lifetime. That's why Don’s goal is to keep you informed on trends in Harrisburg PA real estate. With property values continuing to rise, real estate is a sound investment for now and for the future.

As a local area expert with knowledge of Harrisburg PA area communities, Don’s objective is to work diligently to assist you in meeting your real estate goals.

If you are considering buying or selling a home or would just like to have additional information about real estate in your area, please don't hesitate to call me at (717) 657-8700, complete my online form, or e-mail me at don@donroth.com.

The drop in mortgage rates has fueled a surge in refinance activity. Last week, the Mortgage Bankers Association reported that refinances were up 11% week over week. When the MBA reports on this week's activity (next week), we expect to see continued strong demand.

It's been a different story for purchase activity. Last week, the MBA's purchase index was down 1%. Year over year, the purchase index is down 4%. This is not good news, especially when you consider that cash sales are dropping as a percentage of overall sales, and will likely continue to do so.

Now, we get the report that home builder sentiment is dropping too. The National Association of Home Builders' (NAHB) sentiment index dropped to 54 in October, which is a considerable decline from the 59 posted in September. Home builders, like a lot of other people, are feeling less sure of themselves these days. We hope the drop is a one-off reading, but time will tell.

Falling interest rates, as we note above, are an indicator of falling confidence and rising risk aversion. This is why we don't get terribly excited when rates continually fall. To be sure, falling rates are good for refinance business, but for the overall health of housing and mortgage lending, we need to see a pick up in purchase activity. For that to occur, we need more confidence and less risk aversion. This, we believe, will be reflected in rising interest rates.

So if we cheer-lead on occasion for rising rates, it's not because we favor rising financing costs, it's because we favor more business and consumer confidence and more economic growth.

Information provided by Jessica Regan.

Search all Harrisburg PA homes for sale.

When you are buying or selling property in today's Harrisburg PA real estate market, it's important to have confidence in your real estate professional. Don’s commitment as your Harrisburg PA REALTOR® is to provide you with the specialized real estate service you deserve.

When you are an informed buyer or seller, you'll make the best decisions for the most important purchase or sale in your lifetime. That's why Don’s goal is to keep you informed on trends in Harrisburg PA real estate. With property values continuing to rise, real estate is a sound investment for now and for the future.

As a local area expert with knowledge of Harrisburg PA area communities, Don’s objective is to work diligently to assist you in meeting your real estate goals.

If you are considering buying or selling a home or would just like to have additional information about real estate in your area, please don't hesitate to call me at (717) 657-8700, complete my online form, or e-mail me at don@donroth.com.

This is really quite extraordinary.

We have strong job growth, accelerating economic growth, the Federal Reserve withdrawing from the Treasury debt and mortgage-backed security markets, and yet mortgage rates continue to fall. Bankrate.com's latest survey shows that the national average on the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage is as low as it has been in the past year. Freddie Mac's survey shows the 30-year loan at a similar low.

We have to confess that we've been wrong on the direction of interest rates this year. But we've been right on the variables that should have lead to higher interest rates: more job growth, more economic growth, less Federal Reserve support. When these variables are factored in, interest rates are supposed to trend higher. Turmoil in Russia and Ukraine could be serving as a counterweight, but these events alone shouldn't keep rates in check.

Low consumer-price inflation – here and in most of the developed world – is likely the overriding variable. Here in the States, we have the potential for an inflation surge, but most of the developed world doesn't. Economies are so intertwined these days that low inflation and low growth in less robust economies could very well be holding inflation in check in the United States.

As for how low mortgage rates can go? We didn't think we had snowballs chance in summer of discussing 4% on the 30-year loan deep into August. But now sub-4% on the 30-year loan is entirely plausible.

Information provided by Jessica Regan.

Search all Harrisburg PA homes for sale.

When you are buying or selling property in today's Harrisburg PA real estate market, it's important to have confidence in your real estate professional. Don’s commitment as your Harrisburg PA REALTOR® is to provide you with the specialized real estate service you deserve.

When you are an informed buyer or seller, you'll make the best decisions for the most important purchase or sale in your lifetime. That's why Don’s goal is to keep you informed on trends in Harrisburg PA real estate. With property values continuing to rise, real estate is a sound investment for now and for the future.

As a local area expert with knowledge of Harrisburg PA area communities, Don’s objective is to work diligently to assist you in meeting your real estate goals.

If you are considering buying or selling a home or would just like to have additional information about real estate in your area, please don't hesitate to call me at (717) 657-8700, complete my online form, or e-mail me at don@donroth.com.

Speaking of trends, we'd be remiss not to mention the trend in mortgage rates, which has been rising over the past month. Indeed, the rates on some mortgage products are up over 25 basis points. So the obvious question is, will the trend continue?

Opinions are mixed, but they tend to lean toward the trend reversing. Some analysts believe that impending government spending cuts and tax increases, which could occur in 2013, will further slow economic growth. That means money will leave riskier investments like stocks and head for haven investments like U.S. Treasury securities. The demand for these securities, in turn, will lead to lower mortgage rates.

Then again, maybe the economy isn't as bad as many economists believe. Housing has always been a key component in economic growth, and the outlook for housing is pretty darn good these days. In fact, Fannie Mae's Economic & Strategic Research Group believes that increases in residential construction will add 0.2 percentage points to gross domestic product this year. Housing construction and home sales have a cascading effect, producing additional demand for home furnishings and many other retail products and services.

The rising trend in mortgage rates might be unsustainable, but even if rates reverse course, recent history suggests they aren't going to reverse much lower. Therefore, it's important to remind our home-purchase clients that rates have risen, but any savings achieved by waiting for a reversal could be offset by a higher purchase price.

Courtesy of Jessica Regan.

Search all Harrisburg PA homes for sale.

When you are buying or selling property in today's Harrisburg PA real estate market, it's important to have confidence in your real estate professional. Don’s commitment as your Harrisburg PA REALTOR® is to provide you with the specialized real estate service you deserve.

When you are an informed buyer or seller, you'll make the best decisions for the most important purchase or sale in your lifetime. That's why Don’s goal is to keep you informed on trends in Harrisburg PA real estate. With property values continuing to rise, real estate is a sound investment for now and for the future.

As a local area expert with knowledge of Harrisburg PA area communities, Don’s objective is to work diligently to assist you in meeting your real estate goals.

If you are considering buying or selling a home or would just like to have additional information about real estate in your area, please don't hesitate to call me at (717) 657-8700, complete my online form, or e-mail me at don@donroth.com.

Last week, we reported on the Federal Reserve's renewed commitment to hold long-term rates low through the end of the year, and likely through 2012. So far, so good: mortgage lending rates once again hit a new all-time low.

You'd think that mortgage activity would be booming when the 30-year fixed-rate loan is consistently quoted below 4 percent. But that's not really the case. The mortgage lending business is good, but should be better. The market, especially for refinances, is still being held in check by negative equity and what is, in our opinion, excessively strict underwriting standards.

That said, the real issue isn't the cost of money, but the rise of risk aversion. Underwriting standards are a manifestation of risk: high risk aversion means higher underwriting standards, low risk aversions means the opposite.

In other words, we don't expect lower interest rates to spur additional lending demand. We see additional gains being spurred by a fall in risk aversion. The willingness to engage in riskier transactions, and buying a house is considered a riskier transaction because of its sheer size, is key. Risk aversion is positively correlated with uncertainty, and markets are suffering from a high level of uncertainty these days due to anemic economic and job growth.

We don't expect the housing market to back track, but for it to ratchet meaningfully forward, the underbrush of uncertainty must be swept away.

Search all Harrisburg PA homes for sale.

When you are buying or selling property in today's Harrisburg PA real estate market, it's important to have confidence in your real estate professional. Don’s commitment as your Harrisburg PA REALTOR® is to provide you with the specialized real estate service you deserve.

When you are an informed buyer or seller, you'll make the best decisions for the most important purchase or sale in your lifetime. That's why Don’s goal is to keep you informed on trends in Harrisburg PA real estate. With property values continuing to rise, real estate is a sound investment for now and for the future.

As a local area expert with knowledge of Harrisburg PA area communities, Don’s objective is to work diligently to assist you in meeting your real estate goals.

If you are considering buying or selling a home or would just like to have additional information about real estate in your area, please don't hesitate to call me at (717) 657-8700, complete my online form, or e-mail me at don@donroth.com.

Mortgage lending rates continue to hold multi-decade lows. Could they continue to hold these lows through 2012? We wouldn't be surprised. On the other hand, we don't see much impetus for rates to go much lower either. We ask rhetorically, why procrastinate?

We also see little reason not to borrow to buy. A borrower who takes a 30-year fixed-rate loan at 4 percent is looking at an after-tax cost of 2.875 percent, assuming a 28 percent marginal income tax rate. That same borrower who assumes a 15-year fixed-rate loan at 3 percent is looking at an after-tax cost of 2.16 percent. Both rates are below the annual inflation rate of 3%. It's almost like interest-free money.

What's more, tying a large sum up in owner-occupied real estates means tying up money that could be put to more profitable use. If a buyer puts 20 percent down on a $200,000 home, that means financing $160,000. If a buyer pays cash, he or she no longer has use of that $160,000. That's money that could be used to buy cash-generating investments, such as dividend-paying stocks and rent-generating investment real estate, that yield two or three times the borrowers net interest-rate costs.

In short, tying an excessive amount of money up in real estate when cheap financing is available means enduring a possibly high cost of foregone investment opportunities.

Courtesy of Jessica Regan.

Search all Harrisburg PA homes for sale.

When you are buying or selling property in today's Harrisburg PA real estate market, it's important to have confidence in your real estate professional. Don’s commitment as your Harrisburg PA REALTOR® is to provide you with the specialized real estate service you deserve.

When you are an informed buyer or seller, you'll make the best decisions for the most important purchase or sale in your lifetime. That's why Don’s goal is to keep you informed on trends in Harrisburg PA real estate. With property values continuing to rise, real estate is a sound investment for now and for the future.

As a local area expert with knowledge of Harrisburg PA area communities, Don’s objective is to work diligently to assist you in meeting your real estate goals.

If you are considering buying or selling a home or would just like to have additional information about real estate in your area, please don't hesitate to call me at (717) 657-8700, complete my online form, or e-mail me at don@donroth.com.

The housing statistics for the suburban Harrisburg, Pennsylvania are in and the results show that there is still some decline in real estate sales in the area. The number of homes sold in 2009 declined by 20% compared to the same period in 2008, and the area saw a decrease in the average sales price of 7% in the same period. The sales results cover all of Dauphin (except Harrisburg), Cumberland and Perry Counties and portions of Lancaster, Lebanon and York Counties. These results continue the trend the area experienced for the last half of 2008.

But there is good news on the horizon since the number of pending sales (sold although not yet settled) increased from December 2008 to the end of January 2009 by approximately 9%. And many of us are seeing increased buyer activity and additional properly priced homes come onto the market. In addition, there is some positive news out of Washington to assist both home buyers and sellers for 2009. In November 2008, The National Association of Realtors® put forth a recommendation that the $7500 tax credit for first time home buyers be expanded to all home buyers and that the tax credit be replaced with just a plain credit, meaning that there would not be any repayment vehicle attached for any buyer. This idea has taken form in Washington and it has a good chance of becoming part of the President’s Stimulus Package working its way through Congress. And there also appears that Congress may look favorably on crafting a mortgage program where mortgage rates could go as low as 4 or 4 1/2% this year.

So when looking into the future I see better times ahead for both home buyers and home sellers. It will not happen overnight but the landscape is looking much brighter for people that are looking into real estate. STAY TUNED.

The actions by the Federal Reserve this week have benefitted current homeowners and buyers that are looking to purchase a new home. Normally, the action by the Fed does not impact residential mortgage rates since a majority of those rates are established by the open market and private investors. This time the mortgage rates have dropped significantly in the Greater Harrisburg market, and in some cases 30 year fixed rates are now below 5% and with NO POINTS. What does that mean to the a current homeowner? The difference between a 5% and 6% mortgage of $100,000 is $63.00 less per month or $756.00 a year and naturally if your balance is more than $100,000, the savings are greater to you. And if you have been considering the purchase of a home and selling yours, the savings can be just as great on that purchase.

Why have the mortgage rates dropped so far? Well, the impact of the economic slowdown has not spared Central Pennsylvania, but the impact has not been as severe as in many areas of the country, but there has been a slowdown. Home sales in numbers in the Harrisburg suburbs of Dauphin and Cumberland counties for the month of November 2008 compared to November 2007 are down by 25% and the average sales price is lower by 5% over the same comparative period of time. Not good but nowhere near the figures of some regions of the country.

But I am optimistic going forward and you ask WHY? The Greater Harrisburg real estate market for the last 30 years has not seen the wild fluctuations in value, up or down, that many localities have experienced, with the exception of 2005. And I anticipate that we will return to normal valuation ranges very shortly – within six months. How does that impact you as a buyer or seller? Pricing in the market has slowed so there are deals to be had, and I do not anticipate the interest rate environment to increase within that time frame at a minimum so you are going to have extremely attractive interest rates, which in turn has a very positive impact on monthly housing costs. No one was able to time the market and intentionally find the bottom of a market, real estate costs or interest rates, so be on the lookout for value. If you need any real estate or interest rate information, please contact me. Have a happy Holiday season and a prosperous New Year.