Real Estate Information Archive

This lead in could be filed under “dog bites man,” because it's something most of us already know.

We are referring to recent data from the National Association of Realtors that show the time to sell a home is shrinking. According to the NAR, the time to sell for traditional sellers is back within historic norms: the median time a home was listed fell to 69 days in July, down from 98 days a year earlier.

Of course, national numbers often hold little meaning to any particular local market. In fact, the NAR's data range from one-third of the homes were listed for less than a month, while one in five homes was listed for at least six months. The positive takeaway is that more homes in more markets are selling at a quicker pace. What's more, that pace appears to be accelerating.

The price of many homes listed for sale is also accelerating. Clear Capital reports that home prices are up 2.9% year over year in August. Clear Capital cites fewer REO properties coming to market due to new borrower-friendly legislation and the $25 billion lenders' settlement with the federal government.

That's really only part of the story, though, and gives short sales the short shrift, because many lenders are simply finding it more remunerative to engage in short sales than foreclosure and REO sales.

While we are on the subject of sales and prices, Trulia reports that national asking prices on for-sale homes, which precede actual sales prices by two or more months, increased 2.3% year over year in August. Gains were widespread, with 68 of the 100 largest metropolitan areas Trulia follows reporting price increases.

Trulia's data are particularly encouraging, because they are a leading indicator of future home sales (where we are going is much more important than where we've been). Therefore, we would be surprised if home-price gains and the housing recovery were not to persist into fall.

That said, lending could be the monkey wrench that grinds the recovery gears to a halt. Participation is the issue, and it is akin to the observation “water, water everywhere, but not a drop to drink.” Rates are low, but not enough borrowers are able to take advantage of them.

We've mentioned many times over the past year that the issue isn't low lending rates at this point: it's a dearth of borrower-buyers. If only the same people can access credit at these low rates, these low rates become meaningless. A less restrictive lending environment would do much more to accelerate the recovery than historic low rates.

Courtesy of Jessica Regan.

Search all Harrisburg PA homes for sale.

When you are buying or selling property in today's Harrisburg PA real estate market, it's important to have confidence in your real estate professional. Don’s commitment as your Harrisburg PA REALTOR® is to provide you with the specialized real estate service you deserve.

When you are an informed buyer or seller, you'll make the best decisions for the most important purchase or sale in your lifetime. That's why Don’s goal is to keep you informed on trends in Harrisburg PA real estate. With property values continuing to rise, real estate is a sound investment for now and for the future.

As a local area expert with knowledge of Harrisburg PA area communities, Don’s objective is to work diligently to assist you in meeting your real estate goals.

If you are considering buying or selling a home or would just like to have additional information about real estate in your area, please don't hesitate to call me at (717) 657-8700, complete my online form, or e-mail me at don@donroth.com.

There is an old investing bromide that goes “the trend is your friend,” which means a directional market can lead to riches.

The trend in home prices is surely our friend. Indeed, the S&P/Case-Shiller home price index points to a trend that is becoming friendlier by the month. Case-Shiller's data show that home prices gained 0.9 percent month over month for June, posting a fifth-consecutive monthly gain. Just as important, price increases were widespread, with 18 of the 20 metropolitan regions Case-Shiller follows moving higher.

Most of the media commentary on the Case-Shiller data were positive. Of course, there were the usual caveats on the negative impact shadow inventory and distressed properties could still have (lest anyone get too confident). But these caveats are falling on deafer ears, and for good reason: distressed properties are also posting price increases.

RealtyTrac reports the average price of a foreclosure sold in the second quarter of 2012 rose 7 percent compared to the year-ago quarter. Foreclosure-related sales accounted for 23 percent of all home sales in the quarter, up 19 percent from last year. At the same time, the number of foreclosures and REOs coming to market declined 22 percent year over year.

In short, we have rising foreclosure prices, greater buyer interest in foreclosures, and fewer foreclosures hitting the market. These are all positives. If this trend continues, the shadow inventory will have proven to be a case of whistling past the graveyard: a little disconcerting, but harmless nonetheless.

We see no reason for the price trend to end. Existing homes sales are gaining momentum. The pending home sales index rose 2.4 percent in July compared to June. Year over year, the index is up 12.4 percent.

For all the price and sales gains recorded this year, homes still remain a value. Rental prices have kept pace with home price gains. In fact, price-to-rent ratios are where they were back in the late 1990s. Relatively speaking, a home is still a bargain.

But the bargain won't last forever, and maybe not even through 2013. The NAR projects existing home sales will rise 8-to-9 percent this year, followed by another 7-to-8 percent rise in 2013.

Today's mortgage-rate bargains also won't last forever. Yes, rates dropped close to recent lows this past week, but the drop occurred early in the week. As the week progressed, mortgage rates progressed higher after estimates of second-quarter 2012 gross domestic product were raised by the Commerce Department. In addition, the Federal Reserve's Beige Book showed the economy continued to expand in July and part of August.

When the economy kicks into gear so will loan demand, as will the price of loans – interest rates.

Courtesy of Jessica Regan.

Search all Harrisburg PA homes for sale.

When you are buying or selling property in today's Harrisburg PA real estate market, it's important to have confidence in your real estate professional. Don’s commitment as your Harrisburg PA REALTOR® is to provide you with the specialized real estate service you deserve.

When you are an informed buyer or seller, you'll make the best decisions for the most important purchase or sale in your lifetime. That's why Don’s goal is to keep you informed on trends in Harrisburg PA real estate. With property values continuing to rise, real estate is a sound investment for now and for the future.

As a local area expert with knowledge of Harrisburg PA area communities, Don’s objective is to work diligently to assist you in meeting your real estate goals.

If you are considering buying or selling a home or would just like to have additional information about real estate in your area, please don't hesitate to call me at (717) 657-8700, complete my online form, or e-mail me at don@donroth.com.

Existing home sales gained traction in July, moving up 2.3 percent to 4.47 million units annualized, to partially reverse a 5.4-percent decline in June. The monthly existing home sales trend has been choppy for most of 2012, but going back to July 2011, the trend is mostly higher.

Price concessions appeared to be occurring in more existing home markets (or perhaps fewer markets experienced sharper concessions) in July; the national median price for an existing home declined 0.8 percent to $187,300. When viewed from a longer-term perspective, though, the median price looks encouraging – up 9.4 percent year over year.

Supply is one frequently mentioned factor for the choppy sales trend. Supply relative to the current sales rate is at 6.4 months, down from 6.5 months in June and 9.3 months in July 2011. Inventory levels remain far below the peak set in 2004. That's good news for prices, but maybe not so good news for sustaining an upward sales trajectory.

New home sales, on the other hand, continually make gains. July sales increased 3.6 percent to an annualized rate of 372,000 units, which beat the consensus estimate by 2,000 units. If we go back to June 2011, the trend in new home sales has been mostly up, and mostly unbroken.

As with existing home sales, new-home sales experienced a few more price concessions, though mostly in the lower-priced sectors. The national median price dropped 2.1 percent, to $224,200, for July. The dearth of inventory should keep future discounting in check. Inventory is a mere 4.6 months at the current sales pace, a 31-percent decline over the 6.7 months in July 2011.

The positive trends in pricing and sales are welcomed news, to be sure. But that doesn't mean everyone is content. Sluggish job growth continues to weigh on the economy, while articles on shadow inventory continue to capture headlines.

We are more sanguine than most on the housing recovery. The Wall Street Journal appears to share our sentiment. A recent WJS article reiterated a number of the more salient points we've been hitting on for the past year: namely that shadow inventory is a well-vetted issue, many of the homes in the inventory will never hit market because they are uninhabitable, many of the homes have been converted to rentals, and many of them have been disposed through orderly short sales.

The most important takeaway is that shadow inventory is well vetted. It's never the known issues that sink a recovery, it's always the unknown issues – those lurking in the shadows. That said, shadow inventory has long ceased to lurk in the shadows, which is why it really is no longer shadow inventory.

Courtesy of Jessica Regan.

Search all Harrisburg PA homes for sale.

When you are buying or selling property in today's Harrisburg PA real estate market, it's important to have confidence in your real estate professional. Don’s commitment as your Harrisburg PA REALTOR® is to provide you with the specialized real estate service you deserve.

When you are an informed buyer or seller, you'll make the best decisions for the most important purchase or sale in your lifetime. That's why Don’s goal is to keep you informed on trends in Harrisburg PA real estate. With property values continuing to rise, real estate is a sound investment for now and for the future.

As a local area expert with knowledge of Harrisburg PA area communities, Don’s objective is to work diligently to assist you in meeting your real estate goals.

If you are considering buying or selling a home or would just like to have additional information about real estate in your area, please don't hesitate to call me at (717) 657-8700, complete my online form, or e-mail me at don@donroth.com.

One of our frequent laments over the past year has been the lack of diversity in the mortgage lending market. Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and the FHA back more than 90 percent of all new loans today, up from a third five years ago.

Unfortunately, the level of diversity might not be rising soon. Housingwire.com reports that regulators are pushing for lenders who offer high-risk mortgages to hire certified, licensed appraisers to conduct interior property inspections. (A high-risk mortgage is defined as one secured by a home with an interest rate above a certain threshold.) What's more, if a seller acquires this high-risk property for a lower price within six-months, an additional appraisal must be supplied at no cost to the consumer.

Basically, the regulators' proposal would raise the cost of higher-risk loans, which means there will be fewer of these loans. In turn, higher costs could make lenders even more risk averse, which would further shrink the pool of potential home buyers.

At this point, we think it makes financial and economic sense for lenders to venture further out on the risk scale. We understand the concerns, given the number of loans that went sour a few years ago. But today, there are simply too many potential borrowers relegated to the sidelines because of excessive risk aversion and its accompanying regulatory costs.

Prudent and thoughtful lending doesn't mean eschewing risky lending, it means approaching risky lending with intelligent underwriting procedures.

Courtesy of Jessica Regan.

Search all Harrisburg PA homes for sale.

When you are buying or selling property in today's Harrisburg PA real estate market, it's important to have confidence in your real estate professional. Don’s commitment as your Harrisburg PA REALTOR® is to provide you with the specialized real estate service you deserve.

When you are an informed buyer or seller, you'll make the best decisions for the most important purchase or sale in your lifetime. That's why Don’s goal is to keep you informed on trends in Harrisburg PA real estate. With property values continuing to rise, real estate is a sound investment for now and for the future.

As a local area expert with knowledge of Harrisburg PA area communities, Don’s objective is to work diligently to assist you in meeting your real estate goals.

If you are considering buying or selling a home or would just like to have additional information about real estate in your area, please don't hesitate to call me at (717) 657-8700, complete my online form, or e-mail me at don@donroth.com.

It looks like a new trend is developing in the second half of 2012: upping the home-price outlook. Last week, we mentioned that Zelman & Associates raised its home-price forecast for 2012. This week, it's Bank of America's turn.

At the start of the year, analysts at Bank of America predicted home prices would rise a mere 0.5 percent for 2012. Today, these same analysts believe national home prices will post a 2-percent gain, followed by another 2-percent gain in 2013, which is up from their original estimate for a 0.3-percent gain.

We weren't surprise to see Bank of America raise its price expectations. We also weren't surprised by its rationale. Bank of America cited many of the same variables we've cited over the past year: a shift toward shorts sales among creditors, a decreased flow of foreclosures, a reduction in supply. Increased demand also helps, which when coupled with decreased supply leads to the inevitable – higher prices.

Home builders have also held supply in check. Starts, especially on single-family units, remain at lows that are below those seen during the 1981-1982 recession.

Home builders still have a long way to go before they hit the long-term annual average, but they've been ramping up production over the past year. Housing starts came in at 746,000 annualized units in July, which is down 1.1 percent from June. It's important, though, to keep an eye on the big picture. In that context, starts are up 21.5 percent year-over-year. It appears starts will continue to gain momentum, considering permits rose 6.8 percent to 812,000 annualized units in July.

Increased new-home inventory won't materially change today's low inventory levels. In other words, home prices – new and existing – should continue to gain traction across the country. (Of course, all markets are local and the degree of traction will vary among markets.)

As for the overhang of shadow inventory, the longer it remains in the shadows, the less likely it will be inventory. Houses, we often forget, are depreciating assets if they are insufficiently maintained. Houses can, and do, go away. We actually lose over 300,000 housing units annually through neglect, fire, or natural disasters.

In short, we still see persistent price gains for much of the country.

Speaking of prices, the price of most mortgages rose this past week. This actually marks the third-consecutive week where mortgage lending rates rose. Granted, we are talking about a couple basis points in some instances, but it's still a trend.

An improving economic outlook (which raises loan demand) was the most repeated explanation for rising lending rates. Retail sales are trending higher, and increased sales reflect rising consumer confidence. Increased home-building activity is also bolstering the outlook for the economy.

So where are rates going? The 10-year U.S. Treasury note is a useful proxy for gauging mortgage lending rates, and it's been trending higher over the past month. So we don't expect a pull-back in rates this week. In fact, we wouldn't be surprised to see a fourth-consecutive week of rate increases.

Courtesy of Jessica Regan.

Search all Harrisburg PA homes for sale.

When you are buying or selling property in today's Harrisburg PA real estate market, it's important to have confidence in your real estate professional. Don’s commitment as your Harrisburg PA REALTOR® is to provide you with the specialized real estate service you deserve.

When you are an informed buyer or seller, you'll make the best decisions for the most important purchase or sale in your lifetime. That's why Don’s goal is to keep you informed on trends in Harrisburg PA real estate. With property values continuing to rise, real estate is a sound investment for now and for the future.

As a local area expert with knowledge of Harrisburg PA area communities, Don’s objective is to work diligently to assist you in meeting your real estate goals.

If you are considering buying or selling a home or would just like to have additional information about real estate in your area, please don't hesitate to call me at (717) 657-8700, complete my online form, or e-mail me at don@donroth.com.

The problem with vetting national numbers is that local markets rarely reflect the national numbers. This causes problems, mostly due to false or unrealistic expectations if the local numbers don't gel with the national numbers.

The fact is there is never a perfect time to buy or sell a home. Only in hindsight do we realize that our timing was good, or maybe not so good. That said, it's important not to be paralyzed by the fear of not selling at the top or buying at the bottom or financing at rock-bottom rates.

There are still pundits (most notably Fiserv) who think falling home prices are in our future. Unfortunately, that expectation gets reported at the national level and is interpreted to mean prices in most markets will fall. This isn't the case, but it tends to attenuate activity through fear.

We are keen to emphasize that markets are local. But even in local markets that are rising, there will always be concerns about prices backsliding or the economy tanking. The key is to always factor in where we are in a historical context. Looking at the big picture removes some of the worry and places a long-term investment like residential real estate in the proper perspective. It also increases the likelihood of making a profitable purchase or sale.

Search all Harrisburg PA homes for sale.

When you are buying or selling property in today's Harrisburg PA real estate market, it's important to have confidence in your real estate professional. Don’s commitment as your Harrisburg PA REALTOR® is to provide you with the specialized real estate service you deserve.

When you are an informed buyer or seller, you'll make the best decisions for the most important purchase or sale in your lifetime. That's why Don’s goal is to keep you informed on trends in Harrisburg PA real estate. With property values continuing to rise, real estate is a sound investment for now and for the future.

As a local area expert with knowledge of Harrisburg PA area communities, Don’s objective is to work diligently to assist you in meeting your real estate goals.

If you are considering buying or selling a home or would just like to have additional information about real estate in your area, please don't hesitate to call me at (717) 657-8700, complete my online form, or e-mail me at don@donroth.com.

Consumer confidence has waned in recent months, and that's hurting home sales. That latest confidence reading, reported for July, shows some improvement. Unfortunately, it also shows a drop in home-buying plans. Before we get too down, though, it's worth mentioning confidence is fickle: it can change quickly and with significant magnitude. No other variable is more impacting on confidence than job growth.

When people are working, uncertainty withers and confidence grows. Confidence, in turn, emboldens more people to pursue big-dollar purchases, such as a home.

When job growth begins to adhere to an observable upward trend, you can be sure confidence will begin to adhere to a similar trend. When that occurs, home-price gains will accelerate and mortgage lending rates will rise. Admittedly, that scenario doesn't appear to be in our immediate future; then again, markets can and do change much faster than most market watchers anticipate. (Phoenix home prices are a good example.) That's something we should all keep in mind.

Courtesy of Jessica Regan.

Search all Harrisburg PA homes for sale.

When you are buying or selling property in today's Harrisburg PA real estate market, it's important to have confidence in your real estate professional. Don’s commitment as your Harrisburg PA REALTOR® is to provide you with the specialized real estate service you deserve.

When you are an informed buyer or seller, you'll make the best decisions for the most important purchase or sale in your lifetime. That's why Don’s goal is to keep you informed on trends in Harrisburg PA real estate. With property values continuing to rise, real estate is a sound investment for now and for the future.

As a local area expert with knowledge of Harrisburg PA area communities, Don’s objective is to work diligently to assist you in meeting your real estate goals.

If you are considering buying or selling a home or would just like to have additional information about real estate in your area, please don't hesitate to call me at (717) 657-8700, complete my online form, or e-mail me at don@donroth.com.

Is it still meaningful to report on the upward trend in home prices? We have to answer “yes,” because there's still a lot of time to make up, considering all the negative reporting that occurred over the past four years.

With that in mind, we're happy to report that prices continue to trend higher. The latest data from Zillow show home prices rose 2.1 percent year-over-year for the second quarter of 2012 to post the first year-over-year increase since 2007. When measuring quarter-to-quarter movement, price gains were the highest they've been since 2005.

Supply, or rather the lack thereof, is helping to drive home prices higher in many parts of the country. The Wall Street Journal's quarterly survey of housing-market conditions in 28 metropolitan regions shows that inventories of unsold homes have fallen in every market and are down by more than 20 percent in two-thirds of those markets.

Reduced inventory is driving prices higher. Unfortunately, it's also driving sales volume lower. Closings on existing homes fell in June, and contract signings for the month point to fewer closings in July and August.

Sales of new homes also fell in June, but they fell on strong upward revisions to May's and April's data. June's annual sales rate of 350,000 units was 20,000 shy of the consensus estimate, but the sting of the disappointment was offset by a 13,000 upward revision to May's sales tally, which lifted the total to 382,000 units for that month. Further offsetting June's disappointing reading was a 15,000 unit upward revision to April's sales figures.

The dip in new-home sales didn't impact supply, which remains at 4.9 months at the current sales pace. In fact, completed new homes for sale, at 41,000, remains the lowest on record. In other words, inventory remains tight, and that in and of itself is limiting new-home sales. Not surprisingly, tight supply has also been lifting new-home prices over much of 2012. The national median price for a new home now stands at $232,600.

We find it interesting that so many pundits lamented the possible destabilizing impact of shadow inventory swamping the market, yet today many of these same pundits are lamenting that more of that inventory remains on the sidelines. Sometimes you just can't win.

There is a good reason we're seeing a dearth of new inventory coming to market – expectations. If you expect higher prices in the future, you'll be reluctant to list your property today. We see expectations of rising prices taking hold in more markets. For this reason, we don't see home prices backtracking any time soon; it's also a big reason for prices to continue moving higher.

Courtesy of Jessica Regan.

Search all Harrisburg PA homes for sale.

When you are buying or selling property in today's Harrisburg PA real estate market, it's important to have confidence in your real estate professional. Don’s commitment as your Harrisburg PA REALTOR® is to provide you with the specialized real estate service you deserve.

When you are an informed buyer or seller, you'll make the best decisions for the most important purchase or sale in your lifetime. That's why Don’s goal is to keep you informed on trends in Harrisburg PA real estate. With property values continuing to rise, real estate is a sound investment for now and for the future.

As a local area expert with knowledge of Harrisburg PA area communities, Don’s objective is to work diligently to assist you in meeting your real estate goals.

If you are considering buying or selling a home or would just like to have additional information about real estate in your area, please don't hesitate to call me at (717) 657-8700, complete my online form, or e-mail me at don@donroth.com.

Each week, mortgage rates establish a new all-time low. Is this a good thing? Many lenders and economists think so. After all, fewer dollar tied up in housing expenses means more dollars to spend and invest elsewhere.

The Federal Reserve's policy of purchasing long-term bonds means mortgage lending rates will likely stay low through 2013. If the Fed injects more money into the economy by purchasing these long-term bonds with new money, rates could go even lower.

The push for more money and lower interest rates is seductive, but there is another side to the coin: private capital. If investors and savers are getting paid little for tying up their money, they won't tie up their money. That means the market becomes even more dependent on government sources of financing. This, in turn, means a less diverse market.

The problem with a less diverse market is that we see a lot more recycling, meaning the same people refinancing repeatedly. Granted, the latest HARP has brought new refinances into the market, but we'd like to see the market promote more borrowing driven by new buyers. We think more private capital would do that. But private capital, unlike public capital, demands a positive rate of return. Today's low rates don't provide that.

Courtesy of Jessica Regan.

Search all Harrisburg PA homes for sale.

When you are buying or selling property in today's Harrisburg PA real estate market, it's important to have confidence in your real estate professional. Don’s commitment as your Harrisburg PA REALTOR® is to provide you with the specialized real estate service you deserve.

When you are an informed buyer or seller, you'll make the best decisions for the most important purchase or sale in your lifetime. That's why Don’s goal is to keep you informed on trends in Harrisburg PA real estate. With property values continuing to rise, real estate is a sound investment for now and for the future.

As a local area expert with knowledge of Harrisburg PA area communities, Don’s objective is to work diligently to assist you in meeting your real estate goals.

If you are considering buying or selling a home or would just like to have additional information about real estate in your area, please don't hesitate to call me at (717) 657-8700, complete my online form, or e-mail me at don@donroth.com.

Are the home builders foreshadowing the future of the housing market? We sure hope so, because builder sentiment suggests better days ahead.

We say that because the home builder sentiment index surged a whopping six points to 35 in July. The monthly improvement is the largest in nearly 10 years, and it lifts the index up to where it was in March 2007. What's more, the posting wasn't skewed by a few bullish outliers. All regions reported gains. Looking ahead, the expectation is that sales will continue to improve over the next six months.

When you parse the trend in housing starts over 2012, it's easy to why home builders are more optimistic. The uptrend in new home sales is finally working its way into new construction. Housing starts in June improved 6.9 percent over May. Gains were prevalent in both the single-family and multifamily components. The more-important single-family component saw starts increase 4.7 percent, while the volatile multifamily component rebounded 12.8 percent, following a 19.3-percent drop in May.

The news on existing homes was less rosy, proving again the housing market is a heterogeneous market. Sales for June dropped a surprising 5.4 percent to a 4.37-million annualized rate. The lower sales pace was reflected in inventory, which rise to a 6.6-month supply from 6.4 months in May.

There were still some positive takeaways. The national median sales price for an existing home rose to $189,400, a 5-percent increase over May and a 7.9-percent increase over June 2011. Higher prices might be discouraging sales on the low end of the market, but the price rise, which has been confirmed in other data sources, is good news for homeowners struggling with negative equity.

We've been reporting for months now that the housing market is on the mend. More important, it's on the mend in more local markets. After all, local markets are what matter most; few of us conduct business nationally.It's reassuring to have our anecdotal evidence reaffirmed by official data. The Federal Reserve, in its latest Beige Book release, reports that the trend remains largely positive. The Fed notes that most districts reported declines in home inventories, while stabilizing and home price were becoming more of the norm.

That said, many pundits and market watchers continue to worry aloud about shadow inventory. To us, though, the state of the U.S. economy is the much bigger concern. Job growth has been anemic in recent months. The latest quarterly data show that hiring by companies is the weakest it has been in two years. Unfortunately, the contraction has been equal opportunity: growth in both consumer spending and business investment have slowed. An economy that is marred by reduced spending and investing will also be marred by less hiring.

Slow economic growth could spur the Fed to pump even more money into the economy. The rationale is that more money will induce more spending and investing, because there is less incentive to hold cash due to the reduced value of each note. Concurrently, more money will keep lending rates low because there is more money to lend.This sounds good in theory, but there a few issues with the Fed's easy money policy, which we'll explicate below.

Courtesy of Jessica Regan.

Search all Harrisburg PA homes for sale.

When you are buying or selling property in today's Harrisburg PA real estate market, it's important to have confidence in your real estate professional. Don’s commitment as your Harrisburg PA REALTOR® is to provide you with the specialized real estate service you deserve.

When you are an informed buyer or seller, you'll make the best decisions for the most important purchase or sale in your lifetime. That's why Don’s goal is to keep you informed on trends in Harrisburg PA real estate. With property values continuing to rise, real estate is a sound investment for now and for the future.

As a local area expert with knowledge of Harrisburg PA area communities, Don’s objective is to work diligently to assist you in meeting your real estate goals.

If you are considering buying or selling a home or would just like to have additional information about real estate in your area, please don't hesitate to call me at (717) 657-8700, complete my online form, or e-mail me at don@donroth.com.