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Housing's Comparative Advantage

by Don Roth

Ultra-low mortgage rates are making homes more affordable. At the same time, the lending market is becoming more accommodating. Insurance premiums are being reduced on FHA loans. This means even cheaper financing will be available to a wider swath of potential home buyers.

Home-price appreciation is also moderating, and homes are appreciating at a more reasonable rate. Rent-price increases, on the other hand, are making it more expensive for people to rent. Data from Zillow show that rents have grown at twice the pace of income over the past 14 years. Zillow expects rents to outpace home-price appreciation over the next year.

This means homeownership will become even more appealing in 2015.

We've always believed most people prefer to own than rent. There is something about owning a home than can't be replicated by renting. Peace of mind is found in being able to paint the walls and drive a nail wherever you want without worrying about a security deposit. Pride of ownership really does have value.

But more than anything, ownership gets people off the price escalator. Rent never ceases to rise. When a home is bought and financed with a fixed-rate loan, what was paid last year will be paid this year, and years after that (property taxes and insurance aside).

When low lending rates are combined with the comparative advantages of ownership, there is no reason to not like the outlook for housing in 2015.

Information provided by Jessica Regan.

Search all Harrisburg PA homes for sale.

When you are buying or selling property in today's Harrisburg PA real estate market, it's important to have confidence in your real estate professional. Don’s commitment as your Harrisburg PA REALTOR® is to provide you with the specialized real estate service you deserve.

When you are an informed buyer or seller, you'll make the best decisions for the most important purchase or sale in your lifetime. That's why Don’s goal is to keep you informed on trends in Harrisburg PA real estate. With property values continuing to rise, real estate is a sound investment for now and for the future.

As a local area expert with knowledge of Harrisburg PA area communities, Don’s objective is to work diligently to assist you in meeting your real estate goals.

If you are considering buying or selling a home or would just like to have additional information about real estate in your area, please don't hesitate to call me at (717) 657-8700complete my online form, or e-mail me at don@donroth.com.

The Truth Behind Home Equity Loans

by Don Roth

calculatorDo you treat your home like your ATM card?

Many Americans apparently do, according to recently released housing data. The Wall Street Journal reports that in the first quarter this year, homeowners took out more than 230,000 home-equity lines of credit, also known as HELOCs, giving them access to some $23.4 billion—the highest quarterly figure since 2008.

What’s behind the peak in borrowing? Lenders are offering more attractive interest rates (the average HELOC rate was 5.01% in June, down from 5.16% a year ago) and allowing people to borrow a greater percentage of their home’s value. Homeowners are taking advantage of the lower rates and greater access to help pay for renovations or even to buy new homes, as well as to pay off non-housing-related costs like emergency expenses and higher-interest credit card balances or personal loans.

While it might be tempting to take on new debt in order to pay off old ones, there’s a hidden danger in doing so: Defaulting on a HELOC could carry far worse consequences than defaulting on a credit card or other type of loan. Because you’re putting up your home as collateral, a lender can foreclose if they don’t get their money back.

And homeowners who use their lines of credit to buy a new home put themselves at risk because a drop in home prices could mean that, with your mortgage and what you’ve borrowed from your HELOC combined, you end up owing more for your property than you could sell it for.

Still, there are some benefits to HELOCs over conventional loans. For starters, unlike with a home-equity loan, you’re not receiving a lump sum of cash; you’re only borrowing the amount you need, which may or may not be up to the full line of credit. And if you draw down only a small amount at a time, you only have to pay interest on that amount—just make sure you’re aware of changing interest rates, as HELOCs typically have adjustable rates rather than fixed ones.

Information provided by BrightNest.com.

Search all Harrisburg PA homes for sale.

When you are buying or selling property in today's Harrisburg PA real estate market, it's important to have confidence in your real estate professional. Don’s commitment as your Harrisburg PA REALTOR® is to provide you with the specialized real estate service you deserve.

When you are an informed buyer or seller, you'll make the best decisions for the most important purchase or sale in your lifetime. That's why Don’s goal is to keep you informed on trends in Harrisburg PA real estate. With property values continuing to rise, real estate is a sound investment for now and for the future.

As a local area expert with knowledge of Harrisburg PA area communities, Don’s objective is to work diligently to assist you in meeting your real estate goals.

If you are considering buying or selling a home or would just like to have additional information about real estate in your area, please don't hesitate to call me at (717) 657-8700, complete my online form, or e-mail me at don@donroth.com.

Harrisburg PA Mortgage Market Recap - June 14 2012

by Don Roth

Last week we delved into the plethora of positive home-price data that has emerged in recent months. This week, we are glad to say, we add to the tally.

CoreLogic reports that national home prices increased 1.1 percent year over year in April, to mark a second year-over-year increase. Looking at month-over-month data, we find that prices increased 2.2 percent. When distressed sales are removed, the month-over-month price increase jumps to 2.6 percent.

Of course, all real estate is heterogeneous. When we look at more localized markets, we find the greatest price improvements continue to materialize in the bigger bust states: CoreLogic reports prices are up 8.8 percent in Arizona, 5.5 percent in Florida, and 5.4 percent in Utah.

On the other side, we find pockets of depreciation are moving east, with Delaware posting a 11.9-percent price decrease and Rhode Island a 6.2-percent decrease. The silver lining is that the largest price decreases are occurring in two of the country's smallest states – Rhode Island and Delaware. So geographically speaking, large price decreases appear contained within smaller locales.

We are encouraged by the fact that price appreciation is spreading to higher-end markets. Over the past year, price appreciation was the result of strong demand for lower priced homes – those selling below $140,000. Asset valuation firm Clear Capital reports price appreciation is spreading to mid- and top-tier segments in many markets. We're seeing a more diverse market – one that's shifting more toward owner-occupied buyers and away from investors.

Now, we'd like to see a more diverse mortgage lending market, but in the meantime we continue to see a historically low lending-rate market. This past week we saw the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note hit an all-time low of 1.46 percent. Thirty-year mortgage-backed securities issued by Fannie Mae yield less than 3 percent. Not surprisingly, the prime 30-year fixed-rate mortgage remains well below 4 percent in most markets. So why do such low rates persist? 

Well, there is growing concern U.S. economic growth is stalling. Only 69,000 jobs were created in May, far below the 150,000 jobs most market analysts were expecting. Lower job growth correlates with a slowing economy, which, in turn, correlates with lower loan growth and lower lending rates.

Events unfolding in Europe might be the more influential cause, though. It seems Greece's probability of bankruptcy and ejection from the European Union rises by the day. What's more, Spain's economy continues to tank, with economic growth at nil and unemployment at well over 20 percent. Both countries are experiencing bank runs, but not in the traditional sense of long lines of people queuing up to pull out money. A bank run today can occur with a simple mouse click.

Much of the money flowing out of the Mediterranean is flowing into dollar-denominated assets, such as U.S. Treasury securities. The increased flow of money into these securities drives down yields and helps drive down mortgage lending rates.

Courtesy of Jessica Regan.

Search all Harrisburg PA homes for sale.

When you are buying or selling property in today's Harrisburg PA real estate market, it's important to have confidence in your real estate professional. Don’s commitment as your Harrisburg PA REALTOR® is to provide you with the specialized real estate service you deserve.

When you are an informed buyer or seller, you'll make the best decisions for the most important purchase or sale in your lifetime. That's why Don’s goal is to keep you informed on trends in Harrisburg PA real estate. With property values continuing to rise, real estate is a sound investment for now and for the future.

As a local area expert with knowledge of Harrisburg PA area communities, Don’s objective is to work diligently to assist you in meeting your real estate goals.

If you are considering buying or selling a home or would just like to have additional information about real estate in your area, please don't hesitate to call me at (717) 657-8700, complete my online form, or e-mail me at don@donroth.com.

Harrisburg PA Mortgage Market Recap - April 23

by Don Roth

All good things really do end, and that includes optimism. Home builder sentiment had been improving measurably for the past seven months, until this month when the NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index fell three notches to score 25 compared with March's 28.

Many home builders had expected the volume of signed contracts to pick up at a faster pace by this time of year. Unfortunately, that hasn't been the case. Recent economic data over the past month point to a sputtering, if not stalled, economy.

The latest housing starts data, no doubt, impacted home builder sentiment. Starts dipped 5.8 percent in March after decreasing 2.8 percent in February. The March pace of 654,000 annualized units fell far below market expectations for 700,000 units. March's drop was driven by a nearly 20 percent decline in multifamily starts. Home builder sentiment might be down on volume, but it should be up on price. We were all somewhat concerned on the direction prices were taking at the beginning of the year, but that appears to have changed for the better in many markets. According to RE/MAX's latest price report, home prices in the 53 largest cities it follows increased 5.8 percent year-over-year, with the median sales price rising to $184,525, in March.

It's worth noting that RE/MAX CEO Margaret Kelly shares our sentiment on markets and prices, in that real estate markets are local, wholesale price declines are behind us, and prices are stabilizing and improving. Ms Kelly says, "Although we don't expect home prices to rise in every market at the same rate, the worst is definitely behind us, and a slow, steady recovery is taking hold." We couldn't agree more.On the other hand, we don't necessarily agree with many of our colleagues on mortgage lending rates. Rates have been volatile and mostly lower over the past two weeks. Rates are again near an all-time low. This has created another spurt of refinancing. Rising interest rates shook many borrowers back to reality. When rates dropped, borrowers didn't want to miss an opportunity that could prove fleeting.

Taking advantage of these low lending rates is a smart move. We've laid out a case over the past couple months on why we think interest rates will head higher, at least in the long term. No new data have convinced us otherwise.

Admittedly, it's impossible to predict interest rates with certainty in the near term, but a few factors are worth considering: We've seen a marked increase in rate volatility that has moved the market back to a sideways trend. To be sure, rates could be higher or lower over the next month, but given their proximity to all-time lows and their unwillingness to move lower, we think there's more risk than reward in waiting for still lower rates.

Last month, lending rates shot up nearly 50 basis points, which shocked many borrowers. Those who thought they missed the boat got lucky, but they might not be so lucky on the next lending rate spike.

Courtesy of Jessica Regan.

Search all Harrisburg PA homes for sale.

When you are buying or selling property in today's Harrisburg PA real estate market, it's important to have confidence in your real estate professional. Don’s commitment as your Harrisburg PA REALTOR® is to provide you with the specialized real estate service you deserve.

When you are an informed buyer or seller, you'll make the best decisions for the most important purchase or sale in your lifetime. That's why Don’s goal is to keep you informed on trends in Harrisburg PA real estate. With property values continuing to rise, real estate is a sound investment for now and for the future.

As a local area expert with knowledge of Harrisburg PA area communities, Don’s objective is to work diligently to assist you in meeting your real estate goals.

If you are considering buying or selling a home or would just like to have additional information about real estate in your area, please don't hesitate to call me at (717) 657-8700, complete my online form, or e-mail me at don@donroth.com.

Harrisburg PA Mortgage Market Recap - April 13

by Don Roth

Just as anticipated, mortgage rates have settled back a bit after its recent upward movement of fifteen basis points over the last two weeks. Widespread upward economic movement fostered the rise, but a more realistic approach to the economy’s forward momentum seems to be creeping back in.

Rates have bumped off a little from their historic bottoms of February, but the modest movement should not create any additional disturbance or turbulence for the housing market. Even in the worst-case scenario, the eighth percentage point increase in a loan’s interest rate is probably not enough to ruin most deals. Especially since that slight increase could be ‘brought down’ through the payment of approximately a half-point fee, perhaps less.

It should be no surprise to anyone who has applied for a loan recently that banks are being much more careful. A new repost indicates just how tight conditions have become – and how even borrowers with favorable credit profiles are being denied. Loans closed by banks and mortgage lenders in February had borrowers with an average credit score of 750; this average is up from 740 six months earlier, and an average loan-to-value ratio of 76%, with the average denied loan having a credit score of 699 and a loan-to-value ratio of 83%.

While there is no hard downshift in economic activity, research shows that essentially, with the new spring housing season approaching, we are in the same boat, just with more favorable mortgage rates. An accumulation of February data and early data available for March suggests that activity is stabilizing with a softer trend beginning. Federal Chairman Bernanke’s reassurance about the direction of interest rates doesn’t hurt either, in terms of trimming any upward pressure for current rates. 

Recent weekly data is reinforcing the notion that a cooler economic climate is in formation. Claims for new unemployment benefits moved downward in January to a rate which is the lowest it has been in 4 years. However, the unemployment benefits rate does not incorporate in statistics about workers who are under-employed. Approximately 9.3 million workers are considered underemployed as defined by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. That number is up from just over 8 million in July 2011, but down from a peak of approximately 9.5 million in September 2010. Overall, employment gains for March will be no better nor no worse than February.

Courtesy of Jessica Regan.

Search all Harrisburg PA homes for sale.

When you are buying or selling property in today's Harrisburg PA real estate market, it's important to have confidence in your real estate professional. Don’s commitment as your Harrisburg PA REALTOR® is to provide you with the specialized real estate service you deserve.

When you are an informed buyer or seller, you'll make the best decisions for the most important purchase or sale in your lifetime. That's why Don’s goal is to keep you informed on trends in Harrisburg PA real estate. With property values continuing to rise, real estate is a sound investment for now and for the future.

As a local area expert with knowledge of Harrisburg PA area communities, Don’s objective is to work diligently to assist you in meeting your real estate goals.

If you are considering buying or selling a home or would just like to have additional information about real estate in your area, please don't hesitate to call me at (717) 657-8700, complete my online form, or e-mail me at don@donroth.com.

Harrisburg PA Mortgage Market Recap - February 28 2012

by Don Roth

So are things getting better or worse? We ask because the latest data on existing-home sales fail to provide a definitive answer. Sale were up once again, increasing 4.3 percent to a 4.57 million annualized rate in January, which, in turn, dropped supply to 6.1 months, the lowest inventory level in three years.The fact that existing-home sales are rising is good news. The not-so-good news is that sales appear to be driven by discounting. The national median price fell 4.6 percent to $154,700, while the national average price dropped 4.0 percent to $201,200.

In short, existing-home sales are trending higher, but the trend is being fueled in part by price discounting – at least at the national level.We're always quick to point out that all real estate is local. National numbers – averages in particular – strip local data of their individuality and meaning. That's why we are always more interested in locally produced data, which nearly always differs from what the national numbers say.

For example, data from Pro Teck Valuation Services and Collateral Analytics show significant improvement in South Florida, which a few years ago was one of the leading bubble markets. On the flip side, their data show significant weakness in a few Connecticut burgs, which mostly endured the post-2007 sell-off unscathed.

The bottom line is markets aren't homogenous: The country has experienced varying degrees of price corrections and sales volumes since the market peaks of 2006 and 2007. These degrees are often smoothed away in aggregated national numbers, thus limiting their usefulness.

The mortgage market, on the other hand, has seen few degrees of variability of late. Mortgage rates have held a bottom achieved a couple months ago. The consensus among mortgage pundits is that this bottom will hold for 2012.

It's difficult to argue with the consensus when you consider the Federal Reserve has openly stated it intends to hold the fed funds rate – the influential short-term rate – at zero through 2014. On the long-end of the interest-rate spectrum, the Fed has stated it will continue to purchase longer-term Treasury securities and mortgage-backed assets to keep mortgage rates low.

This doesn't mean that mortgage rates can't get more expensive, though. The FHA recently announced it was raising premium fees on its forward mortgages by 10 basis points on conforming loans and 25 basis points on jumbo loans. These costs must be recouped from the borrower.

It's also worth keeping in mind that the Federal Reserve isn't omniscient. Market forces – such an unexpected spike in inflation or economic growth – will move rates higher, regardless of what the Fed does. So take the consensus for what it is – an opinion and not a guarantee.

Courtesy of Jessica Regan.

Search all Harrisburg PA homes for sale.

When you are buying or selling property in today's Harrisburg PA real estate market, it's important to have confidence in your real estate professional. Don’s commitment as your Harrisburg PA REALTOR® is to provide you with the specialized real estate service you deserve.

When you are an informed buyer or seller, you'll make the best decisions for the most important purchase or sale in your lifetime. That's why Don’s goal is to keep you informed on trends in Harrisburg PA real estate. With property values continuing to rise, real estate is a sound investment for now and for the future.

As a local area expert with knowledge of Harrisburg PA area communities, Don’s objective is to work diligently to assist you in meeting your real estate goals.

If you are considering buying or selling a home or would just like to have additional information about real estate in your area, please don't hesitate to call me at (717) 657-8700, complete my online form, or e-mail me at don@donroth.com.

Harrisburg PA Mortgage Market Recap - Jan 31 2012

by Don Roth

The data on housing were mixed this past week, but we would say that, for the most part, they listed more positively than negatively.

Last Friday, the NAR reported sales of existing homes rose 5 percent to an annual rate of 4.61 units in December. This marked the third-consecutive month of sales growth. This latest increase helped reduce inventory to 2.38 million units, the equivalent of a 6.2 month supply at December's sales pace.

Pricing was the one bugaboo in the NAR's data. The median price for an existing home was $166,100 for 2011, a 2.5 percent drop from 2010 and the lowest median price since 2002. This is a disappointment, but hardly a disaster. We’ve said many times that national numbers usually lack a meaningful connection to local markets.

The news on distressed properties was a little more encouraging. RealtyTrac reports that homes in some stage of foreclosure dropped 11 percent in the third quarter of 2011 compared to the previous quarter. Of course, part of the improvement is due to the ongoing matter of banks working through last year's auto-signing imbroglio. That said, our own anecdotal evidence suggests an improving distressed-property market.

The new-home market is also improving, just not so obviously. New home sales eased 2.2 percent to an annual rate of 307,000 units in December, which pushed inventory up to a 6.1 month supply. Like existing-home prices, new-home prices were also pressured for the month, with the national median price dropping to $210,300.

Recent new-home data suggest that December's numbers might just be a hiccup: Homebuilder sentiment has improved markedly in recent months, as has the longer-term sales trend.

Speaking of trends, the trend in mortgage rates is expected to hold for the long term. On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve stated that interest rates will remain low until at least through 2014, pushing back a previous date of mid-2013. According to Federal Reserve data, the economy simply isn't growing at the pace it had expected.

The impact of the Fed's revised policy was both immediate and palpable. Before the announcement, the 10-year Treasury note yield had been creeping higher and was yielding 2.06 percent just before Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke stepped up to the mike. After he had stepped down, the yield had dropped to 1.96 percent.

So it appears low base mortgage rates are with us for the long term, but that doesn't mean low-cost mortgages are. A recent increase in fees Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac charge lenders will push costs higher. Expect the fee increase to raise borrowing costs a quarter percentage point.

It's worth pointing out that we said “appears” in connection with low mortgage rates. Nothing is certain where the economy and investor behavior is concerned. To be sure, if we were forced to place a bet, we’d likely bet on January 2013 mortgage rates matching January 2012 rates. We suspect most everyone else would place that same bet. That fact, in and of itself, is a contrarian indicator that rates aren't necessarily destined to stay at today's levels. 

Courtesy of Jessica Regan.

Search all Harrisburg PA homes for sale.

When you are buying or selling property in today's Harrisburg PA real estate market, it's important to have confidence in your real estate professional. Don’s commitment as your Harrisburg PA REALTOR® is to provide you with the specialized real estate service you deserve.

When you are an informed buyer or seller, you'll make the best decisions for the most important purchase or sale in your lifetime. That's why Don’s goal is to keep you informed on trends in Harrisburg PA real estate. With property values continuing to rise, real estate is a sound investment for now and for the future.

As a local area expert with knowledge of Harrisburg PA area communities, Don’s objective is to work diligently to assist you in meeting your real estate goals.

If you are considering buying or selling a home or would just like to have additional information about real estate in your area, please don't hesitate to call me at (717) 657-8700, complete my online form, or e-mail me at don@donroth.com.

Harrisburg PA Mortgage Market Recap - Jan 16 2012

by Don Roth

It's really all about the economy at this point. Fortunately, the economy is moving forward, albeit at what too-often seems a plodding pace.

But moving forward we are. The Federal Reserve noted as much in its latest rendering of its Beige Book, a report of anecdotal evidence of economic progress in the dozen Fed districts. The Beige Book states, "Compared with prior summaries, the reports on balance suggest ongoing improvement in economic conditions in recent months, with most districts highlighting more favorable conditions than identified in reports from the late spring through early fall.

”Now, that attempt to say something without saying too much doesn't really enlighten, but it does affirm what we've known all along – the economic recovery is progressing.

Home prices might also be progressing better than the national numbers suggest. Zillow Inc. reports home prices were flat in November, with the average national home price at $147,800. But the housing market is a local market, and local markets appear to be improving better than the national numbers report (which can be skewed by outliers, e.g. Las Vegas ).Of the 165 housing markets tracked by Zillow, 60 percent reported stable or appreciating home values in November. Notable winning locales include Los Angeles, Washington D.C, Miami , San Francisco , and Detroit.

The flow of private money into housing is also encouraging. We've noted over the past month that hedge funds, investing platforms for the wealthy, are directing more funds into housing stocks. In addition, Robert Shiller, co-inventor of the S&P/Case-Shiller Real Estate Index, noted at a recent American Economic Association function that the futures market for real estate (basically bets on the direction of home prices) is pointing to rising prices.

We expect interest in residential real estate to further bloom in 2012. Homes are enticingly affordable these days. U.S. Department of Housing and U.S. Treasury Department data show that home affordability is at a level unseen since 1971. In fact, median-income families today have double the funds needed to cover the cost of owning a home than they did 40 years ago.

Historically low mortgage rates also contribute to the affordability quotient, and rates continue to skim along the bottom, as they have done for the past two months.

But rates aren't the only consideration in the cost of a loan. Fees come into play. Unfortunately, borrowers face higher fees in the near future. The guarantee fee on loans sold to Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae is set to increase a minimum of 10 basis points effective April 1. Many industry watchers, though, expect the actual cost to fall within the 20-to-80 basis-point range.

Today, affordability is at a multi-decade high, and mortgage rates are at a multi-decade low. We see few economic reasons for anyone in the market for a mortgage and house not to take the plunge.

Courtesy of Jessica Regan.

Search all Harrisburg PA homes for sale.

When you are buying or selling property in today's Harrisburg PA real estate market, it's important to have confidence in your real estate professional. Don’s commitment as your Harrisburg PA REALTOR® is to provide you with the specialized real estate service you deserve.

When you are an informed buyer or seller, you'll make the best decisions for the most important purchase or sale in your lifetime. That's why Don’s goal is to keep you informed on trends in Harrisburg PA real estate. With property values continuing to rise, real estate is a sound investment for now and for the future.

As a local area expert with knowledge of Harrisburg PA area communities, Don’s objective is to work diligently to assist you in meeting your real estate goals.

If you are considering buying or selling a home or would just like to have additional information about real estate in your area, please don't hesitate to call me at (717) 657-8700, complete my online form, or e-mail me at don@donroth.com.

The One Fly In The Ointment

by Don Roth

Housing is still dealing with some difficult issues – namely shadow inventory and negative equity. The former has shown much improvement based on data released during the last quarter of 2011; the latter will be helped by HARP 2.0, which is expected to be fully engaged by March.

The good news is economic and job growth will continue to remove rot from the system; that is, if buyers and borrowers are sufficiently motivated to act. Unfortunately, we see too few buyers and borrowers sufficiently motivated. The one question we field most often these days is, “Are mortgage rates going lower?” Embedded in the question is the belief that rates are going lower, which keeps too many people on the sidelines.

Our wish list for this year includes a stronger economy, more jobs, and more confident consumers. We'd also like to see a ratcheting up of interest rates. That way, borrowers prone to procrastination will be less prone to procrastinate when they realize that any uptick in rates won't be followed by two downticks.

What's more, rising rates will be indicative of the sustained economic growth we all want.

Courtesy of Jessica Regan.

Search all Harrisburg PA homes for sale.

When you are buying or selling property in today's Harrisburg PA real estate market, it's important to have confidence in your real estate professional. Don’s commitment as your Harrisburg PA REALTOR® is to provide you with the specialized real estate service you deserve.

When you are an informed buyer or seller, you'll make the best decisions for the most important purchase or sale in your lifetime. That's why Don’s goal is to keep you informed on trends in Harrisburg PA real estate. With property values continuing to rise, real estate is a sound investment for now and for the future.

As a local area expert with knowledge of Harrisburg PA area communities, Don’s objective is to work diligently to assist you in meeting your real estate goals.

If you are considering buying or selling a home or would just like to have additional information about real estate in your area, please don't hesitate to call me at (717) 657-8700, complete my online form, or e-mail me at don@donroth.com.

Harrisburg PA Mortgage Market Recap - Jan 9 2012

by Don Roth

We've said that strong job growth will be key to a successful 2012. Early signs are encouraging. Automatic Data Processing (ADP) reports that private payroll numbers surged 325,000 in December – more than double expectations for a 160,000 increase.

The news on jobs is definitely good, but it's important to keep expectations tempered. This time last year, ADP reported that private employment jobs increased by 297,000. That bullish number got more than a few economists and pundits thumping for a full-bore recovery. Unfortunately, job growth abated and practically stagnated through the summer months of 2011.

That said, we remain encouraged. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reports that unemployment is, for the most part, dropping across the nation. The BLS's data show that 58 metropolitan areas reported jobless rates above 10 percent, but that's down from 112 a year earlier. Another 129 areas reported jobless rates below 7 percent, nearly double the 65 areas reported in November 2010.

So it appears employment is on the rise, which bodes well for improved home sales in 2012. Prices are another reason we should see more sales. Standard & Poor's data show current home prices when adjusted for inflation are at 2001 levels. In other words, homes are very affordable. When homes are very affordable, more homes will be sold and more markets will clear.

We've provided many examples of markets clearing over the past few months. Beleaguered Las Vegas is the latest example. DataQuick reports that home sales increased 11.2 percent year-over-year in November, with sales being driven by below-$200,000 homes. Prices are low in Las Vegas, to be sure, but the days of free-fall depreciation appear to have ended, with the median home price holding at $115,000 for three consecutive months.

Mortgage rates contribute to the affordability quotient. On that front, mortgages remain very affordable. In fact, over the past week the 30-year fixed-rate loan again touched a new low. This should come as no surprise when you see that the 10-year U.S. Treasury note also touched a new low, with its yield dipping below 1.9 percent.

Rates remain low thanks to the ongoing debt crisis in Europe , which continues to draw money to U.S. Treasury securities even though these securities don't yield enough to compensate for inflation. That's good news for borrowers, especially borrowers on the longer end of the spectrum – such as those seeking 30- or 15-year fixed-rate loans.

Is it worth waiting for even lower rates? We didn't expect to see sub 4-percent loans in 2011, so anything is possible. But you have to consider what's probable. With job growth accelerating and consumer confidence rising, it appears the economy is growing sufficiently to suggest any further rate drops will be measured in a few basis points.

At this point, it's really all about risk and reward. Today, the reward is very high, but we think the risk will likely rise with more evidence of improving economic growth.

Courtesy of Jessica Regan.

Search all Harrisburg PA homes for sale.

When you are buying or selling property in today's Harrisburg PA real estate market, it's important to have confidence in your real estate professional. Don’s commitment as your Harrisburg PA REALTOR® is to provide you with the specialized real estate service you deserve.

When you are an informed buyer or seller, you'll make the best decisions for the most important purchase or sale in your lifetime. That's why Don’s goal is to keep you informed on trends in Harrisburg PA real estate. With property values continuing to rise, real estate is a sound investment for now and for the future.

As a local area expert with knowledge of Harrisburg PA area communities, Don’s objective is to work diligently to assist you in meeting your real estate goals.

If you are considering buying or selling a home or would just like to have additional information about real estate in your area, please don't hesitate to call me at (717) 657-8700, complete my online form, or e-mail me at don@donroth.com.

Displaying blog entries 1-10 of 19

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