Real Estate Information Archive

Housing: The New Growth Market

Things are shaping up nicely as we head into summer.

Sales of existing homes once again ratcheted a notch higher. For April, sales rose 1.7% to 5.45 million units on an annualized rate.  The sales trend shows that monthly sales are occurring at the highs that were posted last fall.

We’re seeing more sales, but we’re not seeing more discounting.  To the contrary, the median price of an existing home rose 5% to $232,500 for April.  Year over year, the median price is up 6.3%. The fact that we are seeing more sales while prices hold firm bodes well for sales as we head into summer.

That we also see more existing homes coming to market also points to strong summer sales. Existing-home inventory was up a stout 9.2% for April, lifting the total number of homes for sale to 2.14 million. But even with this increase, inventory still runs low. The number of existing homes for sale in April were 3.6% lower than the number that prevailed a year ago. All in all, though, the April report on existing-home sales was a very encouraging report.

The same can be said for the report on new-home sales. The report was very encouraging. Indeed, it was even more than very encouraging. Our initial response was “WOW.”

April new-home sales posted at 619,000 units on an annualized rate. That’s a 16.6% monthly increase – the highest monthly increase in 24 years.  April’s numbers blew out all other monthly numbers since the housing recovery took hold a few years ago.  What’s more, the April report showed a 39,000 net upward revision in sales in the previous two months.

The trend in pricing makes the surge in new-home sales all the more startling.  Builders had been discounting to move inventory in recent months. That certainly wasn’t the case in April: The median price of a new home soared 7.8% to a record high of $321,000.

On the lending side, we find that the trend in mortgage applications also portends better days ahead.

Purchase applications moved higher last week, increasing 5% from the prior week. Purchase- application activity is running 17% higher than it was a year ago. This is an impressive gain that points to a strengthening housing market.

This latest round of housing and lending data support a contention that we’ve had all along.  Entering January, we predicted that 2016 could be the strongest year for home sales and lending that we’ve seen in over decade.  Our prediction is looking more likely to come to fruition.

Information provided by Jessica Regan.

Search all Harrisburg PA homes for sale.

When you are buying or selling property in today's Harrisburg PA real estate market, it's important to have confidence in your real estate professional. Don’s commitment as your Harrisburg PA REALTOR® is to provide you with the specialized real estate service you deserve.

When you are an informed buyer or seller, you'll make the best decisions for the most important purchase or sale in your lifetime. That's why Don’s goal is to keep you informed on trends in Harrisburg PA real estate. With property values continuing to rise, real estate is a sound investment for now and for the future.

As a local area expert with knowledge of Harrisburg PA area communities, Don’s objective is to work diligently to assist you in meeting your real estate goals.

If you are considering buying or selling a home or would just like to have additional information about real estate in your area, please don't hesitate to call me at (717) 657-8700, complete my online form, or e-mail me at don@donroth.com.

Did the Employment Numbers Seal the Deal?

Everyone's talking interest-rate hike after the blowout employment numbers for October. Payrolls surged by 271,000, handily beating all economists' estimates. October saw the strongest monthly payroll gains since last December. The surge in employment, in turn, dropped the unemployment rate down to 5%, the lowest it has been since May 2008. 

Job gains were realized across a wide swathe of the economy. Professional and business services lead the way with a 78,000 gain. The sub-component of temporary help services – a leading indicator for future hiring – was up a robust 25,000. What's more, everyone now working has, on average, a little more money to spend. Wage growth for October increased 2.5% year over year. 

When employment takes flight, interest rates are sure to follow. Indeed, the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note spiked nearly 10 basis points when the employment numbers hit the wire last Friday. As the 10-year note goes, so too goes mortgage rates. Rates rose to a four-month high over the past week. For much of October, the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage was quoted below 4%. Today, it's regularly quoted above 4%. 

Lenders are obviously pricing in a rate increase at the next Federal Reserve meeting, to be held on Dec. 16. More traders are also pricing in an increase. Federal funds rate futures contracts are priced with a 68% probability that the Fed will raise the fed funds rate next month.

So, it appears our streak could be ending. We've been saying since the beginning of the year that we don't see a fed funds rate increase until 2016. As recently as last week, we affirmed that opinion. But as a famous quote attributed to economist John Maynard Keynes goes, “When the facts change, I change my mind. What do you do?” We change our mind. We'll concede that a rate increase is more likely than not come December. 

That said, more likely isn't synonymous with inevitable. If consumer price inflation remains muted and if gross domestic product growth is revised downward, we could easily see the probability of a rate increase fall. The deal isn't done yet. 

Until then, we expect to see 4%-plus quotes on the 30-year loan. If the Fed decides again to kick the can down the road and postpone a fed funds rate increase, rates will very likely reverse course.

And if the Fed does raise the fed funds rate, that doesn't mean rates are going higher still.  When the Fed made its other major policy change – to systematically withdraw from quantitative easing two years ago – rates ran up until the time the Fed begin to withdraw. Rates than drifted lower by a full percentage point over the subsequent year.

Information provided by Jessica Regan.

Search all Harrisburg PA homes for sale.

When you are buying or selling property in today's Harrisburg PA real estate market, it's important to have confidence in your real estate professional. Don’s commitment as your Harrisburg PA REALTOR® is to provide you with the specialized real estate service you deserve.

When you are an informed buyer or seller, you'll make the best decisions for the most important purchase or sale in your lifetime. That's why Don’s goal is to keep you informed on trends in Harrisburg PA real estate. With property values continuing to rise, real estate is a sound investment for now and for the future.

As a local area expert with knowledge of Harrisburg PA area communities, Don’s objective is to work diligently to assist you in meeting your real estate goals.

If you are considering buying or selling a home or would just like to have additional information about real estate in your area, please don't hesitate to call me at (717) 657-8700, complete my online form, or e-mail me at don@donroth.com.

A Tale Of Two Markets!

Actually, we refer to one market – the new-home market. But we say two, because we refer to the new-home market now and the new-home market in the future.

As for the here and now, the market appears somewhat languid. New-home starts come in at 893,000 units on an annualized rate in June. This is 9.3% lower than the revised 985,000 units posted in May. As for the important single-family segment, starts come in at 575,000 units on an annualized rate, which is 9% lower than the number of units in May.

The good news is that the future new-home market appears more robust – at least that's our take from the latest Home Builder Sentiment Index .

Builder confidence for new single-family homes surpassed an important milestone in July, rising four points to a reading of 53. Anything above 50 indicates that builders are more positive than negative on the outlook for new-home activity. This is the first time since January that the index has crested above 50. This suggests we should look forward to more new-home construction and more new-home sales in coming months. Let's hope that's the case.

We say “hope” because we'd be more optimistic on a pick up in both new- and existing-home activity if we saw a pick up in purchase-mortgage activity. Unfortunately, weekly activity across the country is down, and not by an insignificant percentage. The Mortgage Bankers Association reports its purchase index fell 8% for the July 11 week, more than reversing a 4% gain in the prior week.

Of course, we offer our usual caveat: all markets are local. So, what occurs in any local market doesn't necessarily jibe with a national number. (For instance, a large slice of fewer housing starts in June was centered on the South.) Still, we would like to see more purchase activity, especially purchase activity driven by the owner-occupied buyer.

Fortunately, rates are still very favorable for anyone seeking financing. Bankrate.com's national survey has the 30-year fixed-rate conforming loan pegged at 4.3%, about where it has been for the past month. Freddie Mac's survey has the 30-year loan at 4.13%.

To be sure, mortgage rates have shown little inclination to go anywhere, but another month or two of 200,000+ monthly job gains could easily (and quickly) set rates on a path to higher ground.

Information provided by Jessica Regan.

Search all Harrisburg PA homes for sale.

When you are buying or selling property in today's Harrisburg PA real estate market, it's important to have confidence in your real estate professional. Don’s commitment as your Harrisburg PA REALTOR® is to provide you with the specialized real estate service you deserve.

When you are an informed buyer or seller, you'll make the best decisions for the most important purchase or sale in your lifetime. That's why Don’s goal is to keep you informed on trends in Harrisburg PA real estate. With property values continuing to rise, real estate is a sound investment for now and for the future.

As a local area expert with knowledge of Harrisburg PA area communities, Don’s objective is to work diligently to assist you in meeting your real estate goals.

If you are considering buying or selling a home or would just like to have additional information about real estate in your area, please don't hesitate to call me at (717) 657-8700, complete my online form, or e-mail me at don@donroth.com.

QE3 sounds like a luxury British ocean liner; it's actually an abbreviation for a third round of quantitative easing, which itself is a euphemism for the Federal Reserve pumping more money into the economy. On Thursday, the Fed said it would implement QE3 in the near future.

The mechanics of QE are straightforward: The Fed adds more money to the economy by buying mortgage-backed and U.S. Treasury securities from banks. The securities are paid for with new money the Fed conjures into existence. The Fed's demand for these securities drops the yield on these securities. These lower yields, in turn, are expected to produce lower mortgage lending rates, or at least sustain today's already low rates into the future. 

At least that's the theory. The problem is that price inflation fears – due to the new money – can rise. Should investors' inflation fears trump Fed demand for the aforementioned securities, that means mortgage lending rates could actually go up, thus thwarting the Fed's intended outcome.

In short, there is no sure thing. Many borrowers are waiting on the sideline, anticipating lower lending rates. We think that's a dangerous game, because even if QE3 lowers lending rates, we doubt they will lower them by a significant margin. On the other side of the coin, rates could easily go higher if investor concern switches to inflation from slow economic growth.

Courtesy of Jessica Regan.

Search all Harrisburg PA homes for sale.

When you are buying or selling property in today's Harrisburg PA real estate market, it's important to have confidence in your real estate professional. Don’s commitment as your Harrisburg PA REALTOR® is to provide you with the specialized real estate service you deserve.

When you are an informed buyer or seller, you'll make the best decisions for the most important purchase or sale in your lifetime. That's why Don’s goal is to keep you informed on trends in Harrisburg PA real estate. With property values continuing to rise, real estate is a sound investment for now and for the future.

As a local area expert with knowledge of Harrisburg PA area communities, Don’s objective is to work diligently to assist you in meeting your real estate goals.

If you are considering buying or selling a home or would just like to have additional information about real estate in your area, please don't hesitate to call me at (717) 657-8700, complete my online form, or e-mail me at don@donroth.com.