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Anticipation, Making Us Wait

by Don Roth


Dec. 14 is the date credit markets most anticipate. By 2:00 pm ET on Dec. 14, we’ll know if the Federal Reserve will raise the federal funds rate 25 basis points like it did on Dec. 16, 2015.

At this point, does it really matter?

We’re beginning to think not. Yields and interest rates have run higher over the past month. Last year at this time, we saw a similar run. Mortgage rates trended higher through much of Oct. 2015, but then they plateaued by early November.  By Dec. 2015, they were already trending lower, and they continued to trend mostly lower until early September.

You’ve likely heard the radio commercials: Lock in your mortgage rate now because the Fed is expected to raise interest rates in December. These commercials aren’t wrong; the Fed is expected to raise interest rates in December.  The question is, is the impending interest-rate hike already priced into mortgage rates?  We suspect that it is. Mortgage rates have already shown signs of plateauing (and even rolling over a bit) in the past week.

If we take past as prologue (and that’s not always a good idea), an argument can be forwarded that mortgage rates are unlikely to rise much higher. If we were to bet (again, not always a good idea), we would bet that mortgage rates won’t rise much higher, but neither will they fall much either.  A tight range, like the one maintained though August, could very well hold through the election.

Of course, that could all change after the election, so locking in a decent rate today wouldn’t be the worse decision a borrower could make.

Information provided by Jessica Regan.

Search all Harrisburg PA homes for sale.

When you are buying or selling property in today's Harrisburg PA real estate market, it's important to have confidence in your real estate professional. Don’s commitment as your Harrisburg PA REALTOR® is to provide you with the specialized real estate service you deserve.

When you are an informed buyer or seller, you'll make the best decisions for the most important purchase or sale in your lifetime. That's why Don’s goal is to keep you informed on trends in Harrisburg PA real estate. With property values continuing to rise, real estate is a sound investment for now and for the future.

As a local area expert with knowledge of Harrisburg PA area communities, Don’s objective is to work diligently to assist you in meeting your real estate goals.

If you are considering buying or selling a home or would just like to have additional information about real estate in your area, please don't hesitate to call me at (717) 657-8700, complete my online form, or e-mail me at don@donroth.com.

Harrisburg PA Mortgage Market Recap – October 24, 2016

by Don Roth


Still Strong and Steady

After such a strong surge in September, a little slippage should be expected.

Home builder sentiment slipped slightly, posting at 63 on the Wells Fargo/NAHB’s Sentiment Index for October. This was a two-point slip compared to the September reading of 65. That said, the September reading was a five-point surge over the August reading. Builders remain overwhelmingly optimistic. And they’re even more optimistic about future home sales: the future sales component of the index rose a point to post at 72.

Sentiment correlates positively with action. The action is still good, though the headline reading was misleading.

New-home starts fell 9% to a 1.047 million units on annualized rate in September. The headline number would appear to temper optimism. But when we look closer, we find that the drop is entirely related to the volatile multi-family component, where starts fell 38%. The good news is that the larger, more important single-family component was up a strong 8.1% to 783,000 units for the month.

Now that a growing cadre of younger buyers is finally taking to homeownership, home builder sentiment and activity should remain elevated as we head into 2017.

It’s always nice to have a report corroborated by other sources. Last week, we reported on the increase in millennial interest in homeownership. This week Realtor.com reports that first-timers (mostly the young) will compose 52% of prospective home buyers in 2017. Last year, the same survey found that only 33% of prospective buyers were young first-time buyers. In addition, Zillow compiled a survey of 13,000 respondents and found that half were under age 36. These younger buyers accounted for 47% of all purchases.

Of course, this is all good news for housing, both new and existing. It’s also good news for the economy at large. Housing activity – construction, sales, materials, furnishings, lending, retail, and other services – account for roughly 12% of gross domestic product. Housing, more than any market segment, has pushed the economy forward over the past five years.  Given the trend of younger first-time buyers entering the market, we expect housing to remain the lead engine on the economic train.

That more millenials are finally embracing homeownership is no surprise (though we expected the trend to take hold sooner than later). Despite the surfeit of reports expounding the benefits of renting, owning imparts important psychic benefits renting can’t match. Knowing that you can paint a wall, decorate a room, or hang a picture to your liking without defending your actions is what makes a house a home, and you can really only have home if you own the house.

 Information provided by Jessica Regan.

Search all Harrisburg PA homes for sale.

When you are buying or selling property in today's Harrisburg PA real estate market, it's important to have confidence in your real estate professional. Don’s commitment as your Harrisburg PA REALTOR® is to provide you with the specialized real estate service you deserve.

When you are an informed buyer or seller, you'll make the best decisions for the most important purchase or sale in your lifetime. That's why Don’s goal is to keep you informed on trends in Harrisburg PA real estate. With property values continuing to rise, real estate is a sound investment for now and for the future.

As a local area expert with knowledge of Harrisburg PA area communities, Don’s objective is to work diligently to assist you in meeting your real estate goals.

If you are considering buying or selling a home or would just like to have additional information about real estate in your area, please don't hesitate to call me at (717) 657-8700, complete my online form, or e-mail me at don@donroth.com.

6 Organizing Essentials to Buy Today

by Don Roth

If your house feels like it’s in a perpetual state of clutter, it may not be your fault. Have you ever dated the wrong person? You know, “it’s not you, it’s me?” Well, it’s not you, it’s the tools you’re using. If you’re using the wrong tools for the job, organization just isn’t going to happen.

To have a home that’s not only clean, but also totally organized, buy these six organizing essentials. (You’ll thank yourself later.)

For Your Spice Collection

This spice organizer looks simple… almost too simple. But looks can be deceiving – the tiered organizer is life-changing when it comes to spice organization. It’s sized to fit inside any cabinet and doesn’t require nails or screws to install.

By stacking your spices, you can get a full view of your spice setup and, best of all, you’ll never have to dig through the onion powder and oregano to get to the paprika again.

For Pots, Pans, Cookie Sheets and Cutting Boards

The secret to an envy-worthy kitchen isn’t beautiful granite or a massive fridge. It’s these cabinet organizers.

Your pots, pans and cutting boards may be hidden behind cabinet doors, but it makes a world of difference for your nightly cooking endeavors when they’re neatly stacked and separated. Bonus: You can set these sturdy babies right inside your cabinets, no installation is required.

For Brooms, Mops and Swiffers       

We love this gadget because it’s super easy to install, doesn’t use a lot of space and keeps your mops and brooms off of the floor (where they’ll can collect dirt and dust.)

For Bathroom Supplies and Styling Tools

Got a tiny bathroom? To maximize on storage space in the loo, invest in this ingenious slim slide-out shelf that can fit between your vanity and your shower. Tip: This organizer also works great between the washer and dryer or the refrigerator and cabinets.

For Toys, Books and Games

These colorful storage bins are perfect for picking up clutter, fast. They can hold toys, books, games and just about anything else you want to toss in and tuck away. Plus, they’re machine washable – unlike other fabric bins that will lose their shape if machine washed.

For Laundry Supplies         

A few of these baskets might actually make laundry bearable (no promises, though). Use one for stain removers, fabric softeners and detergents, and use another for lost laundry items like solo socks, loose change and bobby pins. Look at you, being all organized.

Information provided by BrightNest.com.

Search all Harrisburg PA homes for sale.

When you are buying or selling property in today's Harrisburg PA real estate market, it's important to have confidence in your real estate professional. Don’s commitment as your Harrisburg PA REALTOR® is to provide you with the specialized real estate service you deserve.

When you are an informed buyer or seller, you'll make the best decisions for the most important purchase or sale in your lifetime. That's why Don’s goal is to keep you informed on trends in Harrisburg PA real estate. With property values continuing to rise, real estate is a sound investment for now and for the future.

As a local area expert with knowledge of Harrisburg PA area communities, Don’s objective is to work diligently to assist you in meeting your real estate goals.

If you are considering buying or selling a home or would just like to have additional information about real estate in your area, please don't hesitate to call me at (717) 657-8700, complete my online form, or e-mail me at don@donroth.com.

Not All Debt Is Alike

by Don Roth

Much has been made about the rising level of student-loan debt. Today, outstanding student-loan debt stands at nearly $1.3 trillion. It’s natural to conclude that high student-loan debt correlates with the falling homeownership trend among millennials.

But perhaps the conclusion is unwarranted. Data gathered by Freddie Mac are inconclusive, and we’re not terribly surprised.

Student-loan debt and students aren’t homogeneous blobs. The absolute amount of the student-loan debt matters only in relationship to what the debt funded.  A student who accumulates $100,000 in student loans and graduates with a highly desirable bachelors degree in mechanical engineering will likely hit the ground running. The opportunity for high-paying employment the mechanical engineering degree produced was well worth the $100,000 in student-loan debt. The $100,000 was, therefore, a legitimate investment: It produced higher annual cash flow.

On the other hand, if the same $100,000 funded a degree that would raise annual cash flow only minimally (or not at all), then the $100,000 wouldn’t be an investment. In this case, the $100,000 really funded current consumption, which is rarely a good use of debt. 

The good news is that Freddie Mac has found that many millennials are using debt properly – to invest in degrees that raise annual cash flow. Freddie Mac found a 61% probability someone with a bachelors degree will own a home compared with 30% for someone with no degree. Better yet, Freddie Mac finds that educated young people, millenials in particular, still desire to own a home.  

Freddie Mac’s findings are yet another reason we don’t fret about today’s low homeownership rate. To the contrary, we view it as pent up demand that will lead to higher future sales.

Information provided by Jessica Regan.

Search all Harrisburg PA homes for sale.

When you are buying or selling property in today's Harrisburg PA real estate market, it's important to have confidence in your real estate professional. Don’s commitment as your Harrisburg PA REALTOR® is to provide you with the specialized real estate service you deserve.

When you are an informed buyer or seller, you'll make the best decisions for the most important purchase or sale in your lifetime. That's why Don’s goal is to keep you informed on trends in Harrisburg PA real estate. With property values continuing to rise, real estate is a sound investment for now and for the future.

As a local area expert with knowledge of Harrisburg PA area communities, Don’s objective is to work diligently to assist you in meeting your real estate goals.

If you are considering buying or selling a home or would just like to have additional information about real estate in your area, please don't hesitate to call me at (717) 657-8700, complete my online form, or e-mail me at don@donroth.com.

Harrisburg PA Mortgage Market Recap – October 17, 2016

by Don Roth


Sometimes Average Is Good Enough

The employment data for September were released last Friday. The numbers were of the shoulder-shrug variety.

Payrolls increased by 156,000 for the month, considerably lower than the 200,000-or-more monthly gains that we had seen earlier in the year. As for the unemployment rate, it actually increased, drifting up to 5% from 4.9%. Few economists were alarmed, though. The unemployment rate rose because more discouraged workers sought employment. (Discouraged workers aren’t counted in the official unemployment tally.)

The September employment numbers should have been much ado about nothing, except they weren’t. The numbers were just good enough to convince financial markets that it’s “game on” –  an interest-rate increase is on the way.

The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note rose to 1.8%, the highest it has been since mid-June. The 10-year note, in turn, leads long-term mortgage rates. The 30-year fixed-rate loan continues to move higher. Depending on the day, a quote of 3.5% on the 30-year loan can still be found. But more often, 3.625% is likely for a top-tier conventional loan.

Election Day is Nov. 8; Federal Reserve officials meet again on Nov. 2. We’d be shocked if the Nov. 2 meeting produced an interest-rate increase. Most people concur with us. Traders in federal funds rate futures contracts are betting only an 11% chance of a rate increase at the next meeting. As for December, that’s a different story. These same traders are betting a 70% chance a rate increase will occur then.

With more market participants anticipating a rate increase, it’s only natural that rates would rise ahead of the blessed event. Markets are forward-looking entities. Changes in the perception of what the future holds moves market prices, including interest rates.

Of course, we’ve been down this road before. Last year around this time, mortgage rates began to drift higher as the market priced in a rate increase for December. But once the rate increase was announced, mortgage rates plateaued and then drifted lower through the first half of 2016. Those lows held until a few weeks ago.

As Mark Twain observed, history doesn’t repeat, but it frequently rhymes. Should the Fed raise the federal funds rate in December, the increase will likely be no more than 25 basis points – the same increase as last year. (As a percentage, this next increase will actually be less than last year’s increase. The Fed doubled the fed funds rate last year; this next increase, it will increase it by half.)

Given sluggish global economic growth, 25 basis points might be all we see until December 2017. And if history really does rhyme, we could see mortgage rates drift lower again. That means a 3.25% quote on a conventional 30-year loan could again be in the cards for mid-2017.

Information provided by Jessica Regan.

Search all Harrisburg PA homes for sale.

When you are buying or selling property in today's Harrisburg PA real estate market, it's important to have confidence in your real estate professional. Don’s commitment as your Harrisburg PA REALTOR® is to provide you with the specialized real estate service you deserve.

When you are an informed buyer or seller, you'll make the best decisions for the most important purchase or sale in your lifetime. That's why Don’s goal is to keep you informed on trends in Harrisburg PA real estate. With property values continuing to rise, real estate is a sound investment for now and for the future.

As a local area expert with knowledge of Harrisburg PA area communities, Don’s objective is to work diligently to assist you in meeting your real estate goals.

If you are considering buying or selling a home or would just like to have additional information about real estate in your area, please don't hesitate to call me at (717) 657-8700, complete my online form, or e-mail me at don@donroth.com.

Is the Pendulum Swinging to the Buy Side?

by Don Roth

CalculatedRiskBlog.com posted an interesting statement by an Oregon government economist on housing this week. The economist explained the shift to renting away from buying that has occurred over the past decade. His analysis focused on household finances, demography, and preferences – all of which have supported renter-market growth in recent years. (Homeownership is at a multi-decade low.)

This same economist also said that new data point to a change. It appears that the pendulum could swing back to ownership, and it could swing back sooner than conventional opinion expects.

A drop-off in renting momentum is one reason. The number of renters ticked up 0.1% nationwide last year. That’s still a gain for renting, but the year-over-year change was minimal compared to previous years. Renting momentum has slowed considerably. This could indicate that 2015 was the peak year for renting. What’s more, demography would support that contention.

The 30-to-39 age group is an important home-buying group. This age group will increase significantly over the next 10 years. Just as important, this group is growing in affluence. More of them have gained the financial wherewithal to buy a home. Just as important, they want to buy a home. Surveys from Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and other sources continually show that the vast majority of people, including those populating the younger generations, aspire to own a home. 

With this data in mind, we see no reason housing sales and single-family construction shouldn’t continue to trend higher in the coming years.

Information provided by Jessica Regan.

Search all Harrisburg PA homes for sale.

When you are buying or selling property in today's Harrisburg PA real estate market, it's important to have confidence in your real estate professional. Don’s commitment as your Harrisburg PA REALTOR® is to provide you with the specialized real estate service you deserve.

When you are an informed buyer or seller, you'll make the best decisions for the most important purchase or sale in your lifetime. That's why Don’s goal is to keep you informed on trends in Harrisburg PA real estate. With property values continuing to rise, real estate is a sound investment for now and for the future.

As a local area expert with knowledge of Harrisburg PA area communities, Don’s objective is to work diligently to assist you in meeting your real estate goals.

If you are considering buying or selling a home or would just like to have additional information about real estate in your area, please don't hesitate to call me at (717) 657-8700, complete my online form, or e-mail me at don@donroth.com.

Harrisburg PA Mortgage Market Recap – October 10, 2016

by Don Roth

 

Longing for the Good Ole Days

Last week, we presented a minor lament on the difficulty in forecasting interest rates. Then, of course, we offered a forecast: We didn’t believe that the Federal Reserve would raise the federal funds rate – the base rate for most other interest rates – no sooner than December, if not later.

We also implied there was a good chance that mortgage rates would hang low for a while. That is, they would hang in the same low, tight range that reigned through most of August (when quotes on best-execution 30-year loans were bound between 3.375% and 3.5%). As we write, we’re more likely to see best-execution quotes of 3.5% or above.

It’s no surprise that mortgage rates moved higher; many debt-security yields expanded this week, most notably the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note. As you may know, the 10-year note holds significant sway over mortgage-backed securities, which hold significant sway over mortgage rates (long-term rates in particular).

The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note spiked 10 basis points on Tuesday after Richmond Federal Reserve Bank President Jeffrey Lacker added his support for raising the fed funds rate sooner than later. The pro-interest-rate-hike contingent of Fed officials is growing. Several regional Fed bank presidents (like Lacker) now believe that implementing a series of small interest-rate increases would be good for the economy, even if the economy continues to post sub-standard growth. (By the way, Fed Chair Janet Yellen isn’t one of the supporters.)

A rate hike this December appears more likely this week than last week. Traders in fed funds rate futures contracts now are betting a 64% chance a rate increase will occur in December. (Some are even betting there’s a chance for a rate increase in early November at the next Fed meeting.)

This is all rather new in the annals of the Federal Reserve’s 113-year history. That is, Fed officials publicly guiding markets on interest-rate policy.

Before the 2008 financial crisis, Fed officials were a reticent lot. There was little foreshadowing that a rate increase or decrease would occur or what the amount would be (though you could glean what Fed officials could do by vetting the same data they vet.) In the good ole days, before the 2008 financial crisis, Fed officials were mostly supporting players on the financial stage. Today, they’re lead actors: Any utterance by a Fed official produces a meaningful swing in interest rates.

Accurately forecasting mortgage rates is a difficult enough proposition. It’s all the more difficult when a Fed official can change the outlook with an off-hand remark to the media. How often over the past three years has a Fed official hinted that a rate increase was imminent only to see the rate increase postponed? More than we can count.

That said, as difficult as it may be, we’ll keep forecasting anyway.

 Information provided by Jessica Regan.

Search all Harrisburg PA homes for sale.

When you are buying or selling property in today's Harrisburg PA real estate market, it's important to have confidence in your real estate professional. Don’s commitment as your Harrisburg PA REALTOR® is to provide you with the specialized real estate service you deserve.

When you are an informed buyer or seller, you'll make the best decisions for the most important purchase or sale in your lifetime. That's why Don’s goal is to keep you informed on trends in Harrisburg PA real estate. With property values continuing to rise, real estate is a sound investment for now and for the future.

As a local area expert with knowledge of Harrisburg PA area communities, Don’s objective is to work diligently to assist you in meeting your real estate goals.

If you are considering buying or selling a home or would just like to have additional information about real estate in your area, please don't hesitate to call me at (717) 657-8700, complete my online form, or e-mail me at don@donroth.com.

10 Closet Faux Pas You Should Avoid

by Don Roth


Your closet is actually a lot like a boyfriend. It keeps you warm. It’s (almost) always there for you. It never picks up after itself. And it doesn’t like to do laundry.

Also, you can make closet mistakes. They’re different from boyfriend mistakes (getting passive aggressive with your closet isn’t really a thing), but they’re mistakes nonetheless.

Here are ten likely culprits – some have to do with the closet itself, and others are questionable fashion choices you might be making.

Acting Like You Only Have One Shelf

Turn one shelf into two by using storage boxes as a base. You’ll make room for purses, shoes and more piles of clothes on top.

Continuing to Keep Skirts from College in There

You looked great in that miniskirt, you really did. And your legs would look fantastic in it now if you put it on. But let’s be honest, you’re not going to. Take all those nostalgic outfits from your undergrad days and get rid of ‘em.

Mixing Your Clothing Piles 

Sure, it may seem fun and exciting to stack those jeans right alongside your sweaters. But it’s an organizing disaster! Try these pile dividers for your closet if the temptation to mix and match is problematic.

Storing "Aspirational" Outfits That Don't Fit

It’s tempting to get a pair of jeans or a dress that you’ll diet-or-exercise your way into. But we don’t think it’s a great habit. First of all, it means you’re taking up precious closet space with clothing you’re not wearing. Second, you should wear things you feel comfortable and beautiful in now! 

Limiting Your Clothing Storage to Just Your Closet

If you’re running low on space, you can use stacked suitcases for extra storage. If it’s a stylish suitcase, you can use it as a bedside table or a table at the foot of the bed. Keep accessories, out-of-season clothes, or any items you don’t need every day in your suitcase storage.

Settling for a Single Level of Hangers

You can use a pull tab from a soda can to layer hangers. If you’re not a fan of soda, you can use these hangers for your shirts and dresses and these hangers for your skirts and pants. Cha ching – one closet becomes two!

Letting Your Jewelry Get Knotted

Jewelry storage requires uber separation. This clear-pocket hanging storage will make your life easier on the daily.

Tolerating Empty Wall Space

Capitalize on every empty wall in your closet. Small hanging racks for purses, hats or coats are a great way to fill the space across from your hanging clothes or in the inside of the closet door. You could also hang necklaces on a nail.

Thinking Tube Tops Are a Good Idea

There’s just too much risk involved here, ladies. And remember, the guy who invented strapless bras never had to wear one, which is probably why they're so uncomfortable.

Pretending You Can See in the Dark

If you can’t see a piece of clothing, you probably won’t put it on. And a lot of closets suffer from bad lighting. If this sounds like you, throw an extra light on the wall. These lights stick to the wall so they’re a good choice.

Information provided by BrightNest.com.

Search all Harrisburg PA homes for sale.

When you are buying or selling property in today's Harrisburg PA real estate market, it's important to have confidence in your real estate professional. Don’s commitment as your Harrisburg PA REALTOR® is to provide you with the specialized real estate service you deserve.

When you are an informed buyer or seller, you'll make the best decisions for the most important purchase or sale in your lifetime. That's why Don’s goal is to keep you informed on trends in Harrisburg PA real estate. With property values continuing to rise, real estate is a sound investment for now and for the future.

As a local area expert with knowledge of Harrisburg PA area communities, Don’s objective is to work diligently to assist you in meeting your real estate goals.

If you are considering buying or selling a home or would just like to have additional information about real estate in your area, please don't hesitate to call me at (717) 657-8700, complete my online form, or e-mail me at don@donroth.com.

6 Pro Tips to Make Window Cleaning Easier

by Don Roth

 

Look out of your window right now. What do you see?

Streaks? Dirt? Grime? All three? Then it’s time to give your windows a quick clean. This may seem like a pain, but it’s a high-reward chore. Not only will your windows look great, they’re also one of the top five surfaces that make us feel happiest when they’re clean. We’re guessing it’s the extra sunshine!

Need a little more incentive? Here are a few tricks of the trade to make window cleaning easier:

1. Buff Scratches with Toothpaste

If you have tiny scratches in your glass, toothpaste can make them disappear (just make sure you grab a brand with baking soda). Apply a small amount of toothpaste to a soft cloth, then gently rub the scratch for about 30 seconds. Wipe it away with a clean cloth and kiss your scratch goodbye!

2. Wash the Interior First

Unless you have indoor rain, the outside of your windows is going to be a lot dirtier. To prevent nasty cleaning supplies (and potentially a new, inside mess), tackle the interior side of your windows first.

3. Use Coffee Filters

Paper towels tend to leave a messy, cloudy shine. Use coffee filters instead!  Due to their texture, they leave a streak-free shine. Bonus: Coffee filters cost about $1 for a pack of 100!  

4. Skip the Store-Bought Cleaner

Instead of buying a cleaner at the store, make one at home by mixing equal parts vinegar and warm water. We recommend adding one cup of each ingredient at a time. The vinegar will break down any residue or grease on the surface of the window.  

5. Choose a Cloudy Day

If you pick a cloudy day to clean, your windows will look cleaner! This is because sunshine can actually cause streaks (the warmth dries the glass too quickly).

6. Don’t Ignore the Blinds

Dust loves blinds like bees love honey. To keep dust from piling up immediately after you clean, use an antistatic spray (Static Guard is a good option) on the window blinds right after you clean them.

Information provided by BrightNest.com.

Search all Harrisburg PA homes for sale.

When you are buying or selling property in today's Harrisburg PA real estate market, it's important to have confidence in your real estate professional. Don’s commitment as your Harrisburg PA REALTOR® is to provide you with the specialized real estate service you deserve.

When you are an informed buyer or seller, you'll make the best decisions for the most important purchase or sale in your lifetime. That's why Don’s goal is to keep you informed on trends in Harrisburg PA real estate. With property values continuing to rise, real estate is a sound investment for now and for the future.

As a local area expert with knowledge of Harrisburg PA area communities, Don’s objective is to work diligently to assist you in meeting your real estate goals.

If you are considering buying or selling a home or would just like to have additional information about real estate in your area, please don't hesitate to call me at (717) 657-8700, complete my online form, or e-mail me at don@donroth.com.

Low Again, Naturally

by Don Roth


What’s as difficult to do today as it was 3,000 years ago?

There are multiple answers, of course, but we have one in mind: predict the direction of interest rates. The difficulty is clearly explicated in the definitive interest-rate exegesis A History of Interest Rates by Sidney Homer and Eugene Sylla. Vetting reams of economic data apparently offer no more insight to the direction of interest rates today than the tossing of chicken bones on the floor did in 1,000 BC.

Just last month, interest-rate-increase chatter was rising in both pitch and volume. Traders were betting as high as 25% odds that Federal Reserve officials would raise interest rates at their September meeting. They were giving 60% odds that rates would be higher by the end of December.  After all, more Fed officials have publicly opined that interest rates need to rise.

But here we are heading into October and the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note is down roughly 10 basis points in the past week. Quotes on many mortgage products are down as well. Indeed, mortgage rates are back down to the tight, low range that prevailed through most of August. Traders now give no better than 50/50 odds that we’ll see a rate increase by the end of December.

At the beginning of the year, the “smart” money (which we weren’t a party to) was betting two, if not more, interest-rate increases would occur before Dec. 31. At the risk of sounding annoyingly boastful, we were skeptical that any rate increases were imminent. One increase might come, but at the last moment, but no more. As we head into the home stretch, even one increase might be too many, especially after the International Monetary Fund recently lowered its global-growth forecast and the World Trade Organization recently lowered its global-trade forecast for 2017.

The conventional thought is that the Fed has to raise interest rates sometime. But that doesn’t mean that “sometime” must be sooner than later, or that later need not reside in the distant future.

Information provided by Jessica Regan.

Search all Harrisburg PA homes for sale.

When you are buying or selling property in today's Harrisburg PA real estate market, it's important to have confidence in your real estate professional. Don’s commitment as your Harrisburg PA REALTOR® is to provide you with the specialized real estate service you deserve.

When you are an informed buyer or seller, you'll make the best decisions for the most important purchase or sale in your lifetime. That's why Don’s goal is to keep you informed on trends in Harrisburg PA real estate. With property values continuing to rise, real estate is a sound investment for now and for the future.

As a local area expert with knowledge of Harrisburg PA area communities, Don’s objective is to work diligently to assist you in meeting your real estate goals.

If you are considering buying or selling a home or would just like to have additional information about real estate in your area, please don't hesitate to call me at (717) 657-8700, complete my online form, or e-mail me at don@donroth.com.

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