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Absorption Rate - What Does It Mean?

by Don Roth

Many times when someone is looking to either buy or sell a home they will ask how long has that home been on the market and I will give them the answer. But more important, in my opinion, is what the activity like in an area or a price range. This chart gives an overview of what is happening in both Dauphin and Cumberland counties in the greater Harrisburg PA real estate market.

absorption rate

The absorption rate is calculated by dividing the number of homes sold in a specific period into the number of homes for sale. The term 'balanced market' has been determined to mean that you have a housing supply of six months in a price range. And if there is less than a six month supply it becomes a 'sellers’ market' and over six months is a 'buyers’ market.'

This is a good rule of thumb to look into whether you a buyers or seller but remember other items such as taxes and insurance can impact the value of a home and what a buyer is willing to pay for a home. The absorption rate can influence a buying decision so do not hesitate to ask because although it is a snapshot it can in some instances be an indication of things to come in the future.

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When you are buying or selling property in today's Harrisburg PA real estate market, it's important to have confidence in your real estate professional. Don’s commitment as your Harrisburg PA REALTOR® is to provide you with the specialized real estate service you deserve.

When you are an informed buyer or seller, you'll make the best decisions for the most important purchase or sale in your lifetime. That's why Don’s goal is to keep you informed on trends in Harrisburg PA real estate. With property values continuing to rise, real estate is a sound investment for now and for the future.

As a local area expert with knowledge of Harrisburg PA area communities, Don’s objective is to work diligently to assist you in meeting your real estate goals.

If you are considering buying or selling a home or would just like to have additional information about real estate in your area, please don't hesitate to call me at (717) 657-8700, complete my online form, or e-mail me at don@donroth.com.

 

Central Pennsylvania Real Estate Report

by Don Roth

Central Pennsylvania Real Estate Report

 

Average Sales Price
West Shore
School District
October 2009
October 2010
Days on Market
Camp Hill
$189,869
$156,151
79/116
Cumberland Valley
$234,894
$271,152
106/64
West Shore
$812,266
$169,591
88/61
Northern
$231,593
$201,446
134/60
Mechanicsburg
$190,350
$204,067
58/81
East Pennsboro
$178,055
$198,450
62/102
East Shore
Central Dauphin
$176,217
$209,175
92/123
Derry Township
$285,399
$281,982
62/99
Harrisburg
$ 83,577
$ 65,564
100/84
Lower Dauphin
$199,019
$261,211
85/72
Middletown
$141,258
$152,164
80/124
Steel High
$ 77,103
$ 74,450

87/182

Susquehanna Township
$176,968
$150,182
70/70

 

Average Sales Price
West Shore
School District
November 2009
November 2010
Days on Market
Camp Hill
$201,900
$148,980
79/104
Cumberland Valley
$248,639
$277,533
68/110
West Shore
$200,547
$181,043
58/107
Northern
$228,233
$194,650
100/57
Mechanicsburg
$179,385
$157,319
92/69
East Pennsboro
$151,279
$186,271
75/68
East Shore
Central Dauphin
$177,627
$148,780
79/104
Derry Township
$222,578
$288,382
131/136
Harrisburg
$ 81,986
$ 59,497
64/68
Lower Dauphin
$209,484
$229,143
99/84
Middletown
$112,700
$139,500
60/87
Steel High
$ 108,967
$ 64,738

113/149

Susquehanna Township
$160,150
$157,266
54/96

 

Average Sales Price
West Shore
School District
December 2009
December 2010
Days on Market
Camp Hill
$159,725
$215,883
174/63
Cumberland Valley
$252,226
$275,893
111/115
West Shore
$194,431
$178,015
72/95
Northern
$199,756
$175,307
80/68
Mechanicsburg
$188,229
$226,874
60/110
East Pennsboro
$164,392
$138,260
55/93
East Shore
Central Dauphin
$182,435
$167,787
65/80
Derry Township
$289,291
$189,216
130/103
Harrisburg
$ 69,958
$ 62,138
120/135
Lower Dauphin
$212,463
$274,087
70/54
Middletown
$122,829
$154,688
52/137
Steel High
$ 70,667
$ 48,000

137/78

Susquehanna Township
$164,504
$153,279
69/240

If there is one subject that is constantly discussed, it is the state of the real estate market in the Greater Harrisburg area. I am always asked are homes selling and what sales range is the strongest. The short answer is that homes continue to sell in our market, but they are taking a little longer to sell than what we have experienced is the past few years and that trend probably will continue into the first half of 2011. Homes priced in the low to mid $100,000s are selling the best, if you will but we must remember there are traditionally more homes in this range than any other price range. But homes in all price ranges continue to sell in our market. We must remember that some of the unfortunate news that we hear about in some areas of the country are not being experienced by this market to the degree that other areas have experienced. Yes there has been a slowdown in sales and increases in foreclosures and short sales in this market and that trend will again continue in the near future.

Is there good news in the Harrisburg real estate market? Absolutely, mortgage rates, although they have increased recently, are still below 5% and most likely will increase slightly in the months ahead. Additionally, the average home sales price has held up remarkably well and in my opinion that will continue. And lastly if you are looking to purchase a home there is a great selection of homes to choose from in all price ranges. We will most likely never see the frenzy that we saw a few years back, but I have been in this business for over 19 years and we will see the normalcy of the early 2000s and we will experience excellent home sales numbers with appreciating, not depreciation average home sale prices. No the glass is not half full yet but we are getting closer. May you have a Happy and Prosperous 2011.

If you have any real estate questions please contact me at Don@DonRoth.com and if you would like to see the list of available homes for sale visit my web site www.DonRoth.com and click on the search listings tab and search away.

Central Pennsylvania Housing Statistics, January 2009

by Don Roth

The housing statistics for the suburban Harrisburg, Pennsylvania are in and the results show that there is still some decline in real estate sales in the area. The number of homes sold in 2009 declined by 20% compared to the same period in 2008, and the area saw a decrease in the average sales price of 7% in the same period. The sales results cover all of Dauphin (except Harrisburg), Cumberland and Perry Counties and portions of Lancaster, Lebanon and York Counties. These results continue the trend the area experienced for the last half of 2008.

But there is good news on the horizon since the number of pending sales (sold although not yet settled) increased from December 2008 to the end of January 2009 by approximately 9%. And many of us are seeing increased buyer activity and additional properly priced homes come onto the market. In addition, there is some positive news out of Washington to assist both home buyers and sellers for 2009. In November 2008, The National Association of Realtors® put forth a recommendation that the $7500 tax credit for first time home buyers be expanded to all home buyers and that the tax credit be replaced with just a plain credit, meaning that there would not be any repayment vehicle attached for any buyer. This idea has taken form in Washington and it has a good chance of becoming part of the President’s Stimulus Package working its way through Congress. And there also appears that Congress may look favorably on crafting a mortgage program where mortgage rates could go as low as 4 or 4 1/2% this year.

So when looking into the future I see better times ahead for both home buyers and home sellers. It will not happen overnight but the landscape is looking much brighter for people that are looking into real estate. STAY TUNED.

Greater Harrisburg, PA Real Estate Report

by Don Roth

The real estate market is really bad and no one is able to sell their house. Sellers are losing money on their homes or every home that is selling is a foreclosure, and those homes are depressing the values of the homes around it. How many times have we seen something similar in the paper or on the nightly news?

Well the market in Central Pennsylvania from Carlisle to Hershey and in Dauphin, Cumberland, Perry and northern York Counties has changed, but the news isn’t all bad. Yes, the number of sold homes has decreased in 2008 compared to 2007 and 2006. The number of sold homes has decreased by about 30% during the mid-May to mid-June 2008 time period and the average sales price had declined $203 per home, but the AVERAGE SALES PRICE in 2008 is HIGHER by about $3000 compared to the same period of 2006. And although sales are down right now, this trend will reverse itself in time. Yet when we see the numbers of 20% decrease or more of valuations in states like California, Arizona, Nevada and Florida, the above numbers give us the realization that local Central Pennsylvania market will rebound on firm footing. “It’s a ‘back-to-basics’ market,” says PAR consulting economist Austin Jaffe, Ph.D., chair of the Department of Insurance and Real Estate at the Smeal College of Business at Penn State University. “The era of easy money and exotic mortgages never took hold among homebuyers in the Commonwealth, so prices in Pennsylvania never increased as much or as quickly in other markets. There’s no reason to expect that prices will fall as much or as rapidly here.” “This is the beginning of a new period in the housing market - or a new ‘old’ period where consumers buy homes to live in and use as long-term investments, not as a get-rich-quick scheme,” adds Jaffe.

This real estate market, as far back as I can remember, never followed the substantial increases that some national markets experienced and therefore never experienced the falling of the cliff syndrome when these or similar markets corrected. Whether you live in Derry Township, the city of Harrisburg, Hampden Township or Lower Paxton Township, you will see a rebound in activity and an increased valuation for your homes in the future. I have been asked by many and they say that they want to move up to a larger home, but the value of their home may have decreased. That may be true. However, before they could purchase the next home, they had to sell their existing home but they still had to find a buyer. Now despite what you hear that there is no available credit for home buyers – FALSE – the lenders along with some of the governmental agencies have or are working on new programs to assist buyers in arranging financing packages for buyers to purchase homes. The credit standards are higher than in past years, but there is money available for you and your family – so take advantage and don’t let the negativity of the press prevent you from buying your next home. You and I cannot stop the constant beat of the national market, but I will on a regular basis give you the real news in our local market.

If you have any real estate related questions, or if you are considering buying or selling a home, do not hesitate to contact me. I can be reached at 717-579-2879 or via email at don@donroth.com or view the information at www.DonRoth.com.

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