Real Estate Information Archive

What a difference a month makes. In September, homebuilder mood was in the doldrums, where it has been for most of the year. In October, that mood turned noticeably positive, with the homebuilder index jumping four points to 18 – the highest posting in nearly 18 months.

There is still a long way to go before homebuilders approach the heady days of a few years ago, but at least the market is progressing. Builders began work on an annual rate of 658,000 houses in September, a 15-percent increase over August's starts and the most since April 2010. Much of the increased activity was centered on multifamily homes, which surged 51.3 percent. However, work on single-family homes also increased, 1.7 percent, to an annual rate of 425,000 units.

The National Association of Home Builders, which compiles data for the homebuilder index, warns that builders face pricing pressure from foreclosed properties. The good news is that foreclosures appear less onerous than they did a year ago. At the same time, homebuilders are adding to supply at a record low rate. In other words, the economics of home building are much more encouraging than they were earlier in the year.

The economics of the existing-home market continue to adhere to the recent past. Total inventory declined 2 percent to 3.48 million homes at the end of September, with the sales rate declining 3 percent to 4.91 million units. This came as no surprise; August's sales were exceptionally strong and a slight drop off in the sales pace was expected.

Homes that were purchased over the past two months have been financed with mortgage rates that were prevalent during the youth of the purchaser's parents. In the past couple weeks, though, rates have been trending higher and are up around a quarter percentage point from where they were a fortnight ago. That said, mortgage financing is still a very good deal.

But will mortgage financing become a better deal? Many in the industry think so. We are less sure, especially when factoring in growing price inflation. Overall producer prices are up nearly 7 percent this year, while the core rate, which excludes energy and food, is up 2.5 percent. On the consumer side, overall prices are up 3.9 percent, while core prices are up 2 percent.

The Federal Reserve is trying to hold mortgage rates low by buying longer-term Treasury and mortgage-agency debt. Problem is, the market has been pushing back in recent weeks, as evinced by the spike in 10-year U.S. Treasury note yields. Bottom line, the falling mortgage-rate trend is much less a sure thing than it was a month ago.

Courtesy of Jessica Regan.

Search all Harrisburg PA homes for sale.

When you are buying or selling property in today's Harrisburg PA real estate market, it's important to have confidence in your real estate professional. Don’s commitment as your Harrisburg PA REALTOR® is to provide you with the specialized real estate service you deserve.

When you are an informed buyer or seller, you'll make the best decisions for the most important purchase or sale in your lifetime. That's why Don’s goal is to keep you informed on trends in Harrisburg PA real estate. With property values continuing to rise, real estate is a sound investment for now and for the future.

As a local area expert with knowledge of Harrisburg PA area communities, Don’s objective is to work diligently to assist you in meeting your real estate goals.

If you are considering buying or selling a home or would just like to have additional information about real estate in your area, please don't hesitate to call me at (717) 657-8700, complete my online form, or e-mail me at don@donroth.com.

Mortgage Market Debate It's no secret that a lot of mortgage lending is in government-backed loans. Nationally, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and the FHA back nine in 10 new mortgages. The federal government is looking to pull back and see if more private investors and lenders can be lured into the market.

There are legitimate concerns with a prospective federal pull back. There is the possibility of reduced available credit, thus leading to fewer sales and lower home prices. We've already seen some reduction in volume in higher priced homes when limits on loans backed by Fannie and Freddie declined at the beginning of October.

There is also the concern that sellers will find that fewer potential buyers qualify to purchase their properties. Less liberal down payments and lower loan limits could also hamstring trade-up buyers who want to tap their home equity as a down payment for their new residence.

Here's the conundrum: If we went to return to a more market-driven lending environment, we have to attract private investment, which means rates would have to rise. Private lenders and investors require a greater return than public sources of funds. It's worth noting, though, that many private lenders are flush with money they could put to work. What's more, private lenders and investors will add diversity to the market, which it is currently lacking.

The point is, we can see the mortgage market changing. We can't say whether it will be a net positive in the short term, but we think it raises the uncertainly level enough for borrowers to seriously consider taking advantage of the mortgage market as it is today.

Courtesy of Jessica Regan.

Search all Harrisburg PA homes for sale.

When you are buying or selling property in today's Harrisburg PA real estate market, it's important to have confidence in your real estate professional. Don’s commitment as your Harrisburg PA REALTOR® is to provide you with the specialized real estate service you deserve.

When you are an informed buyer or seller, you'll make the best decisions for the most important purchase or sale in your lifetime. That's why Don’s goal is to keep you informed on trends in Harrisburg PA real estate. With property values continuing to rise, real estate is a sound investment for now and for the future.

As a local area expert with knowledge of Harrisburg PA area communities, Don’s objective is to work diligently to assist you in meeting your real estate goals.

If you are considering buying or selling a home or would just like to have additional information about real estate in your area, please don't hesitate to call me at (717) 657-8700, complete my online form, or e-mail me at don@donroth.com.

We've reported frequently on the encouraging data on home prices. The most recent encouraging data comes courtesy of Zillow, which shows that home prices inched 0.1 percent higher in August, with the average home price moving to $172,600. Zillow's data also show that the national foreclosure rate dropped to 9.2 homes out of every 10,000 homes, down from 10.9 homes out of every 10,000 in 2010.

Unfortunately, the good vibes on pricing and foreclosures were tempered by a warning that foreclosures will accelerate once the controversial robo-signing imbroglio passes. In fact, Zillow believes foreclosure inventory will pressure home prices and that prices won't bottom until 2012 “at the earliest.”It's possible we could see national average and median home prices fall. Locally, prices could just as easily fall, stagnate, or rise. In fact, a rise might be more in the offing for many local markets. After all, national data is skewed by a few regions – Nevada , Arizona , Central Florida and Central California . Overall, we still see prices firming and rising in many markets, though that trend might not be reflected in national numbers.

As for mortgage rates, we can say categorically that they have been rising nationally and locally since last Friday, thanks in part to an employment report that showed the economy created more jobs in September than most economists had expected. In many markets, rates were up 20 basis points on the 30-year fixed-rate loan. This shouldn't come as a surprise; the yield on the 10-year US Treasury note – the foundation for long-term mortgages – has risen 35 basis-points over the past 10 days.

To be sure, mortgage rates could reverse course and return to the long-term down trend, but there is a real danger to a strategy predicated on returning to the long-term trend in a market that has been trending higher; that is the obvious: the short-term trend might not reverse.

Another danger is supply and demand. Falling mortgage rates do stimulate demand, but if supply isn't rising at an accommodating pace, there is no guarantee that an ultra-low mortgage rate will be filled. Loans, like all good and services, are rationed by price. If you can get a higher price for your product, you get it.In short, if someone is satisfied with his rate, the best strategy is to ignore the daily vicissitudes and lock. Regret is a tough emotion to overcome, particularly in a market that is showing signs of wanting to move higher.

Courtesy of Jessica Regan.

Search all Harrisburg PA homes for sale.

When you are buying or selling property in today's Harrisburg PA real estate market, it's important to have confidence in your real estate professional. Don’s commitment as your Harrisburg PA REALTOR® is to provide you with the specialized real estate service you deserve.

When you are an informed buyer or seller, you'll make the best decisions for the most important purchase or sale in your lifetime. That's why Don’s goal is to keep you informed on trends in Harrisburg PA real estate. With property values continuing to rise, real estate is a sound investment for now and for the future.

As a local area expert with knowledge of Harrisburg PA area communities, Don’s objective is to work diligently to assist you in meeting your real estate goals.

If you are considering buying or selling a home or would just like to have additional information about real estate in your area, please don't hesitate to call me at (717) 657-8700, complete my online form, or e-mail me at don@donroth.com.

New home sales continue to skim bottom, but at least they are not burrowing lower. New home sales posted at an annual rate of 295,000 units in August, which actually beat the consensus estimate for 288,000 units.

Pricing is the new and more troubling issue. Year-over-year, new home prices have been holding firm or improving in many markets. It appears that trend has reversed, at least at the national level. In August, the national median price fell 7.7 percent to $209,100, while the national average price dropped 8.5 percent to $246,000.

The supply of new homes remains low at a mere 162,000 units. However, supply relative to sales has risen to 6.6 months at the current sales pace compared to 6.5 months in July. To say the sledding has been tough for homebuilders over the past two years is to understate the obvious. Unfortunately, it appears the sledding won't get any less tough any time soon.

The sledding could also be getting a little tougher for existing home sales. The NAR reports that fewer buyers signed contracts to purchase existing homes in August, as the pending home sales index fell 1.2 percent to 88.6. We were encouraged by the spike in existing home sales in August, but we don't believe that spike will materialize into a sustained higher sales trend – at least for the near future.

This isn't to say we are down on housing. At least one supply concern appears to be improving – shadow inventory. CoreLogic reports that residential shadow inventory declined to 1.6 million units in July, which represents five months of supply at the current sales pace. The encouraging news here is that over 300,000 units have been removed from the market over the past year.

As for mortgage rates, the decline has also stopped, at least for now. In the past week, rates increased a few basis points across most offerings. Many economists pointed to Europe for a general rise in interest rates. It appears that Greece is moving farther away from defaulting on its debt.US Treasury securities have been a haven for many investors who fear the prospect of a Greek (and possible European Union) collapse. Over the past few weeks, volatility has been high in many of the maturities, including the influential 10-year Treasury note that has been bouncing around in a 30-basis point range. If the news in Europe continues to improve and if our own moribund economy starts showing new vigor, we can easily see that 30-point band shifting higher. Therefore, we advise locking to anyone unwilling to take risks for a few extra basis points.

Info courtesy of Jessica Regan.

When you are buying or selling property in today's Harrisburg PA real estate market, it's important to have confidence in your real estate professional. Don’s commitment as your Harrisburg PA REALTOR® is to provide you with the specialized real estate service you deserve.

When you are an informed buyer or seller, you'll make the best decisions for the most important purchase or sale in your lifetime. That's why Don’s goal is to keep you informed on trends in Harrisburg PA real estate. With property values continuing to rise, real estate is a sound investment for now and for the future.

As a local area expert with knowledge of Harrisburg PA area communities, Don’s objective is to work diligently to assist you in meeting your real estate goals.

If you are considering buying or selling a home or would just like to have additional information about real estate in your area, please don't hesitate to call me at (717) 657-8700, complete my online form, or e-mail me at don@donroth.com.

Homebuilders remain in a state of suspended negative animation, and most of them believe their situation is unlikely to improve any time soon. The homebuilders’ sentiment index posted at 14 for September. It has ranged between 13 and 17 for the past year. Fifty is the split between optimism and pessimism, so there is a long way to go before sentiment changes.

At least the decline in housing starts appears to be moderating. Starts posted at an annual rate of 571,000 units in August, a 5-percent drop from July's numbers. Many media outlets blamed weather – Hurricane Irene in the Northwest and South – for the decline. The good news is that permits for future construction were up 3.2 percent, suggesting a slight improvement for starts in September and possibly beyond.In contrast, existing-home sales showed significant improvement, surging 7.7 percent to an annual rate of 5.03 million units in August. The burst in sales drew supply down by 3 percent to 3.577 million units, dropping supply to 8.5 months from 9.5 months in July.

It appears some additional discounting and bargain hunting among investors was occurring in the existing-home market. The median sales price fell 1.7 percent to $168,300 in August, while the average price slumped 1.6 percent to $216,800. Investors accounted for 22 percent of sales, up from 18 percent in July. This suggests to us that foreclosed properties are being absorbed and taken off the market.Despite the August decline in median and average existing-home prices, we remain convinced the worst is over, though our optimism remains tempered. We are not expecting a surge in home prices any time soon; then again, neither are most housing experts. MacroMarkets surveyed 111 experts and the consensus is for prices to grow at a 1.1-percent annual rate through 2015. It's not a growth rate to get excited over, to be sure; then again, it's not a negative growth rate either.

We are also not expecting a surge in mortgage rates. In fact, rates continue to set new multi-decade lows. As you may have heard, the Federal Reserved announced it will start buying longer-term US Treasury and mortgage-backed securities. The goal is for the Fed to purchase $400 billion worth of securities with maturities between 6 and 30 years by June 2012 in order to further lower long-term borrowing rates.This means low mortgage rates will be with us for a while. The 30-year fixed-rated mortgage is usually priced two to two-and-half percentage points above the yield on the 10-year Treasury note. The yield on that security tumbled to a mere 1.75 percent on Wednesday. Some 30-year mortgage loans are already being quoted below 4 percent.

When transactions are your livelihood, it can be difficult to muster a smile when there are fewer of them. There were fewer transactions in existing-home sales, which fell 3.8 percent to a 4.8 million annualized rate in May. Supply on the market, at 3.72 million units, is falling, but not enough relative to the sales pace, as inventory rose to 9.3 months versus April's 9.0 months.

Price stabilization was the positive takeaway, with the median sales price rising to $166,500. Another plus is that sales of single-family homes, the central component in the report, fell at a slower rate at 3.2 percent. Floods and tornado-ravaging storms in the Midwest were mitigating factors. Blaming the weather is often the easy way out, but this time it appears valid.

Sales of new houses also fell for the first time in three months, by 2.1 percent to a 319,000-unit annualized pace in May, showing that the industry continues to struggle to gain momentum. The good news is that prices continue to rise, with the median price inching up to $222,600 from $217,000 in April, while inventory continues to fall, with supply dipping to 6.2 months from 6.3 months.

Sales are down, but prices are up, which suggests to us that the days of simply giving away homes are over (even with the putative 1.8 million homes in shadow inventory). MacroMarkets, an economic data compiler, surveyed real estate experts on home-price trends. The consensus estimate was for an average annual growth rate of 2 percent, which MacroMarkets co-founder Robert Shiller opined “will not inspire a lot of consumer confidence.”

We disagree, because price growth isn't price contraction. Two percent average-annual growth on a $200,000 home means the home is worth more than $220,000 after five years. What's more, home equity will grow as the mortgage is amortized. Five years is a long time, and no one can know with certainty what the average annual rate of appreciation will be. Given the low price of homes today, though, we would not be surprised to see homes appreciate at a rate greater than 2 percent annually.

Now, we would like to see mortgage rates start to rise. Without artificial support from the Federal Reserve, interest rates would naturally move higher. That's not bad; the market needs to get back to equilibrium – with more private mortgage money and private mortgage-backed securities, so we can have more choices and more lending alternatives. A rising-rate environment also implies that there are other positive things happening in the economy.

Mortgage rates continue to hold historical lows. Low rates coupled with stable-to-rising prices in many parts of the country point to a near-perfect storm of a market for buying residential or investment real estate.

Central Pennsylvania Real Estate Report

If there is one subject that is constantly discussed, it is the state of the real estate market in the Greater Harrisburg area. I am always asked are homes selling and what sales range is the strongest. The short answer is that homes continue to sell in our market, but they are taking a little longer to sell than what we have experienced is the past few years and that trend probably will continue into the first half of 2011. Homes priced in the low to mid $100,000s are selling the best, if you will but we must remember there are traditionally more homes in this range than any other price range. But homes in all price ranges continue to sell in our market. We must remember that some of the unfortunate news that we hear about in some areas of the country are not being experienced by this market to the degree that other areas have experienced. Yes there has been a slowdown in sales and increases in foreclosures and short sales in this market and that trend will again continue in the near future.

Is there good news in the Harrisburg real estate market? Absolutely, mortgage rates, although they have increased recently, are still below 5% and most likely will increase slightly in the months ahead. Additionally, the average home sales price has held up remarkably well and in my opinion that will continue. And lastly if you are looking to purchase a home there is a great selection of homes to choose from in all price ranges. We will most likely never see the frenzy that we saw a few years back, but I have been in this business for over 19 years and we will see the normalcy of the early 2000s and we will experience excellent home sales numbers with appreciating, not depreciation average home sale prices. No the glass is not half full yet but we are getting closer. May you have a Happy and Prosperous 2011.

If you have any real estate questions please contact me at Don@DonRoth.com and if you would like to see the list of available homes for sale visit my web site www.DonRoth.com and click on the search listings tab and search away.