Real Estate Information Archive

Will They or Won't They? (We Again Ask)

We're tired of writing about the Federal Reserve. We suspect that you're tired of reading about the Fed. But the Fed matters – to both the housing and mortgage markets – so we have no choice but to press on. 

Recent events had pointed to the Fed standing back from raising the federal funds rate in September. Specifically, economic growth remains anemic.  Gross domestic product (GDP) for the second quarter came in weaker than expected, at 2.3%. Most economists were expecting growth to post closer to 3%. 

Weakness was particularly pronounced in nonresidential fixed investment, which fell 0.6%. Commentators frequently focus on consumer spending when commenting on economic growth. To be sure, spending is important, but so is investment, because investment lays the foundation for future consumption: You have to produce in order to consume in the long run.  Production, which investment funds, paves the way for consumption.

When the disappointing GDP figures were released last Thursday, the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note drifter lower by 15 basis points. In turn, rates on most mortgages, particularly the 15- and 30-year loans, drifter lower. Depending on the market, sub-4% on the 30-year loan could be had. 

But over the past day or so, yields and rates have drifted higher. One of the Federal Reserve's presidents, Dennis Lockhart, opined publicly this week that the economy could handle an increase in the fed funds rate in September. (The fed funds rate is the rate banks lend to each other overnight. It's a short-term rate, but it tends to filter through to the long end of the curve.) 

So what do private-market participants think will happen?

As for private-market traders, those who bet on interest-rate movements, the futures market has priced in a 50% chance the Fed will raise the fed funds rate next month. Last week, futures were priced at a 33% chance. So who knows what next week will bring. 

We remain skeptical that anything happens in September: Economic growth is still weak, while the U.S. dollar is still strong. Against most currencies, the dollar has appreciated significantly. A rate increase will only further strengthen the dollar against other currencies. For many multinational corporations, this is an issue. A stronger dollar makes exports more expensive and can result in significant currency-exchange losses when money is repatriated from overseas. We could see some additional push-back against a rate increase. 

With that said, we wouldn't be surprised if a rate hike occurs. The Fed may have to move to raise rates simply to maintain credibility. (You can drag people along only so far before they revolt.)  The impetus, then, is for rates to rise. (Keep in mind, they can rise without or without the Fed's blessing.)  Therefore, we're likely looking at the floor on mortgage rates. The mortgage rates we see today could be the best rates we see for quite a while.

Information provided by Jessica Regan.

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When you are buying or selling property in today's Harrisburg PA real estate market, it's important to have confidence in your real estate professional. Don’s commitment as your Harrisburg PA REALTOR® is to provide you with the specialized real estate service you deserve.

When you are an informed buyer or seller, you'll make the best decisions for the most important purchase or sale in your lifetime. That's why Don’s goal is to keep you informed on trends in Harrisburg PA real estate. With property values continuing to rise, real estate is a sound investment for now and for the future.

As a local area expert with knowledge of Harrisburg PA area communities, Don’s objective is to work diligently to assist you in meeting your real estate goals.

If you are considering buying or selling a home or would just like to have additional information about real estate in your area, please don't hesitate to call me at (717) 657-8700, complete my online form, or e-mail me at don@donroth.com.

Chinese stocks experienced a hard sell last week. A couple of that country's major market indices dropped over 10% over a couple of trading days. The sell-off in Chinese stocks lead to a buy-in of traditionally haven investments, like the 10-year U.S. Treasury note, which saw its yield drop by nearly 15 basis points. Of course, as the 10-year note goes, so go mortgage rates, which have eased over the past two weeks.

If China's stock market remains weak, odds favor the Federal Reserve sustaining from raising the federal funds rates in September. The next meeting of the Fed's Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) occurs September 17, and many market participants anticipate the first rate increase since 2006. We are somewhat less anticipatory.

We still think a rate increase is in the more distant future. China is one reason; our own economic growth is another. Gross domestic product (GDP) was negative in the first quarter. What's more, growth for the second quarter is expected to be positive, but weak. In addition, the U.S. dollar remains strong against most major currencies. An interest-rate increase will further raise the perception of a strong dollar, thus pressuring it to appreciate even more.

With that said, we could be wrong on the Fed come September, but even if we are, that doesn't mean long-term lending rates will rise. On the other hand, they could rise even if the Fed continues to hold the fed funds rate at current levels. China, not the Fed, could be the key factor in interest rates over the next couple months.

Information provided by Jessica Regan.

Search all Harrisburg PA homes for sale.

When you are buying or selling property in today's Harrisburg PA real estate market, it's important to have confidence in your real estate professional. Don’s commitment as your Harrisburg PA REALTOR® is to provide you with the specialized real estate service you deserve.

When you are an informed buyer or seller, you'll make the best decisions for the most important purchase or sale in your lifetime. That's why Don’s goal is to keep you informed on trends in Harrisburg PA real estate. With property values continuing to rise, real estate is a sound investment for now and for the future.

As a local area expert with knowledge of Harrisburg PA area communities, Don’s objective is to work diligently to assist you in meeting your real estate goals.

If you are considering buying or selling a home or would just like to have additional information about real estate in your area, please don't hesitate to call me at (717) 657-8700, complete my online form, or e-mail me at don@donroth.com.

Is Short-Term Volatility a Long-Term Worry?

Things have gotten a bit bouncy of late. The velocity of up-and-down movements in housing data has certainly increased in recent weeks.

Home prices are an example. Last month, the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index showed prices were mostly up in the 20 metropolitan districts it follows. This month, prices are somewhat more scattered.

Case-Shiller reports surprising price weakness in many markets. Specifically, home prices declined in 12 of the districts it follows. When the numbers are tallied, the index shows a 0.2% decline for May. This is on top of a downward revision in April's numbers. Year over year, the rate of price appreciation has eased to 4.9%.

Activity pertaining to new home sales could be a contributing factor in Case-Shiller's numbers. New home sales can be volatile, and sales were certainly volatile in June. Sales plunged a surprisingly steep 6.8%, posting at 482,000 units on an annualized basis. What's more, revisions erased 40,000 new home sales from the prior two months.

The good news is that the price of new homes are holding steady, with the median price posting at $281,800, a 0.5% monthly increase. Price appreciation will likely remain anemic, though. There are an estimated 215,000 new homes on the market. At the June sales pace, the current supply rises to 5.4 months compared to 4.8 months in June. More supply coupled with slowing sales points to slowing price appreciation at the national level.

Of course, what happens at the national level frequently has no bearing at the local level. Markets are segmented by location and by property type. Price appreciation in many markets has stagnated at the higher echelons. Lower down, price appreciation remains brisk. That's an issue for new potential home owners (younger people). Homeownership rates remain stubbornly low. In fact, the homeownership rate for the second quarter of 2015 fell to 63.4%, the lowest rate since 1967. Much of the decline can be traced to a dearth of first-time owners.

The obvious question is, are higher mortgage rates dragging the market down?

Existing home sales for June were surprising strong, but a change in mortgage rates lags in the existing-home-sales data. New home sales are reported when the contract is signed; existing home sale are reported when the transaction closes. If higher mortgage rates are an issue, we should expect to see a slowdown in existing home sales for July and August.

We suspect that higher mortgage rates aren't the issue. The Mortgage Bankers Association reported that purchase applications were up again last week. Year over year, purchase activity is up 18%. If we focus on just new-home purchase activity, we find that activity is trending hire.

In short, we view recent volatility in home sales and prices as being similar to a case of indigestion. No need to worry, because this, too, shall pass.

Information provided by Jessica Regan.

Search all Harrisburg PA homes for sale.

When you are buying or selling property in today's Harrisburg PA real estate market, it's important to have confidence in your real estate professional. Don’s commitment as your Harrisburg PA REALTOR® is to provide you with the specialized real estate service you deserve.

When you are an informed buyer or seller, you'll make the best decisions for the most important purchase or sale in your lifetime. That's why Don’s goal is to keep you informed on trends in Harrisburg PA real estate. With property values continuing to rise, real estate is a sound investment for now and for the future.

As a local area expert with knowledge of Harrisburg PA area communities, Don’s objective is to work diligently to assist you in meeting your real estate goals.

If you are considering buying or selling a home or would just like to have additional information about real estate in your area, please don't hesitate to call me at (717) 657-8700, complete my online form, or e-mail me at don@donroth.com.

Let's be real – have you ever bought a coaster set you were truly thrilled about? Probably not. Most coasters aren’t exactly created with an eye for design, so it can be nearly impossible find a set that screams “you.” 

Instead of forgoing coasters and encouraging drink rings, make your own! Everything you need for DIY cork coasters can be found at the craft store. 

Here’s what you need:

cork board sheet or small cork roll

X-Acto knife

pint glass, small bowl or coffee cup with large mouth

Fine-tipped pen

For “paint pen” coasters: a standard paint marker (we went with Sharpie)

For “acrylic paint” coasters: acrylic paints, paintbrush and painter’s tape

For “Mod Podge magazine” coasters: Mod Podge and patterned paper

It doesn’t matter what look you want to give your cork coasters – you need to create the base, or bottom, of your coasters first. Here’s how:

1. Unroll the cork material and lay it on a flat surface.

2. Grab the glass, mug or bowl and fine-tipped pen. Flip the glass upside down on top of the cork and trace the circular mouth of the  glass with the pen.

3. Lift up the glass and set it back down on a new space of cork. Repeat until you have the number of coasters you want.

4. Carefully cut out the coasters with the X–Acto knife. 

Mod Podge

First, tear out some of your favorite designs from magazines or print patterns that you find online. (We took images from the latest Anthropologie magazine.) Tip: No spare magazines in your home? You can also do the same process with glitter!

Once you’ve found a few pieces that you like, follow these steps:

1. Grab an object with a circular base that has a smaller mouth than the glass you used before.

2. Trace the outline with a pen and then carefully cut out the circles of magazine paper with the X-Acto knife.

3. Apply a layer of Mod Podge to the surface of the cork circle. Then, quickly apply the cut out magazine print to the cork. Make sure the image is facing up.

4. Apply a layer of Mod Podge on top of the whole surface of the cork and magazine image to seal it. That’s it! 

 Information provided by BrightNest.com.

Search all Harrisburg PA homes for sale.

When you are buying or selling property in today's Harrisburg PA real estate market, it's important to have confidence in your real estate professional. Don’s commitment as your Harrisburg PA REALTOR® is to provide you with the specialized real estate service you deserve.

When you are an informed buyer or seller, you'll make the best decisions for the most important purchase or sale in your lifetime. That's why Don’s goal is to keep you informed on trends in Harrisburg PA real estate. With property values continuing to rise, real estate is a sound investment for now and for the future.

As a local area expert with knowledge of Harrisburg PA area communities, Don’s objective is to work diligently to assist you in meeting your real estate goals.

If you are considering buying or selling a home or would just like to have additional information about real estate in your area, please don't hesitate to call me at (717) 657-8700, complete my online form, or e-mail me at don@donroth.com.

Ah, August. This hectic month is jam-packed with back-to-school obligations and last-minute barbecue invitations. But did you know it’s also a great time to save some cash?

Sure, school supplies are on sale this month, but August is full of awesome deals for the home, too!

Here are five things you can buy on the cheap this month:

1. Outdoor gear. Stores make it a high priority to get rid of outdoor gear before the temperatures drop, and this includes everything from patio furniture to grills to lawn mowers.Tip: It’s best to wait until the end of August to purchase outdoor furniture. Retailers like Sears and Home Depot will discount patio sets by as much as 90 percent!

2. Storage containers. Stores tend to cater to the new college crowd during August. That means they’ll mark down the value of dorm supplies, especially storage containers and organizers. In the market for some new under-the-bed storage drawers or maybe some space-saving bins for your bathroom? Now is the time to buy.

3. Linens. If you’re looking to restock your linen closet, August is the best time to do it! Not only are college kids shopping for new bed linens, many shops are also trying to purge their summer sheets to make room for heavier fall and winter gear. You can expect to find linens, duvets, pillows and blankets at a discount price.

4. Kids clothing. If your little one’s jeans have seen one-too-many grass stains this summer, jump on the back-to-school bandwagon! Clothing retailers have widespread sales on kids clothing during August with markdowns as much as 40-70 percent off!

5. Office supplies. They may be under the label of “school supplies,” but don’t be fooled! Grown-ups need pens and pencils, too. If you have a home office (or just need some new envelopes) stock up on these supplies while you can. Tip: Need a new desk for your home office? Computer desks often fall into the “dorm items” category, so they’ll be cheaper this month, too. 

Information provided by BrightNest.com.​ 

Search all Harrisburg PA homes for sale.

When you are buying or selling property in today's Harrisburg PA real estate market, it's important to have confidence in your real estate professional. Don’s commitment as your Harrisburg PA REALTOR® is to provide you with the specialized real estate service you deserve.

When you are an informed buyer or seller, you'll make the best decisions for the most important purchase or sale in your lifetime. That's why Don’s goal is to keep you informed on trends in Harrisburg PA real estate. With property values continuing to rise, real estate is a sound investment for now and for the future.

As a local area expert with knowledge of Harrisburg PA area communities, Don’s objective is to work diligently to assist you in meeting your real estate goals.

If you are considering buying or selling a home or would just like to have additional information about real estate in your area, please don't hesitate to call me at (717) 657-8700, complete my online form, or e-mail me at don@donroth.com.