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Displaying blog entries 11-13 of 13

Federal Reserve Speak

Wednesday, August 7, 2013
by Don Roth

The language from the Federal Reserve can be frustratingly ambiguous. The minutes of the latest Fed governors meeting, released this past Wednesday, state that “economic activity expanded at a modest pace during the first half of the year,” which indicates the economy still isn't growing at a pace the Fed would like to see. At the same time, the Fed has hinted that it could begin tapering quantitative easing within the next month or two.

It can all be a bit confusing.

The key variable in the equation, and we've said this repeatedly, is job growth. Accelerating job growth means accelerating economic growth, and then, for sure, the Fed will begin to taper and mortgage rates will rise. But if job growth continues to come in at, or below, current expectations, we'll likely see the unemployment rate hold current levels, which is unacceptable to the Fed.

Our best guess is that the current mortgage-rate range will hold through summer. If we don't see a material change in the unemployment rate by the end of the third quarter, we'd expect the Fed's commitment to quantitative easing to push into 2014, which means mortgage rates would hold the current range through 2013.

  Courtesy of Jessica Regan.

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When you are buying or selling property in today's Harrisburg PA real estate market, it's important to have confidence in your real estate professional. Don’s commitment as your Harrisburg PA REALTOR® is to provide you with the specialized real estate service you deserve.

When you are an informed buyer or seller, you'll make the best decisions for the most important purchase or sale in your lifetime. That's why Don’s goal is to keep you informed on trends in Harrisburg PA real estate. With property values continuing to rise, real estate is a sound investment for now and for the future.

As a local area expert with knowledge of Harrisburg PA area communities, Don’s objective is to work diligently to assist you in meeting your real estate goals.

If you are considering buying or selling a home or would just like to have additional information about real estate in your area, please don't hesitate to call me at (717) 657-8700, complete my online form, or e-mail me at don@donroth.com.

Harrisburg PA Mortgage Market Recap – August 7, 2013

Wednesday, August 7, 2013
by Don Roth

Are Mortgage Rates the Real Issue?

Housing activity has slowed noticeably over the past couple months. Sales of new and existing homes have stagnated, while new residential construction has been volatile. Most market watchers say higher mortgage rates are to blame.

To be sure, higher mortgage rates raise the monthly cost of financing and owning a home, but rising home prices are also a contributing factor to overall costs.

On the latter, most data sources point to a sustained rise in home prices. The latest data release from S&P/Case-Shiller confirms the trend. Case-Shiller's home price index show that prices rose in 18 of the 20 cities it follows ( Minneapolis and Cleveland were slight laggards). Overall, home prices rose 1% in May compared to April. This latest increase lifts the year-over-year gain to 12.1%.

The laws of supply and demand state that when prices rise demand falls. But at the same time, rising prices draw more supply into the market. As we know, lack of supply has restrained sales growth over the past year. The good news is that we have seen supply in existing homes for sale increase over the past few months. Rising home prices are, no doubt, a contributing factor.

Going forward we see home-price gains moderating. This should help draw more homes into supply. We say that because more potential sellers will no longer be compelled to wait if they believe the price trend is moderating, or even stagnating. When you become more unsure of the future, you tend to act now; you don't wait.

We view moderating price gains as a positive. Indeed, low single-digit annual price gains would be more indicative of a normalized housing market. Double-digit year-over-year price gains aren't the norm, nor are they sustainable.

We remain somewhat skeptical, though, that recent mortgage-rate increases and tight supply are the main culprits behind the recent slowdown. Economic growth, or rather the lack of growth, could very well be the real culprit.

The fact is that economic growth remains sluggish. In the second-quarter of 2013, gross domestic product (GDP) grew at a 1.7% annualized rate (normal growth is around 3%).

Because the economy isn't quite firing on all cylinders, we doubt that we will see any dramatic moves in mortgage rates.

Job growth will be key. If we see sustained job growth over the next couple months, this will be indicative of stronger economic growth in the third quarter. If that occurs, rates will move higher, but we still don't think they'll move materially higher.

We don't expect to see 5% on the 30-year fixed-rate loan until the Federal Reserve unequivocally indicates it will cut back on quantitative easing, and that remains the great unknown.

Courtesy of Jessica Regan.

Search all Harrisburg PA homes for sale.

When you are buying or selling property in today's Harrisburg PA real estate market, it's important to have confidence in your real estate professional. Don’s commitment as your Harrisburg PA REALTOR® is to provide you with the specialized real estate service you deserve.

When you are an informed buyer or seller, you'll make the best decisions for the most important purchase or sale in your lifetime. That's why Don’s goal is to keep you informed on trends in Harrisburg PA real estate. With property values continuing to rise, real estate is a sound investment for now and for the future.

As a local area expert with knowledge of Harrisburg PA area communities, Don’s objective is to work diligently to assist you in meeting your real estate goals.

If you are considering buying or selling a home or would just like to have additional information about real estate in your area, please don't hesitate to call me at (717) 657-8700, complete my online form, or e-mail me at don@donroth.com.

Safety Check Your Stairs

Friday, August 2, 2013
by Don Roth

Every six minutes, a child ends up in the emergency room because of a stair-related injury. And these visits aren’t just about scraped knees – three out of four of those kids suffer head and neck injuries! To protect your family, take fifteen minutes to check the safety of your stairs.

stairsNew homes are by no means immune to danger, but older homes are more likely to have problems. If your home is more than ten years old, it’s important that you check your stairs at least once a year to make sure they stay safe.

  1. In the house. Most stair-related injuries (for kids and adults) occur on the home’s main set of stairs. Check the following things on your staircase:

    Clutter. If your family commonly sets things on the stairs to bring them up and down, it’s time to break that habit. Small items on the stairs are dangerous, especially if a young one is racing to the dinner table! Instead, place a basket near – but not on – your stairs and put items destined for another floor in the basket.
    Stair treads. Check the length of your stair treads. Are they deep enough for the whole foot of the largest-footed person in your home? If not, they’re a potential fall hazard.
    Balusters. If you have small children in your home, this is especially important. Use the “tennis ball test” to make sure your stair balusters (also called spindles and stair sticks) are safe. If a tennis ball can fit between the balusters, a small child can also fall through that space!
    Light switches. Does your home have a light switch on the top and bottom of the stairs? If not, a late-night tumble could happen. In the United States, building codes require light switches in both places if the staircase has six stair treads or more. But some older homes may not be equipped with both switches.
    Handrail. Give the stair’s handrail a hard tug. Does it move at all? If so, it should probably be tightened up.
    Uniformity. Stand at the top of your flight of stairs and look down. Do all the stair’s edges – including the very top landing – line up? If any stair is mis-aligned, it’s a fall hazard. Note: This is a relatively common problem in new homes.

  2. On the porch or deck. Many porches don’t have enough steps to require a handrail, but we recommend installing one regardless. Think of it like safety insurance for every person that walks onto your porch or deck. Bonus: A stylish handrail can increase curb appeal!
  3. In the garage. One third of all garage-related ER visits are from stair slips and falls. If your garage has stairs (even short ones) do all of the stair checks you’d do for indoor stairs. Also, make sure they’re easy to see, even at night. Add reflective tape to the edge of each step.
Info provided by BrightNest.com.

Search all Harrisburg PA homes for sale.

When you are buying or selling property in today's Harrisburg PA real estate market, it's important to have confidence in your real estate professional. Don’s commitment as your Harrisburg PA REALTOR® is to provide you with the specialized real estate service you deserve.

When you are an informed buyer or seller, you'll make the best decisions for the most important purchase or sale in your lifetime. That's why Don’s goal is to keep you informed on trends in Harrisburg PA real estate. With property values continuing to rise, real estate is a sound investment for now and for the future.

As a local area expert with knowledge of Harrisburg PA area communities, Don’s objective is to work diligently to assist you in meeting your real estate goals.

If you are considering buying or selling a home or would just like to have additional information about real estate in your area, please don't hesitate to call me at (717) 657-8700, complete my online form, or e-mail me at don@donroth.com.

Displaying blog entries 11-13 of 13

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