Real Estate Information Archive

We started August with a prediction: We didn’t expect to see much movement in mortgage rates for much of the month.  So far, our soothsaying has proved accurate, and even more accurate than we expected.

Mortgage rates continue to hold a narrow range. In fact, Mortgage News Daily reports that there are no historical examples of rates holding as steady and as narrow as they have held in August. Rates are about as narrow and as steady as they’ve ever been.

Of course, that could all change next Friday, if the employment numbers for August are as strong as those in July (which saw a 255,000 increase in payrolls.)  The Federal Reserve could be as motivated as it has been all year to finally move on interest rates.

But then again, maybe not. Global economic growth remains an overarching concern.

According to the International Monetary Fund's (IMF) latest World Economic Outlook released in July, advanced economies will grow only 1.8% in 2016 and 2017, down 0.1% and 0.2% separately from the IMF’s April forecasts. Lack of meaningful growth means central banks around the world will continue to pump more money into their respective economies, which they do by buying government bonds with newly created money. All this money pumping and bond buying has swelled the value of negative-yield bonds to $13.4 trillion.

Federal Reserve officials meet again on Sept. 21. Traders in federal funds rate futures contracts are betting with an 18% chance of a rate increase. (We think the odds should be lower.)  The strongest odds for a rate increase don’t occur until the Fed’s December meeting, which is when the Fed last raised rates. The odds for an increase in December rise to 49%.

In short, we wouldn’t be surprised if this narrow range for mortgage rates persists deep into September.  

 Information provided by Jessica Regan.

Search all Harrisburg PA homes for sale.

When you are buying or selling property in today's Harrisburg PA real estate market, it's important to have confidence in your real estate professional. Don’s commitment as your Harrisburg PA REALTOR® is to provide you with the specialized real estate service you deserve.

When you are an informed buyer or seller, you'll make the best decisions for the most important purchase or sale in your lifetime. That's why Don’s goal is to keep you informed on trends in Harrisburg PA real estate. With property values continuing to rise, real estate is a sound investment for now and for the future.

As a local area expert with knowledge of Harrisburg PA area communities, Don’s objective is to work diligently to assist you in meeting your real estate goals.

If you are considering buying or selling a home or would just like to have additional information about real estate in your area, please don't hesitate to call me at (717) 657-8700, complete my online form, or e-mail me at don@donroth.com.

Sales Mixed, but Still Strong

After dipping in June, new-home sales took flight in July.  Sales were up a whopping 12.4% to 654,000 units on an annualized rate.

Strength was concentrated in two regions – the South and the Northeast. As for the former, the South, sales rose 18.1% to 398,000 units on an annualized rate.  As for the Northeast, sales were up a stunning 40%. But because the new-home market is a small market in the Northeast, that works out to only 35,000 units on an annualized rate.

It appears builders further embraced discounting to move inventory. The median price of a new home fell 5.1% to $294,600 in July. The latest price decline moves the year-over-year median price of a new home to negative from positive. Year over year, the median price is down 0.5%.

A dearth of supply could lead builders to throttle back on discounting going forward. Given the pace of sales, new homes on the market fell by 7,000 to 233,000. This caused monthly supply to fall to 4.3 months from 4.9 months in June. (The all time record was 12.1 months of supply in January 2009.)

The sales figures were less robust on the existing-home front.  Sales of existing homes fell 3.2%  to 5.39 million units on an annualized rate in July. It appears that discounting is cropping up in a few more markets these days. The NAR reports that the median price of an existing home dipped 1.4% to $244,100 in July. The year-over-year price is still positive, though. The median price of an existing home is up 5.3% compared to the same year-ago period.

The existing-home market continues to struggle with the recurrent bugaboo – low inventory – which continues to hamper sales growth. The inventory of existing homes was 5.8% lower in July compared to a year ago. This marked the 14thconsecutive month of year-over-year declines.  Inventory now stands at 4.7 months at the current sales pace.

Yes, the sales data were mixed, but all told, the outlook remains positive. When considering sales, prices, new construction from a long-term perspective, we still see a very healthy market. We don’t expect that perspective to change for years to come.  

Information provided by Jessica Regan.

Search all Harrisburg PA homes for sale.

When you are buying or selling property in today's Harrisburg PA real estate market, it's important to have confidence in your real estate professional. Don’s commitment as your Harrisburg PA REALTOR® is to provide you with the specialized real estate service you deserve.

When you are an informed buyer or seller, you'll make the best decisions for the most important purchase or sale in your lifetime. That's why Don’s goal is to keep you informed on trends in Harrisburg PA real estate. With property values continuing to rise, real estate is a sound investment for now and for the future.

As a local area expert with knowledge of Harrisburg PA area communities, Don’s objective is to work diligently to assist you in meeting your real estate goals.

If you are considering buying or selling a home or would just like to have additional information about real estate in your area, please don't hesitate to call me at (717) 657-8700, complete my online form, or e-mail me at don@donroth.com.

See if this Tupperware situation sounds familiar:  Lots of round lids. Too many square containers. No properly stored food. Total chaos.

Using Tupperware (and its other-brand brothers) is an easy way to keep leftovers organized, but only if key plastic pieces quit disappearing! Instead of blaming the kitchen elves, create a Tupperware organization system. That way, you’ll always have the right lid-container combination within arm’s reach.

Here are a few easy ways to control the mess:

1. Get Consistent

Nothing is worse than having ten circular lids when all you need is a square one! You may have to spend a little money up front to consolidate your Tupperware, but it’s easier to keep track of everything if they’re the same shape. Tip: While you’re at it, invest in Tupperware that’s mostly the same size. Mixing and matching will be way easier!

2. Nest and Contain

If you do decide to keep different sized containers around, nest the smaller ones inside the large ones! You’ll open up a ton of cabinet space and keep better track of your lids.

3. Collect Your Lids

If your lids keep disappearing, make a habit of putting them all in one large plastic bin or basket. Then stack your Tupperware bottoms next to the bin. Think of the bin as confined chaos. Next time you grab a Tupperware bottom, search through the bin for a lid that fits.

4. Be a Brand Snob 

We’re not suggesting that you only buy a certain brand – just keep them separate. By designating a different bin for each brand you own, it will be easier to find matches on the fly. So you’ll have a Gladware bin, a Tupperware bin, a Target-brand bin and so on.

5. Use a Big Pot

Do you have one oversized pot that gets used like once a year? Dust it off and use it to store your Tupperware! You’ll open up valuable cabinet space and keep all of your containers in one spot.

Information provided by BrightNest.com.

Search all Harrisburg PA homes for sale.

When you are buying or selling property in today's Harrisburg PA real estate market, it's important to have confidence in your real estate professional. Don’s commitment as your Harrisburg PA REALTOR® is to provide you with the specialized real estate service you deserve.

When you are an informed buyer or seller, you'll make the best decisions for the most important purchase or sale in your lifetime. That's why Don’s goal is to keep you informed on trends in Harrisburg PA real estate. With property values continuing to rise, real estate is a sound investment for now and for the future.

As a local area expert with knowledge of Harrisburg PA area communities, Don’s objective is to work diligently to assist you in meeting your real estate goals.

If you are considering buying or selling a home or would just like to have additional information about real estate in your area, please don't hesitate to call me at (717) 657-8700, complete my online form, or e-mail me at don@donroth.com.

We’re convinced that the vast majority of people – old,  young, and in between – want to own a home. Numerous surveys from Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, etc. support our claim.

But even if these surveys were never taken, human nature would convince us that people prefer to own than to rent. Knowing you can drive a nail into any wall you like offers incalculable psychic benefits: You know that your abode is yours.

We travel down this path because the Washington Post posted an excellent article a few days ago titled "How a Family Is Sending 13 Kids to College, Living Debt Free - and Still Plans to Retire Early."

Except the family featured in the article wasn’t always living debt free. They eschewed debt, but they were willing to carry a mortgage – the only debt they carried – to buy their home. We applaud the family (the parents, really). When you borrow, and when you can borrow at low rates, it’s economically sensible to borrow to buy assets that tend to appreciate in value over time. The value of a house, of sturdy condition and in the right location, will appreciate over time.

The key takeaway, though, is the importance of keeping your finances in order. The family in the Post article – the Fatzingers –  were able to buy a home in one of the country’s most expensive regions. (They live in Bowie, Maryland.)  This is despite the fact the family is a single-income family. In fact, the father’s income didn’t exceed $50,000 until he was 40 years old.  It just recently exceeded $100,000.

To be sure, the Fatzingers are frugal, but not cheap. They are creative in managing their limited resources. The Fatzingers are also inspiring. They tell us that with forethought and intelligent planning, there is always a way to get someone into the home he or she wants, even if the national numbers suggest otherwise. 

Information provided by Jessica Regan.

Search all Harrisburg PA homes for sale.

When you are buying or selling property in today's Harrisburg PA real estate market, it's important to have confidence in your real estate professional. Don’s commitment as your Harrisburg PA REALTOR® is to provide you with the specialized real estate service you deserve.

When you are an informed buyer or seller, you'll make the best decisions for the most important purchase or sale in your lifetime. That's why Don’s goal is to keep you informed on trends in Harrisburg PA real estate. With property values continuing to rise, real estate is a sound investment for now and for the future.

As a local area expert with knowledge of Harrisburg PA area communities, Don’s objective is to work diligently to assist you in meeting your real estate goals.

If you are considering buying or selling a home or would just like to have additional information about real estate in your area, please don't hesitate to call me at (717) 657-8700, complete my online form, or e-mail me at don@donroth.com.

Still Sailing on Calm Seas

All quiet on the home front, at least that’s the way it has been for the past few weeks.

The lack of impacting news continues to hold mortgage rates in a narrow range.  For most of August, the conventional 30-year loan has been quoted between 3.375% and 3.625%. We expect this range to hold until the next employment report, due September 2. Even after the report, we might not get much movement. Few credit-market watchers expect the Federal Reserve to move on interest rates until December.

The lack of movement in mortgage rates has taken some steam out of refinances, which isn’t unusual. Refinances were down 4% last week compared to the previous week, according to MBA data.

Purchase activity was also down 4% last week. Activity has been trending lower over the past month.  The good news is that activity remains elevated compared to the five-year average. Compared to this time last year, applications are actually up 10%. We’re still looking at a healthy market.

Speaking of healthy markets, the new-home market might be the healthiest of them all. Home builders appear to think so, at least if we are to gauge sentiment.

The NAHB Home Builder Sentiment Index posted at 60 in August.  This is the second time this year the index has posted at 60 (which is a positive).  Components within the index show gains for both present sales and future sales. Traffic volume was the only negative, reflecting the continued dearth of first-time buyers.

Builder sentiment is reflected in builder action. Housing starts were up 2.1% to 1.21 million units on an annualized rate in July.  This gain is on top of the gain we saw in June, when starts were up a strong 5.6%. Starts for single-family homes, the most important category, rose a respectable 0.5%.

When we look at the long-term trend, we like that single-family starts lead the way. Multi-family starts are actually down 0.6% year to date; single-family starts, on the other hand, are up 10.6%. It’s also worth noting that single-family starts continue to run at a historically low rate. We wouldn’t be surprised to see several years of rising single-family starts and completions.

All told, we like where housing is heading. Then again, we’ve liked where housing has been heading for the past five years.

Information provided by Jessica Regan.

Search all Harrisburg PA homes for sale.

When you are buying or selling property in today's Harrisburg PA real estate market, it's important to have confidence in your real estate professional. Don’s commitment as your Harrisburg PA REALTOR® is to provide you with the specialized real estate service you deserve.

When you are an informed buyer or seller, you'll make the best decisions for the most important purchase or sale in your lifetime. That's why Don’s goal is to keep you informed on trends in Harrisburg PA real estate. With property values continuing to rise, real estate is a sound investment for now and for the future.

As a local area expert with knowledge of Harrisburg PA area communities, Don’s objective is to work diligently to assist you in meeting your real estate goals.

If you are considering buying or selling a home or would just like to have additional information about real estate in your area, please don't hesitate to call me at (717) 657-8700, complete my online form, or e-mail me at don@donroth.com.

When you hear that first clap of thunder, take note! Lightning is a powerful force and could cause serious damage to your home.

Check these three quick tips to make sure you’re covered during that next thunderstorm.

Check Your Surge Protectors

First you need to own surge protectors and have your electronics being powered through them. This will help protect your outlets from far-away lightning strikes or lightning that hits main power grids. We recommend a surge protector like this one from Amazon to handle swells or spikes in voltage.

Unplug Your Appliances

Even if you have a surge protector, lighting that is in close proximity can be strong enough to “jump” or go through this protector. For this reason it’s a good idea to unplug any electronics to keep them from getting fried. This is the safest way to protect your major appliances like stereos, televisions and desktop computers.

Keep the Water Off

Electricity follows wiring and metal pipes in your home, and water conducts electricity. This means you are actually at risk of getting electrocuted if you’re using your home’s water during a lightning storm. If you can, wait until the storm passes before washing the dishes, washing your hands or taking a shower.

Information provided by BrightNest.com.

Search all Harrisburg PA homes for sale.

When you are buying or selling property in today's Harrisburg PA real estate market, it's important to have confidence in your real estate professional. Don’s commitment as your Harrisburg PA REALTOR® is to provide you with the specialized real estate service you deserve.

When you are an informed buyer or seller, you'll make the best decisions for the most important purchase or sale in your lifetime. That's why Don’s goal is to keep you informed on trends in Harrisburg PA real estate. With property values continuing to rise, real estate is a sound investment for now and for the future.

As a local area expert with knowledge of Harrisburg PA area communities, Don’s objective is to work diligently to assist you in meeting your real estate goals.

If you are considering buying or selling a home or would just like to have additional information about real estate in your area, please don't hesitate to call me at (717) 657-8700, complete my online form, or e-mail me at don@donroth.com.

It’s human nature to extrapolate the present into the distant future. That is, what prevails today will prevail tomorrow. If any change occurs, it will be gradual and predictable.

When it comes to interest rates, nothing could be further from the truth. This point is driven home in Sidney Homer’s and Richard Sylla’s fascinating book A History of Interest Rates. The book’s authors trace the history of interest rates back to 3,000 BC. The extent to which interest rates can range across geography and time is quite extraordinary.

For example, Homer and Sylla tell us that in classical Athens, money was lent at a rate of 48% per month; this sums to 576% annual interest, and that’s uncompounded. In the 12th century, loans in England were made at 52% to 120% a year, depending on the collateral, while at the same time in the Netherlands long-term loans secured by real estate were made at 8% to 10%.

The greatest range in interest rates occurred as recently as the 20th century. Rates at one time during the previous century were quoted as high as 10,000% in Berlin and 0.01% in New York for standard money-market credits.

It’s easy to get lulled into complacency, believing today’s low rates will be maintained into the deep future.  But if A History of Interest Rate tells us anything, it’s that credit markets are marked by volatility and immediate change. It’s worthwhile to keep that fact in mind if we are even lulled into believing today’s rates will exist in perpetuity.

Information provided by Jessica Regan.

Search all Harrisburg PA homes for sale.

When you are buying or selling property in today's Harrisburg PA real estate market, it's important to have confidence in your real estate professional. Don’s commitment as your Harrisburg PA REALTOR® is to provide you with the specialized real estate service you deserve.

When you are an informed buyer or seller, you'll make the best decisions for the most important purchase or sale in your lifetime. That's why Don’s goal is to keep you informed on trends in Harrisburg PA real estate. With property values continuing to rise, real estate is a sound investment for now and for the future.

As a local area expert with knowledge of Harrisburg PA area communities, Don’s objective is to work diligently to assist you in meeting your real estate goals.

If you are considering buying or selling a home or would just like to have additional information about real estate in your area, please don't hesitate to call me at (717) 657-8700, complete my online form, or e-mail me at don@donroth.com.

Is It Time to Change Our Tune?

The number was certainly big, which is to belabor the obvious.

July payrolls came in much higher than expected, with 255,000 new jobs being added for the month.  What’s more, June payrolls were revised up by an additional 5,000 to 292,000. May payrolls were also revised higher.  Two consecutive months, two consecutive blowout numbers.

The unemployment rate was nudged lower to 4.8% from 4.9%. You would normally expect to see a larger drop in the unemployment rate. But with job prospects improving, more people are being drawn back into the workforce. The employment participation rate moved up to 62.8%.

For the past two weeks, we’ve mentioned that there are few anticipated events that could move interest rates: Federal Reserve officials won’t meet again until next month. The UK Brexit vote is at best a back-burner issue now, if not a forgotten one.  We surmised that only the employment data could get rates moving – one way or the other.  Strong employment numbers could move interest rates higher.

So, did July’s employment numbers get interest rates moving higher?

After the employment numbers were released last Friday, rates moved higher.  We saw an immediate spike in the yield on the 10-year US Treasury note. The yield was up nearly 10 basis points to above 1.6%.  We also saw a spike in rates quoted on many mortgage products.

Since then, Treasury yields and mortgage rates have drifted lower. Indeed, the yield on the 10-year Treasury note is about where it was before the July employment numbers were released.  Mortgage rates are again quoted in the range that prevailed before last Friday. It appears nothing has changed.

It certainly hasn’t changed with traders. Federal funds rate futures contracts are priced with a 12% chance the fed funds rate will be raised next month. Meaningful odds don’t arise until December, where the odds are 43%.

Few credit-market watchers think the Fed will move the fed funds rate higher before December.  You can count us among them.  Yes, employment has picked up in recent months, but gross domestic product (GDP) growth remains sluggish, posting at 1.2% on an annualized basis for the second quarter.  We also need to keep in mind that that US dollar remains exceptionally strong when measured against other currencies, particularly against the British pound and the euro.  A rate increase would likely strengthen the dollar even more.

Therefore, we have to answer, no, it’s not time to change our tune.  We can see the current range of mortgage rates holding through the rest of the month.  That said, come September 2, we get the employment report for August.  Another blowout number on the upside will certainly move rates higher. Whether they stay higher, is another story.

Information provided by Jessica Regan.

Search all Harrisburg PA homes for sale.

When you are buying or selling property in today's Harrisburg PA real estate market, it's important to have confidence in your real estate professional. Don’s commitment as your Harrisburg PA REALTOR® is to provide you with the specialized real estate service you deserve.

When you are an informed buyer or seller, you'll make the best decisions for the most important purchase or sale in your lifetime. That's why Don’s goal is to keep you informed on trends in Harrisburg PA real estate. With property values continuing to rise, real estate is a sound investment for now and for the future.

As a local area expert with knowledge of Harrisburg PA area communities, Don’s objective is to work diligently to assist you in meeting your real estate goals.

If you are considering buying or selling a home or would just like to have additional information about real estate in your area, please don't hesitate to call me at (717) 657-8700, complete my online form, or e-mail me at don@donroth.com.

WHY DO THIS?

Window tracks are good at two things: 1.) Making it possible to open a window. 2.) Collecting insect corpses. It's a nasty reality, and it'll gross people out if they see it.

Here’s an easy way to clean up the dirt and insect...stuff from your window sills.

WHAT YOU'LL NEED:

SHOT GLASS OF WHITE VINEGAR

Q-TIPS OR OLD TOOTHBRUSH

PAPER TOWELS

VACUUM WITH HOSE ATTACHMENT (OPTIONAL)

HOW TO:

1. Pre-clean with a vacuum (optional). If your tracks are looking really bad, give them a once over with a vacuum attachment so you don't use a bajillion q-tips in step two.

2. Dip the q-tip in vinegar and run it along the nooks and crannies of your window tracks. Depending on how big your windows are (and how many windows you're cleaning today) you may need a bunch of q-tips and a few fresh shot glasses. You want to have enough vinegar on the q-tip so that it's kinda "runny" when you start cleaning each track.

Tip: If your tracks are really gross and sticky (as in, this-is-the-first-time-you've-ever-cleaned-them, sticky) an old toothbrush might work better here.

3. Use the paper towels to mop up the vinegar and additional dirt and insect graves. You can press the back of your finger against the towel as you "mop" up the vinegar. If your tracks are too narrow for a finger, try using one of those nasty q-tips.

4. Schedule another round in 3-6 months! All done? Schedule this to-do for 3-6 months from now (depending on how fastidious you are).

Information provided by BrightNest.com.

Search all Harrisburg PA homes for sale.

When you are buying or selling property in today's Harrisburg PA real estate market, it's important to have confidence in your real estate professional. Don’s commitment as your Harrisburg PA REALTOR® is to provide you with the specialized real estate service you deserve.

When you are an informed buyer or seller, you'll make the best decisions for the most important purchase or sale in your lifetime. That's why Don’s goal is to keep you informed on trends in Harrisburg PA real estate. With property values continuing to rise, real estate is a sound investment for now and for the future.

As a local area expert with knowledge of Harrisburg PA area communities, Don’s objective is to work diligently to assist you in meeting your real estate goals.

If you are considering buying or selling a home or would just like to have additional information about real estate in your area, please don't hesitate to call me at (717) 657-8700, complete my online form, or e-mail me at don@donroth.com.

The latest data from the US Census Bureau show the homeownership rate in the United States at its lowest level since the bureau began tracking the rate in 1965. As of the second quarter of 2016, the homeownership rate had dropped to 62.9%.

The bursting of the housing bubble is a major contributor to the decline. That said, the rate has actually been declining since 2004 when it peaked at 69.2%. After the bubble burst, the percentage of people who didn’t own a home accelerated.

Many commentators point to the rise in consumer debt or lack of income growth for the downward trend in homeownership. We’re not so sure.

A lot has been said about rising consumer debt, particularly debt tied to student loans. Indeed, student-loan debt has trended higher, rising to $29,000 in 2014 from $18,550 a decade earlier, according to Institute for College Access and Success data. Roughly 70% of graduating seniors graduate with some debt.

Yes, student-loan debt is an issue, but only if it’s out of hand relative to disposable income.  It may not be quite as out of hand as some pessimistic prognosticators lead us to believe.

Consumer debt as a percentage of disposable income stands at 5.5%, where it was 25 years ago. The percentage has actually dropped a full percentage point since 2001. For younger people, student-loan debt might comprise a larger percentage of overall debt, but if the debt is used to fund an education that leads to a marketable degree, it’s really an investment. Researchers at the New York Federal Reserve estimate college graduates earn about $1 million more over their lifetime than those without a degree.

As for income, it’s true: Real wages have stagnated, but they’ve stagnated since 1964. (Real wages are wages adjusted for inflation. Nominal wages, which are unadjusted for inflation, continue to rise.)  But as is always the case when dealing with large averages, meaningful details are frequently lost.

Quality is one meaningful detail. A real hourly wage buys more quality today compared to 1964. For example, televisions of today are not only infinitely superior in every way to televisions of 1964, they’re cheaper as well. Quality also demands a lower percentage of wage income today than in 1964. Real wages might have stagnated over the past 50 years, but you get more bang for your real-wage buck year after year.

Demand more than anything points to a trend reversal. The vast majority of us prefer to own than to rent a home. This preference also resonates with younger adults. Surveys from Fannie Mae continually show that over 90% of millennials are optimistic they will eventually own a home.

In short, we don’t see a problem with the current homeownership rate, because we see the opportunities that will arise when it trends higher. 

Information provided by Jessica Regan.

Search all Harrisburg PA homes for sale.

When you are buying or selling property in today's Harrisburg PA real estate market, it's important to have confidence in your real estate professional. Don’s commitment as your Harrisburg PA REALTOR® is to provide you with the specialized real estate service you deserve.

When you are an informed buyer or seller, you'll make the best decisions for the most important purchase or sale in your lifetime. That's why Don’s goal is to keep you informed on trends in Harrisburg PA real estate. With property values continuing to rise, real estate is a sound investment for now and for the future.

As a local area expert with knowledge of Harrisburg PA area communities, Don’s objective is to work diligently to assist you in meeting your real estate goals.

If you are considering buying or selling a home or would just like to have additional information about real estate in your area, please don't hesitate to call me at (717) 657-8700, complete my online form, or e-mail me at don@donroth.com.