Real Estate Information Archive

Former Yankees catcher Yogi Berra is as well known for his malapropisms as for his catching ability. On the former, Berra once famously quipped, “It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future.” With that thought in mind, we'll take a shot at predicting the mortgage-rate market for early 2012.

The reflexive response is to say that rates have to remain low. After all, the Federal Reserve has openly stated that it will continue to reinvest short-term securities into long-term securities. The Fed also said that it would keep reinvesting in mortgage-backed securities. Both activities will surely raise the pressure for mortgage rates to remain low.

Now, couple the Fed's resolve to hold long-term rates low with Europe 's ongoing travails and our own sluggish economy and it would appear mortgage rates would have to remain near today's levels at least through the first quarter of 2012.

With all that said, don't overlook or underestimate the “unseen” – the unexpected event that moves markets. Everything seen favors low rates, and few pundits are expecting higher rates. Because of that fact, we think the inevitable “unseen” favors a spike up in rates over a spike down.

Courtesy of Jessica Regan.

Search all Harrisburg PA homes for sale.

When you are buying or selling property in today's Harrisburg PA real estate market, it's important to have confidence in your real estate professional. Don’s commitment as your Harrisburg PA REALTOR® is to provide you with the specialized real estate service you deserve.

When you are an informed buyer or seller, you'll make the best decisions for the most important purchase or sale in your lifetime. That's why Don’s goal is to keep you informed on trends in Harrisburg PA real estate. With property values continuing to rise, real estate is a sound investment for now and for the future.

As a local area expert with knowledge of Harrisburg PA area communities, Don’s objective is to work diligently to assist you in meeting your real estate goals.

If you are considering buying or selling a home or would just like to have additional information about real estate in your area, please don't hesitate to call me at (717) 657-8700, complete my online form, or e-mail me at don@donroth.com.

Can we trust the data? Everyone is asking that question after the National Association of Realtors said it would revise its home sales data for the past four years. The revised data are scheduled for release this coming Wednesday with the NAR's monthly report on home sales for November.

The NAR cited several reasons for revising sales. The most notable reason was that the NAR believed it was overcompensating for sales that did not occur on the regional and local real estate listing services from which the NAR extracted data.

The bottom line is that sales and unsold inventory will be revised downward, but monthly percentage changes in sales volumes, months of outstanding inventory, and median home prices will remain unchanged.

Some media outlets have attacked the NAR's revisions from an alarmist or snarky angle. Neither is deserved; the NAR is simply admitting that it needs to be more accurate. What the NAR revisions really highlight is the difficulty in producing national numbers that are meaningful to any local market. If you think about it, is a median national sales price of $167,000 meaningful to a tony suburban enclave in Alexandria , Virginia or to an overbuilt Las Vegas ? We would argue that it isn't.

That said, we will still post and examine the national numbers, because they interest many market participants. The inputs can also be revealing. For example, Corelogic reported that total home prices were down 3.9 percent in October from a year ago, but prices were down by just 0.5 percent when distressed sales are excluded. This tells us that we have two distinct markets at work, which most of us knew anyway, but which much of the lay public doesn't know.

The national numbers can also set the mood and expectations of any one buyer or borrower. It's in our best interest then, and it's also truthful, to highlight the positives in a market dominated by negativity. To that end, we'll mention that Swiss financial services firm Credit Suisse told its clients last week that “ U.S. homes now appear fairly valued compared to median family income.” Credit Suisse's analysis also shows that shadow inventory and mortgage defaults will improve noticeably in 2012.

Mortgage rates, contrary to our expectations, will also continue to improve. Most financing options moved lower this past week, with the 30-year fixed-rate loan hitting a new low in many markets (though it's worth noting that a new low can be hit with only a couple basis-points move). Our outlook for an improving stock market, which would draw funds out of the bond market, is being negated by Europe's inability to deal with the near-bankruptcy of a few of its Mediterranean countries.

While the sense of urgency to refinance or purchase has been reduced, we still think it's best to lock and take advantage of today's rates. The fact is that most borrowers are less frustrated being locked and wishing they were floating than the reverse.

Courtesy of Jessica Regan.

Search all Harrisburg PA homes for sale.

When you are buying or selling property in today's Harrisburg PA real estate market, it's important to have confidence in your real estate professional. Don’s commitment as your Harrisburg PA REALTOR® is to provide you with the specialized real estate service you deserve.

When you are an informed buyer or seller, you'll make the best decisions for the most important purchase or sale in your lifetime. That's why Don’s goal is to keep you informed on trends in Harrisburg PA real estate. With property values continuing to rise, real estate is a sound investment for now and for the future.

As a local area expert with knowledge of Harrisburg PA area communities, Don’s objective is to work diligently to assist you in meeting your real estate goals.

If you are considering buying or selling a home or would just like to have additional information about real estate in your area, please don't hesitate to call me at (717) 657-8700, complete my online form, or e-mail me at don@donroth.com.

A few weeks ago, we wrote about changes in the Home Affordable Refinance Program, dubbed HARP 2.0. This latest incarnation of HARP will impact the supply-and-demand dynamics in the mortgage market, namely due to the removal of the 125-percent loan-to-value cap.

More borrowers will qualify for mortgage loans; that obviously means there will be more demand for mortgage loans. What's more, demand could increase sooner rather than later, particularly if borrowers who don't need HARP, but want to exploit today's low rates to avoid the possibility of a delay, ratchet up demand.

To be sure, HARP 2.0 will be a good deal for many mortgagors who have been unable to refinance because of diminished home equity. Many of these mortgagors will benefit, even if mortgages rates were to rise a full-percentage point or more.

Now, we're not forecasting a percentage point rise in rates when HARP 2.0 kicks into gear, but more demand does tend to raise costs, including the cost of mortgage financing. This is something borrowers who don't need HARP but who could take advantage of today's rates should think about, because many of them won't benefit if mortgage rates move significantly higher.

Courtesy of Jessica Regan.

Search all Harrisburg PA homes for sale.

When you are buying or selling property in today's Harrisburg PA real estate market, it's important to have confidence in your real estate professional. Don’s commitment as your Harrisburg PA REALTOR® is to provide you with the specialized real estate service you deserve.

When you are an informed buyer or seller, you'll make the best decisions for the most important purchase or sale in your lifetime. That's why Don’s goal is to keep you informed on trends in Harrisburg PA real estate. With property values continuing to rise, real estate is a sound investment for now and for the future.

As a local area expert with knowledge of Harrisburg PA area communities, Don’s objective is to work diligently to assist you in meeting your real estate goals.

If you are considering buying or selling a home or would just like to have additional information about real estate in your area, please don't hesitate to call me at (717) 657-8700, complete my online form, or e-mail me at don@donroth.com.

We tend to view most situations from an optimist's perspective, because optimists are more likely to see solutions that pessimists overlook; therefore, optimists tend to be better problem solvers.

Optimism, we have found, is also usually rewarded. The housing recovery has taken longer than most of us would like, but the market is recovering, and the recovery will likely gain pace as we progress through 2012.

Mortgage delinquencies are one area of continued progress. TransUnion forecasts delinquencies of 60 days or more will peak at 6 percent of all mortgages during the first quarter of 2012, and then fall to 5 percent by year's end. This is actually a continuation of a longer-term trend that has been overlooked: delinquencies this year are expected to fall 7 percent, which follows a 7 percent decline in 2010.

The trend in the National Association of Home Builders/First American Improving Markets Index is also cause for optimism. According to the index, the number of improving housing markets expanded for a fourth-consecutive month, rising 37 percent to 41 in December from 30 in November. The index states that the expansion in both number and geographic diversity of markets is proof that markets continue to grow more heterogeneous; that is, more dependent on local factors than national ones. This is a point we've been making for the past six months.

The news on pricing was less upbeat. CoreLogic reports that house prices dipped nationally month-over-month in October. Year-over-year, prices have declined 3.9 percent, but only 0.5 percent when distressed properties are removed from the equation.

A recent report by Barclays Capital should help ease pricing concerns. According to Barclays, the housing market will be buoyed by improving job growth and by the fact that prices for non-distressed properties are stabilizing without government support. On price stabilization, Barclays housing analyst Stephen Kim writes, “[W]e are amazed at how little attention it [the recovery in non-distressed homes] has been getting from the media and the street.

”We, on the other hand, are less amazed. We've been hammering the point on stabilizing prices for months, but we also know that bad news always sells better than good news.Speaking of good news, mortgage rates continue to hold steady and near multi-decade lows. We've noticed that the yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury notes has trended lower most of this past week, which has been something of a surprise, given that the economic news, for the most part, has been positive.

Mortgage rates have been holding steady for the past month or so, but we think upward pressure is steadily building – mostly due to an improving economy and job growth (and for a reason we'll explicate below).

Courtesy of Jessica Regan.

Search all Harrisburg PA homes for sale.

When you are buying or selling property in today's Harrisburg PA real estate market, it's important to have confidence in your real estate professional. Don’s commitment as your Harrisburg PA REALTOR® is to provide you with the specialized real estate service you deserve.

When you are an informed buyer or seller, you'll make the best decisions for the most important purchase or sale in your lifetime. That's why Don’s goal is to keep you informed on trends in Harrisburg PA real estate. With property values continuing to rise, real estate is a sound investment for now and for the future.

As a local area expert with knowledge of Harrisburg PA area communities, Don’s objective is to work diligently to assist you in meeting your real estate goals.

If you are considering buying or selling a home or would just like to have additional information about real estate in your area, please don't hesitate to call me at (717) 657-8700, complete my online form, or e-mail me at don@donroth.com.

The Wall Street Journal recently reported that home affordability is at its highest level in years; this degree of affordability becomes more apparent when compared to rent prices, which continue to rise across the country.

Meanwhile, ADP 's National Employment Report showed another month of strong job growth, with the private-sector adding 206,000 new jobs for November. Accelerating job growth usually portends a strong (at least stronger) economy.

Accelerating job growth combined with a historically high affordability index suggests to us that this is the near-perfect time to buy or refinance a home, because we doubt that affordability will remain this high at the end of 2012.

The fact is that bloated inventory levels are falling, and falling inventory in many markets has spurred bidding wars. As the economy continues to improve, inventory will become less bloated and prices and financing costs will rise. It's always worth remembering that the best time to buy is when enough clouds remain to permeate the market with at least some pessimism, because the best deals are only found when the future is still clouded by uncertainty. When the clouds clear, so will the high affordability index.

Today, we have low home prices, low mortgage rates, and more job growth. In our opinion, this is the perfect time to buy or refinance, because continued job growth, a rising stock market, and a growing economy means higher home prices and higher lending rates in the future.

Courtesy of Jessica Regan.

Search all Harrisburg PA homes for sale.

When you are buying or selling property in today's Harrisburg PA real estate market, it's important to have confidence in your real estate professional. Don’s commitment as your Harrisburg PA REALTOR® is to provide you with the specialized real estate service you deserve.

When you are an informed buyer or seller, you'll make the best decisions for the most important purchase or sale in your lifetime. That's why Don’s goal is to keep you informed on trends in Harrisburg PA real estate. With property values continuing to rise, real estate is a sound investment for now and for the future.

As a local area expert with knowledge of Harrisburg PA area communities, Don’s objective is to work diligently to assist you in meeting your real estate goals.

If you are considering buying or selling a home or would just like to have additional information about real estate in your area, please don't hesitate to call me at (717) 657-8700, complete my online form, or e-mail me at don@donroth.com.

Lower prices and still-low mortgage rates continue to create traction in the existing-home market.The pending home sales index is the latest in a series of recent data releases that prove that economic laws continue to hold: lower prices stimulate demand. On that front, lower prices helped lift the index 10.4 percent to post a 93.3 reading in October. The positive takeaway here is that recent gains portend strong existing home sales for November and December and a positive sales trend heading into 2012.

New home sales have also trended higher in recent months, moving up 1.3 percent to an annualized sales rate of 307,000 units in October. The median price of a new home eased 0.5 percent month-over-month to $212,300, but the year-over-year rate turned positive, at plus 4.0 percent. The news on supply was even more encouraging, with inventory falling to 6.3 months at the current sales rate – the best reading since April 2010 when government tax credits were stimulating sales.

To be sure, pricing remains a bugaboo for new and existing homes in many markets. Lower prices do clear inventory, but they also tend to hinder participation, as more potential buyers are reluctant to buy what they perceive they are buying a depreciating asset.

But severe discounting remains confined to specific markets, notably Atlanta, Phoenix, and Las Vegas. The latter two metropolitan areas continue to post new lows. For much of the nation, though, the severe discounting that occurred from 2007 through 2009 appears to be a thing of the past. Most of the nation should continue to experience price stability, with only minor to modest discounting in selected markets.

The Federal Reserve made news last week that could impact any discounting of mortgage rates. The Fed, along with the world's major central banks, acted to provide cheap-dollar funding to European banks crippled by the debt crises that plague the Mediterranean European countries. In short, the Fed and its European confreres staved off a possible financial collapse in Europe that could have spread to the United States.

Investors responded to the central bankers' unprecedented action by moving out of U.S. Treasury securities and into stocks. The Dow Jones Industrial Average surged 4.2 percent on Wednesday to post its biggest gain since March 2009. Treasury yields also moved higher, with the yield on the 10-year Treasury note, the benchmark investment for 30-year fixed-rate loans, rising to 2.1 percent. Mortgage rates, in turn, moved higher across most financing options.

Here's something to keep in mind: Treasury yields and mortgage rates tend to rise with the stock market. If stocks continue to rise, more money will leave fixed-income investments, like Treasury securities, which could pressure mortgage rates to go higher. December tends to be a strong month for stocks, which means December could also be a month for rising mortgage rates.

Courtesy of Jessica Regan.

Search all Harrisburg PA homes for sale.

When you are buying or selling property in today's Harrisburg PA real estate market, it's important to have confidence in your real estate professional. Don’s commitment as your Harrisburg PA REALTOR® is to provide you with the specialized real estate service you deserve.

When you are an informed buyer or seller, you'll make the best decisions for the most important purchase or sale in your lifetime. That's why Don’s goal is to keep you informed on trends in Harrisburg PA real estate. With property values continuing to rise, real estate is a sound investment for now and for the future.

As a local area expert with knowledge of Harrisburg PA area communities, Don’s objective is to work diligently to assist you in meeting your real estate goals.

If you are considering buying or selling a home or would just like to have additional information about real estate in your area, please don't hesitate to call me at (717) 657-8700, complete my online form, or e-mail me at don@donroth.com.