Real Estate Information Archive

One significant mistake people often make when gauging the future is to view the future as a simple extension of today. In other words, they view the economy as static – especially after a period of turmoil – and they forget that economies, populations, and wealth continue to grow.

We broach this topic because of something famed-investor Warren Buffett recently said on CNBC. In short, Mr. Buffett said that he didn't think the housing market needed more stimulus; it needed more households to be created.

That's exactly what has occurred every decade since 1950. What's more, households have actually grown at a faster clip than population. Over the past decade, the U.S. population grew 9.5 percent, while households grew 12.5 percent (for a variety of reasons: growing population, divorce, single living, smaller families). Household growth is expected to continue to outpace population growth into the relevant future.

The point is not to focus on static numbers and to factor on future growth. More housing demand is created each year, which, in turn, helps absorb supply, which has been increasing (at least new homes) at a snail's pace over the past few years.The trend in household growth is just one more reason we look forward to an improved housing market in 2012.

Courtesy of Jessica Regan.

Search all Harrisburg PA homes for sale.

When you are buying or selling property in today's Harrisburg PA real estate market, it's important to have confidence in your real estate professional. Don’s commitment as your Harrisburg PA REALTOR® is to provide you with the specialized real estate service you deserve.

When you are an informed buyer or seller, you'll make the best decisions for the most important purchase or sale in your lifetime. That's why Don’s goal is to keep you informed on trends in Harrisburg PA real estate. With property values continuing to rise, real estate is a sound investment for now and for the future.

As a local area expert with knowledge of Harrisburg PA area communities, Don’s objective is to work diligently to assist you in meeting your real estate goals.

If you are considering buying or selling a home or would just like to have additional information about real estate in your area, please don't hesitate to call me at (717) 657-8700, complete my online form, or e-mail me at don@donroth.com.

News was relatively scarce this past week due to the Thanksgiving Day holiday, but what news was released was, for the most part, encouraging.

The news on existing home sales was particularly encouraging. Sales rose to an annual rate of 4.97 million units in October, which easily beat the consensus estimate for 4.8 million units. The bump up in sales helped drop inventory to an eight-month supply compared to September's 8.3-month supply. Year-over-year, inventory levels have dropped nearly three months.

Existing home sale prices were a little softer than we had expected, with the national median home price easing 2 percent month-over-month to $162,000. Discounting was prevalent in condo sales, but much less so in the single-family detached segment.

Shadow inventory has weighed heavily on prices for the past three years, but this market is also improving. Standard & Poor's, citing improvements in third-quarter default and liquidation rates, lowered its estimate of the time it will take to reduce excess stock to 45 months from 47 months. That's still a lot of inventory, but the goods news is that we are making headway.Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. data also point to an improving distressed-property market. The FDIC reports that inventory held by private banks dropped for the fourth-straight quarter to $50.4 billion worth of properties at the end of September, a 1.5-percent decline compared to the previous quarter and a 5-percent decline from a year ago.

There was some negative news on the economy, but it wasn't as negative as many news outlets led us to believe. Gross Domestic Product was downgraded to 2.0-percent annualized growth from a previously stated 2.5 percent. When we dug into the numbers, we found that the downgrade was much ado about little; the revision was mostly attributable to a $13-billion decrease in inventory investment.Last week, we mentioned the good news that fixed-asset investment is trending higher. This week, we are glad to note that consumer spending continues to trend higher. Personal consumption grew 0.1 percent for October, which might seem insignificant, but October's consumption follows a very strong 0.7 percent increase in September.

We haven't seen much improvement in mortgage rates over the past two weeks, which has resulted in a slowdown in refinance activity. That could be about to change. The recently revamped Home Affordable Refinance Program (HARP), with higher loan-to-value ratios and appraisal waivers for qualified buyers, is sure to spur refinance demand. In fact, more than 1 million borrowers are expected to benefit from the new HARP.This means a change in the demand/supply paradigm. When demand for borrowing increases, mortgage rates tend to rise, not fall. We advise our clients (especially clients who already qualify for a refinance under the current rules) not to wait for the new HARP rules to kick into gear.

Courtesy of Jessica Regan.

Search all Harrisburg PA homes for sale.

When you are buying or selling property in today's Harrisburg PA real estate market, it's important to have confidence in your real estate professional. Don’s commitment as your Harrisburg PA REALTOR® is to provide you with the specialized real estate service you deserve.

When you are an informed buyer or seller, you'll make the best decisions for the most important purchase or sale in your lifetime. That's why Don’s goal is to keep you informed on trends in Harrisburg PA real estate. With property values continuing to rise, real estate is a sound investment for now and for the future.

As a local area expert with knowledge of Harrisburg PA area communities, Don’s objective is to work diligently to assist you in meeting your real estate goals.

If you are considering buying or selling a home or would just like to have additional information about real estate in your area, please don't hesitate to call me at (717) 657-8700, complete my online form, or e-mail me at don@donroth.com.

This is advice we try to pass onto our clients. It's important to learn from the past, but it's just as important to focus on the future.

What we've learned from the past is to avoid an asset whose short-term growth rate has far exceeded its historical average annual growth rate. That's not what we have today with housing. We have an asset class – residential real estate – that has reverted to historical norms and is priced to appreciate going forward.

This is a difficult concept for many people to accept. We naturally anchor to the recent past, but doing so can mislead. In 2006, many people thought home prices could only go up; in 2011, many people think home prices can only go down. What we can learn from the past is that trends don't last forever. Buying assets people are selling, and selling assets people are buying, can be very profitable.

We've been saying for the past year that residential real estate is priced to be profitable. Our belief hasn't changed, which is why we continue to say real estate financed with a mortgage loan will be one of the better performing assets over the next decade.

Courtesy of Jessica Regan.

Search all Harrisburg PA homes for sale.

When you are buying or selling property in today's Harrisburg PA real estate market, it's important to have confidence in your real estate professional. Don’s commitment as your Harrisburg PA REALTOR® is to provide you with the specialized real estate service you deserve.

When you are an informed buyer or seller, you'll make the best decisions for the most important purchase or sale in your lifetime. That's why Don’s goal is to keep you informed on trends in Harrisburg PA real estate. With property values continuing to rise, real estate is a sound investment for now and for the future.

As a local area expert with knowledge of Harrisburg PA area communities, Don’s objective is to work diligently to assist you in meeting your real estate goals.

If you are considering buying or selling a home or would just like to have additional information about real estate in your area, please don't hesitate to call me at (717) 657-8700, complete my online form, or e-mail me at don@donroth.com.

If we were to survey the landscape to see if people rate the decline in housing prices as either a curse or a blessing, we are sure most would say curse. After all, most homeowners have suffered a loss of equity over the past five years.

However, there is an upside to the decline in home prices, particularly for first-time homebuyers and owners looking to trade up, and that's affordability. According to financial data provider Fiserv, the monthly mortgage payment for a median-priced single-family home is 40 percent cheaper than it was five years ago, falling to $700 from $1,140.

Lower prices are really the only way to remedy a supply glut. Watching an asset's price fall is unpleasant, to be sure, but prices fall only so far and the glut clears, and then prices generally rise.

For example, Miami was one of the most overbuilt metropolitan regions and suffered serious price deflation. But the glut in Miami appears to have cleared, thanks to lower prices stimulating more demand. In the third quarter of 2011, Miami home sales jumped 51 percent from a year ago. What's more, prices are again on the rise: the average sales price in Miami for a single-family home has risen 19 percent year-over-year.

It is more informative to focus on local numbers than it is to focus on national numbers. The National Association of Realtors reports that the national median single-family home price slipped 4.7 percent year-over-year to $169,500 in the third quarter. That said, the NAR's national median price really doesn't mean much to any specific local market.

The bottom line for us is that we've seen enough evidence of markets clearing to suggest more markets will resemble Miami in 2012. Fiserv, though expecting some price weakness over the next few months, expects most major markets to post significant price gains in the second half of 2012.

What will financing rates look like in 2012? We thought mortgage rates would be higher this year than in 2010; that hasn't been the case. The Federal Reserve has plainly stated that it is buying long-term securities in order to hold long-term borrowing rates low. It can be silly to fight the Fed.

Then again, markets can be potent forces. Consider this past week: news that another Mediterranean country, Italy , is close to insolvency did little to move interest rates or mortgage rates. In other words, investors weren't rushing into U.S. Treasury securities. In fact, Treasury rates and mortgage rates held steady for the week.

When the Greek crisis occurred, Treasury rates and mortgage rates dropped perceptibly. The fact mortgage rates hardly moved with the latest crisis suggests markets might be less willing to accept ultra-low rates in exchange for a haven from risk.

Courtesy of Jessica Regan.

Search all Harrisburg PA homes for sale.

When you are buying or selling property in today's Harrisburg PA real estate market, it's important to have confidence in your real estate professional. Don’s commitment as your Harrisburg PA REALTOR® is to provide you with the specialized real estate service you deserve.

When you are an informed buyer or seller, you'll make the best decisions for the most important purchase or sale in your lifetime. That's why Don’s goal is to keep you informed on trends in Harrisburg PA real estate. With property values continuing to rise, real estate is a sound investment for now and for the future.

As a local area expert with knowledge of Harrisburg PA area communities, Don’s objective is to work diligently to assist you in meeting your real estate goals.

If you are considering buying or selling a home or would just like to have additional information about real estate in your area, please don't hesitate to call me at (717) 657-8700, complete my online form, or e-mail me at don@donroth.com.

We all have heard or read it is a good time to purchase Harrisburg PA real estate considering the near historic interest rate environment that we are experiencing. Hopefully this chart will provide you with a perspective that you may not have considered previously. Yes, the mortgage process is a little bit challenging than in previous years but lenders are still making loans and want to make loans to qualified buyers. So when you are considering the purchase of a home hopefully this graph will give you an insight that you may not have considered before. And if you are not planning to move at this time today may be the time to consider a refinance of you existing mortgage. Because as been said many times the money should be in your pocket rather than some other entity.

If you are considering the purchase of a home and are curious of what may be available in any price range in the Harrisburg area please visit my web site, www.DonRoth.com and click on the search listings button. Or if you would like some assistance on how the home buying process works please contact me at Don@DonRoth.com.

Search all Harrisburg PA homes for sale.

When you are buying or selling property in today's Harrisburg PA real estate market, it's important to have confidence in your real estate professional. Don’s commitment as your Harrisburg PA REALTOR® is to provide you with the specialized real estate service you deserve.

When you are an informed buyer or seller, you'll make the best decisions for the most important purchase or sale in your lifetime. That's why Don’s goal is to keep you informed on trends in Harrisburg PA real estate. With property values continuing to rise, real estate is a sound investment for now and for the future.

As a local area expert with knowledge of Harrisburg PA area communities, Don’s objective is to work diligently to assist you in meeting your real estate goals.

If you are considering buying or selling a home or would just like to have additional information about real estate in your area, please don't hesitate to call me at (717) 657-8700, complete my online form, or e-mail me at don@donroth.com.

When trying to gain insight into a market, it is important to parse what people do as much as what they say. The stock market is often a good starting point to parse what people are doing as opposed to what they are saying.

We think three particular stock investments offer insight into what investors are doing with their money regarding housing: the iShares FTSE NARIET Residential Plus Capped Index (REZ), the iShares Dow Jones U.S. Home Construction ETF (ITB), and the SPDR S&P Home builders ETF (XHB). These investments cover homebuilders, home improvement stores, construction material, furnishings, and other ancillary businesses attached to the housing market.

For most of the year, these investments have been mostly flat to slightly down, but have been rallying over the past month. What we find most telling, though, is the short interest – a measure of the number of investors who bet these shares will fall. Short interest is extremely low, and has been falling. This tidbit of information suggests to us that fewer investors are bearish on housing in general, and that many more investors (compared to last year) believe the worst is behind us.

Courtesy of Jessica Regan.

Search all Harrisburg PA homes for sale.

When you are buying or selling property in today's Harrisburg PA real estate market, it's important to have confidence in your real estate professional. Don’s commitment as your Harrisburg PA REALTOR® is to provide you with the specialized real estate service you deserve.

When you are an informed buyer or seller, you'll make the best decisions for the most important purchase or sale in your lifetime. That's why Don’s goal is to keep you informed on trends in Harrisburg PA real estate. With property values continuing to rise, real estate is a sound investment for now and for the future.

As a local area expert with knowledge of Harrisburg PA area communities, Don’s objective is to work diligently to assist you in meeting your real estate goals.

If you are considering buying or selling a home or would just like to have additional information about real estate in your area, please don't hesitate to call me at (717) 657-8700, complete my online form, or e-mail me at don@donroth.com.

Popular financial media can be a good contrarian indicator. When headlines scream one thing, the opposite is more likely to follow.

We see the phenomenon repeatedly. After an extended stock-market rally, a slew of business stories arise to explain why the stock market has likely hit a permanent high. After the stock market has undergone an extended decline, multitudes of stories arise to question the sustainability of capitalism.But as predictably as day follows night, the trends these articles ride soon reach an apex, and markets move in the opposite direction.

Over the past two years, a slew of articles have lambasted homeownership. Many of these articles centered on why we would become a renter society or why homeownership was a relic of the twentieth century.

These anti-ownership writers were emboldened by the drop in homeownership rates, which had been pushed up to 70 percent during the height of the boom. The percentage rate had recently dropped to 66. Now it appears to be reversing. The Census Bureau reports that the nation's seasonally adjusted homeownership rate rose to 66.1 percent, suggesting the decline has abated, if not reversed.

A drop in the homeowner percentage was to be expected: Homeownership has hovered around the mid-60s for decades, so the decline was a matter of returning to the mean. That said, it was unlikely to go down any further. Most of us overwhelmingly prefer to own than to rent, and most of us (especially those with children) prefer the suburbs to the city.

We suspect more people will want to own when they are convinced price declines are over. On that front, Clear Capital reports that home prices increased again at a 0.6 percent rate in October. Year-over-year, though, Clear Capital reports a 2.8 percent decline.

We are always quick to point out that all real estate is local, and many local markets are showing significant improvement. Home prices in Cleveland increased 6.2 percent in September; Texas (which technically isn't local, but the news is encouraging nonetheless) saw housing starts jump 24.2 percent in September; Miami saw existing home sales hit a five-year high, surging 15.1 percent in September.

In other words, markets continue to clear, and we find it encouraging not only that lower prices have promoted more home buying in many markets, but also that firming prices suggest the worst of the discounting is over. This process should stimulate even more buyers to step forward.If it does, buyers are hitting the mortgage market at the right time. The European Union's continued travails with Greek debt have created a surge in U.S. Treasury security buying, which has helped lower mortgage rates over the past week.

However, this, too, could easily pass. Payrolls have been firming over the past couple months, which points to a strengthening economy. What's more, financial crises, like the one in Europe , that seem intractable often turn out to be quite ephemeral instead. Therefore, we still think it's risky to wait and hope for much lower mortgage rates.  

Courtesy of Jessica Regan.

Search all Harrisburg PA homes for sale.

When you are buying or selling property in today's Harrisburg PA real estate market, it's important to have confidence in your real estate professional. Don’s commitment as your Harrisburg PA REALTOR® is to provide you with the specialized real estate service you deserve.

When you are an informed buyer or seller, you'll make the best decisions for the most important purchase or sale in your lifetime. That's why Don’s goal is to keep you informed on trends in Harrisburg PA real estate. With property values continuing to rise, real estate is a sound investment for now and for the future.

As a local area expert with knowledge of Harrisburg PA area communities, Don’s objective is to work diligently to assist you in meeting your real estate goals.

If you are considering buying or selling a home or would just like to have additional information about real estate in your area, please don't hesitate to call me at (717) 657-8700, complete my online form, or e-mail me at don@donroth.com.

Rismedia.com reports there are various signals that the real estate market is on the rise. They have recently reported statistics pointing to an industry turnaround, including a 15 percent rise in housing starts in September; a surge in builder confidence in October, an increase in mortgage applications and a slew of regional market improvements across the country.

A recent Marketwatch story written by Amy Hoak points out that housing markets in the Great Plains, including those in North and South Dakota, Texas, Wyoming, Nebraska, Louisiana and Iowa, are showing the most signs of strength these days, according to a recent report from Veros, a risk management and valuation services firm.

Hoak notes that Bismarck, North Dakota., is expected to be the strongest market in the country in the year ahead, with housing values appreciating at a 5.6% clip, according to Veros. Our Harrisburg/Carlisle market is projected to be among the strongest to rebound in 2012 making now a great time to buy!! Get your dream home now before prices start to go up.

Search all Harrisburg PA homes for sale.

When you are buying or selling property in today's Harrisburg PA real estate market, it's important to have confidence in your real estate professional. Don’s commitment as your Harrisburg PA REALTOR® is to provide you with the specialized real estate service you deserve.

When you are an informed buyer or seller, you'll make the best decisions for the most important purchase or sale in your lifetime. That's why Don’s goal is to keep you informed on trends in Harrisburg PA real estate. With property values continuing to rise, real estate is a sound investment for now and for the future.

As a local area expert with knowledge of Harrisburg PA area communities, Don’s objective is to work diligently to assist you in meeting your real estate goals.

If you are considering buying or selling a home or would just like to have additional information about real estate in your area, please don't hesitate to call me at (717) 657-8700, complete my online form, or e-mail me at don@donroth.com.