Real Estate Information Archive

The MBA expects purchase originations to climb to $585 billion in 2013, up from an estimated $503 billion in 2012. That's the good news.

The bad news is that there should be even more purchase originations. Housing and Urban Development Department data show that 10% to 20% of qualified borrowers are not getting approved for loans. We believe that figure under reports the problem.

So why are too few qualified borrowers getting their loan? The answer centers on regulation and private participation.

As for regulation, it's simply too heavy handed, which discourages risk taking by lenders. We find a comment by new MBA Chairperson Debra Still revealing. She says, “Clearly, we are still in the penalty phase of the housing crisis,” meaning that lenders are still paying for past digressions. That's hurting many of today's qualified borrowers.

We also find it interesting that the government-sponsored agencies –Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, Ginnie Mae – want more private capital in the housing finance system. We couldn't agree more, because more capital sources and more participants create a more diverse and accommodating lending environment.

Unfortunately, overly strict regulation and artificially low interest rates are keeping private capital on the sidelines. Private capital requires more lending freedom and a higher rate of return on investment than public capital.

Fortunately, stronger economic growth, which we expect in 2013, should loosen the shackles. Both lenders and regulators become less risk averse when economic growth is rising. Rising growth also brings rising interest rates, and that's not bad. Higher rates will attract more private capital.

In short, we expect to see a more robust lending environment next year, which should also be a higher lending-rate environment. And that's a good thing.

Courtesy of Jessica Regan.

Search all Harrisburg PA homes for sale.

When you are buying or selling property in today's Harrisburg PA real estate market, it's important to have confidence in your real estate professional. Don’s commitment as your Harrisburg PA REALTOR® is to provide you with the specialized real estate service you deserve.

When you are an informed buyer or seller, you'll make the best decisions for the most important purchase or sale in your lifetime. That's why Don’s goal is to keep you informed on trends in Harrisburg PA real estate. With property values continuing to rise, real estate is a sound investment for now and for the future.

As a local area expert with knowledge of Harrisburg PA area communities, Don’s objective is to work diligently to assist you in meeting your real estate goals.

If you are considering buying or selling a home or would just like to have additional information about real estate in your area, please don't hesitate to call me at (717) 657-8700, complete my online form, or e-mail me at don@donroth.com.

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke has a thing for housing. Most of the Fed's monetary policies over the past three years have focused on re-igniting the housing market.

Whether through Fed policy or market forces, a flame has taken hold. The new home market is becoming a driving force behind economic growth. To that end, sales of new homes rose 5.7% in September to an annualized rate of 389,000 units. This latest increase puts the market back to March 2010 sales levels. Back then, sales were propped up by federal home-buyer tax credits.

Supply of new homes, at a mere 4.5 months, is tight. Tight supply, along with increased demand, has pushed the national median sales price up 11.7% year over year to $242,400. Couple increased demand with higher prices and we get more home construction down the road.

More construction is good news for the economy. Residential real estate investment has historically averaged 5% of GDP, while housing services have averaged between 12% and 13%, for a combined 17% to 18% of GDP. We're still not close to that level today. Despite the strong gains in new-home sales, 2012 will be the third or fourth lowest sales year since 1963. That means there is still a lot of upside potential in this market.

Current sales and construction trends point to a strong new-home market in 2013. The spill-over effect to the overall economy points to stronger economic growth.

Mortgage lending rates on all this new home construction, as well as on existing homes and refinances, continue to hold their multi-decade lows. More important, purchase applications have taken measurable strides forward in the past month.

We still don't see mortgage rates rising materially in the near future (and we don't see them falling materially lower either). For this, we can thank the Federal Reserve.

The Fed remains committed to buying $40 billion of mortgage-backed securities each month, which creates demand for mortgage loans on the secondary market. What's more, the Fed is committed to purchasing these securities in the same monthly amounts through 2013. The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) estimates the Fed will be purchasing nearly 50% of all mortgage originations by the end of next year.

The point we want to emphasis is that mortgage lending rates will have a tough time moving higher. Notice we say “tough,” not impossible. If the trend in new-home construction and sales continues, the economy will grow, and it could grow at a quicker pace than the Fed governors anticipate. Higher economic growth leads to higher interest rates.

Courtesy of Jessica Regan.

Search all Harrisburg PA homes for sale.

When you are buying or selling property in today's Harrisburg PA real estate market, it's important to have confidence in your real estate professional. Don’s commitment as your Harrisburg PA REALTOR® is to provide you with the specialized real estate service you deserve.

When you are an informed buyer or seller, you'll make the best decisions for the most important purchase or sale in your lifetime. That's why Don’s goal is to keep you informed on trends in Harrisburg PA real estate. With property values continuing to rise, real estate is a sound investment for now and for the future.

As a local area expert with knowledge of Harrisburg PA area communities, Don’s objective is to work diligently to assist you in meeting your real estate goals.

If you are considering buying or selling a home or would just like to have additional information about real estate in your area, please don't hesitate to call me at (717) 657-8700, complete my online form, or e-mail me at don@donroth.com.

Home Builders are a lot more optimistic these days. In fact, the latest home builder sentiment index posted at 41 for October – the highest posting in nearly six years.

More interested buyers are driving optimism. The traffic component of the home builder index jumped sharply this month, posting at 35 – the highest level since the boom days of 2006.

Rising builder optimism coupled with rising buyer demand is spurring a surge in building activity. September home starts rose strongly to an annual rate of 872,000 units. This is a 16.3% increase over the annual rate posted in August. The multifamily component spiked 25.1%, but the more important single-family component was up 11%, which means it has recovered to mid-2008 levels.

The good news is the housing market is much healthier today than it was in 2008. Back then, we suspected the market was worsening, but we didn't realize how bad it would get. Going from a top to a bottom is painful, because expectations are much higher at a top than at a bottom. Going from a bottom to a top tends not to arouse much emotion, but it does tend to be very remunerative over the long term.

Today, the market is firming up nicely; mainly because we are aware of the issues and dealing with them rationally.

Distressed properties is one of those issues. We've spoken at length on the shift to short sales from foreclosures. Calculatedriskblog.com reports on how dramatic the shift has been. In Las Vegas, short sales are now three times foreclosures. In Phoenix and Sacramento, short sales outpace foreclosures by a two-to-one margin. Moreover, the overall percentage of distressed sales is down year over year in most major markets.

That said, inventory could be the sand that grinds the recovery gears. Existing home sales have been hindered in recent months due to lack of inventory. (Hard to believe that most pundits were forecasting that too much inventory would be an issue in 2012.) For-sale inventories declined on a year-over-year basis in 143 of the 146 markets tracked by Realtor.com. Fifty two cities saw year-over-year declines greater than 20%.

We don't expect inventory to be a lasting issue, though. As home prices continue to rise, more inventory will be drawn into the market.

Falling mortgage lending rates have also contributed to rising home-buyer interest. It's no coincidence that purchase applications have moved inversely with lending rates: as lending rates have fallen, purchase applications have risen. As long as the Federal Reserve continues to buy mortgage-backed securities, lending rates should continue to hold today's low levels.

Courtesy of Jessica Regan.

Search all Harrisburg PA homes for sale.

When you are buying or selling property in today's Harrisburg PA real estate market, it's important to have confidence in your real estate professional. Don’s commitment as your Harrisburg PA REALTOR® is to provide you with the specialized real estate service you deserve.

When you are an informed buyer or seller, you'll make the best decisions for the most important purchase or sale in your lifetime. That's why Don’s goal is to keep you informed on trends in Harrisburg PA real estate. With property values continuing to rise, real estate is a sound investment for now and for the future.

As a local area expert with knowledge of Harrisburg PA area communities, Don’s objective is to work diligently to assist you in meeting your real estate goals.

If you are considering buying or selling a home or would just like to have additional information about real estate in your area, please don't hesitate to call me at (717) 657-8700, complete my online form, or e-mail me at don@donroth.com.

The most recent employment report showed the unemployment rate dropped to 7.8% and job growth posted at a higher-than-expected 114,000 new jobs in September. Is this the start of a new trend?

It might be.

Data compiled by Bill McBride at Calculatedriskblog show a strong correlation between housing construction and job growth. It appears the two variables are correlated, but with a lag of about 12 to 18 months. As home construction goes employment eventually follows.

If past proves to be prologue, we could see significant improvement in employment in 2013.

The question, though, is past really prologue? Possibly not. The unemployment rate has already been maintaining an inverse pace with single-family construction for much of the past 18 months.

But this time it really is different: In 2010 and 2011, we were ascending out of deep recession and housing was suffering with excessive inventory. During that time, job growth was being driven by other economic sectors. Now, with housing construction recovering strongly, this sector will contribute more to job growth going forward.

More housing construction will lead to more jobs and more household formation. Therefore, we think 2013 will be a good year for housing and overall economic growth. Stronger economic growth, in turn, will lead to rising home prices and possibly rising mortgage lending rates. That's something all fence-sitters should keep in mind if they think better deals reside over the horizon.

Courtesy of Jessica Regan.

Search all Harrisburg PA homes for sale.

When you are buying or selling property in today's Harrisburg PA real estate market, it's important to have confidence in your real estate professional. Don’s commitment as your Harrisburg PA REALTOR® is to provide you with the specialized real estate service you deserve.

When you are an informed buyer or seller, you'll make the best decisions for the most important purchase or sale in your lifetime. That's why Don’s goal is to keep you informed on trends in Harrisburg PA real estate. With property values continuing to rise, real estate is a sound investment for now and for the future.

As a local area expert with knowledge of Harrisburg PA area communities, Don’s objective is to work diligently to assist you in meeting your real estate goals.

If you are considering buying or selling a home or would just like to have additional information about real estate in your area, please don't hesitate to call me at (717) 657-8700, complete my online form, or e-mail me at don@donroth.com.

There is an old financial axiom known to many investors, and that is “Don't Fight the Fed.” This means when the Federal Reserve sets out on a course of action it's often remunerative to tag along.

The Fed has openly and unabashedly set out on a course to get residential real estate prices moving higher. To that end, the Fed has stated it will continue to purchase mortgage-backed securities (MBS) at a rate of $40 billion a month. These purchases ensure a market for low-rate securities, and thus ensures mortgage lending rates will remain low. In fact, analysts at Deutsche Bank estimate these purchases will hold lending rates about 50 basis points lower than they would otherwise be.

Concurrently, the Fed is purchasing these MBS with new money. This means consumer prices, including home prices, will be pressured to rise (more money will be chasing the same amount of goods and services). Therefore, we are very bullish on home prices rising over the next five years just based on price inflation alone (though we also expect fundamentals to continue to improve).

We can't think of a better time to buy a home, and to buy with mortgage financing. Low-cost leverage, which a mortgage provides, means the return on investment will be much higher on invested funds than with a full cash purchase.

What's more, buyers will also have the benefit of amortizing their loans with depreciated dollars.In short, there is no reason for anyone interested in residential real estate not to take the plunge today.

Courtesy of Jessica Regan.

Search all Harrisburg PA homes for sale.

When you are buying or selling property in today's Harrisburg PA real estate market, it's important to have confidence in your real estate professional. Don’s commitment as your Harrisburg PA REALTOR® is to provide you with the specialized real estate service you deserve.

When you are an informed buyer or seller, you'll make the best decisions for the most important purchase or sale in your lifetime. That's why Don’s goal is to keep you informed on trends in Harrisburg PA real estate. With property values continuing to rise, real estate is a sound investment for now and for the future.

As a local area expert with knowledge of Harrisburg PA area communities, Don’s objective is to work diligently to assist you in meeting your real estate goals.

If you are considering buying or selling a home or would just like to have additional information about real estate in your area, please don't hesitate to call me at (717) 657-8700, complete my online form, or e-mail me at don@donroth.com.

At the beginning of the year, we were in the minority: we thought 2012 would see improving home prices in more metropolitan markets across the country.

We've been surprised on the price front, and delightfully so, because we didn't expect the price recovery to be as pervasive and as strong as it has been. What's more, the data on pricing continue to point to higher home prices in even more markets.

Indeed, CoreLogic's Pending Home Price Index for August shows that home prices rose 4.6% year over year, posting the biggest annual increase since 2006. Looking at monthly data, August posted a 0.3% increase over July, which marks the six-consecutive monthly increase.

Additional price data from Trulia show that asking prices on for-sale homes – which lead sales prices by approximately two months – increased 2.5% year over year in September and 0.5% compared to August. According to Trulia, 2012 will see an annual increase in asking prices for the first time in six years. Trulia’s Chief Economist Jed Kolko says, “Right now, prices are recovering across the country, with few local markets left behind.” Our own empirical observations confirm Mr. Kolko's conclusion.

We've been watching one particular market with keen anticipation all year, and that's Las Vegas. We knew that it would be only a matter of time before a recovery took hold. It appears the wait is finally ended. Clear Capital's data show home prices in Las Vegas increased 8% in September. What's more, Clear Capital expects Las Vegas home prices to increase another 9.5% over the next six months.

One of our more-frequent refrains over the past two years is that markets eventually clear. Lower prices always stimulate demand. Higher demand, in turn, stimulates higher prices. Thankfully, the market is finally clearing in beleaguered Las Vegas.

We expect to see home prices in Las Vegas and in many other large metropolitan markets to continue to improve in coming years. We are not alone in this prognostication. Analysts at Goldman Sachs released a research note this week that projects continued price improvement. What's more, Goldman expects higher home prices even in its downside scenario.

So, we have a market of rising home prices and a market of falling lending rates. In fact, mortgage lending rates were down again this past week. Lower rates have stimulated another surge in refinances. More encouraging, lower rates have aroused more purchase-application activity.

We look forward to even more purchase-application activity. Rising home prices mean less negative equity. Less negative equity, in turn, means more people will be in a position to sell without bringing additional funds to the table.

Courtesy of Jessica Regan.

Search all Harrisburg PA homes for sale.

When you are buying or selling property in today's Harrisburg PA real estate market, it's important to have confidence in your real estate professional. Don’s commitment as your Harrisburg PA REALTOR® is to provide you with the specialized real estate service you deserve.

When you are an informed buyer or seller, you'll make the best decisions for the most important purchase or sale in your lifetime. That's why Don’s goal is to keep you informed on trends in Harrisburg PA real estate. With property values continuing to rise, real estate is a sound investment for now and for the future.

As a local area expert with knowledge of Harrisburg PA area communities, Don’s objective is to work diligently to assist you in meeting your real estate goals.

If you are considering buying or selling a home or would just like to have additional information about real estate in your area, please don't hesitate to call me at (717) 657-8700, complete my online form, or e-mail me at don@donroth.com.

In the old days, and we are not talking that old, renting was usually viewed as a cheaper alternative to buying. How times have change. Today, it's actually cheaper to buy than to rent in the major U.S. cities, according to data released by Trulia Research in its Summer 2012 Rent vs. Buy Report.

Trulia's report doesn't simply compare a monthly mortgage payment to a monthly rent payment. It factors in all cost components, including transaction costs, upkeep, taxes, and opportunity costs. With a 3.5% fixed-rate mortgage, itemized deductions at the 25% federal tax bracket, and a seven-year time horizon, home ownership is cheaper than renting in all of the 100 largest U.S metropolitan regions Trulia follows.

We are not talking about small differences either. In fact, in many of the markets Trulia tracks the differences are quite staggering. 

Even in more fashionable districts, the difference remains pronounced: Buying a home is 24% cheaper than renting in Honolulu, 28% cheaper in San Francisco, and 31% cheaper in New York.

If potential clients need another reason why they should consider buying over renting, Trulia's report could prove quite persuasive. If they need another reason, just point to today's ulta-low lending rates.

Courtesy of Jessica Regan.

Search all Harrisburg PA homes for sale.

When you are buying or selling property in today's Harrisburg PA real estate market, it's important to have confidence in your real estate professional. Don’s commitment as your Harrisburg PA REALTOR® is to provide you with the specialized real estate service you deserve.

When you are an informed buyer or seller, you'll make the best decisions for the most important purchase or sale in your lifetime. That's why Don’s goal is to keep you informed on trends in Harrisburg PA real estate. With property values continuing to rise, real estate is a sound investment for now and for the future.

As a local area expert with knowledge of Harrisburg PA area communities, Don’s objective is to work diligently to assist you in meeting your real estate goals.

If you are considering buying or selling a home or would just like to have additional information about real estate in your area, please don't hesitate to call me at (717) 657-8700, complete my online form, or e-mail me at don@donroth.com.

The problem with home-price data issued by S&P/Case-Shiller and the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) is that it's two-months in arrears. In today's age of instantaneous everything, two months can seem like an eternity.

Truth be told, other price-data providers – Trulia, CoreLogic, Zillow – are more current with their releases, which is why we tend to downplay the price data issued by Case-Shiller and FHFA.

That said, Case-Shiller and the FHFA have street cred among many market watchers, so they're findings are worth mentioning, especially when they continue to support the previously released data from other price providers.

Most of the previously released data already show that home prices trended higher, though at a slower pace, in July and August; therefore, we weren't surprised to see that Case-Shiller's and the FHFA's data also show prices trending higher but at a slower pace in July. Case-Shiller reported that prices increased for a sixth-consecutive month at a 0.4% rate in its 20-city index; FHFA's index showed prices increased 0.2%.

Rising prices have taken some of the steam out of new-home sales, which slipped 0.3% in August. Home builders might have sold fewer homes for the month, but the homes they did sell were fetching a far higher price. The average price for a new home was up a whopping 9.1% to $295,300 for August, which pushed the year-over-year rate of increase up to 13.9%.

We now see that the average price for a new home has risen to mid-2008 levels.

We don't expect the price trend to reverse either. Supply remains at an ultra-low level at only 141,000 homes for sale. Low supply will keep prices elevated while at the same time encourage home builders to start new projects (thus contributing to economic growth). In fact, housing starts are now at a level unseen in four years.

There is another positive to rising home prices, and that's rising levels of equity. Of course, that doesn't apply to new home, but existing home sales have also risen in 2012. In fact, they've risen to the point that economists at Deutsche Bank calculate that home equity grew by $827 billion over the past four reported quarters (ending with the second quarter of 2012.)

Rising levels of home equity means less negative equity and more consumers who are able to buy and sell a home. It also means fewer mortgage defaults; fewer borrowers default when they find themselves in a positive-equity position.

The above graph also highlights the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage, which hit a new all-time low this past week. A number of factors contributed to the rate drop: Gross domestic product being unexpectedly revised down to 1.3% from 1.7% for the second quarter was a leading factor.

The Federal Reserve's purchases of mortgage-backed securities (MBS) was another. Earlier this month, the Fed announced it would step up purchases of these security. The impact on mortgage lending rates has been immediate. Moreover, as long as the Fed continues to purchase these securities, and it has promised to purchase up to $40 billion a month, it appears unlikely that rates will move materially higher anytime soon.

Search all Harrisburg PA homes for sale.

When you are buying or selling property in today's Harrisburg PA real estate market, it's important to have confidence in your real estate professional. Don’s commitment as your Harrisburg PA REALTOR® is to provide you with the specialized real estate service you deserve.

When you are an informed buyer or seller, you'll make the best decisions for the most important purchase or sale in your lifetime. That's why Don’s goal is to keep you informed on trends in Harrisburg PA real estate. With property values continuing to rise, real estate is a sound investment for now and for the future.

As a local area expert with knowledge of Harrisburg PA area communities, Don’s objective is to work diligently to assist you in meeting your real estate goals.

If you are considering buying or selling a home or would just like to have additional information about real estate in your area, please don't hesitate to call me at (717) 657-8700, complete my online form, or e-mail me at don@donroth.com.